オバマ演説 指導力回復へ全力尽くす時だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun
United States must do everything possible to regain global leadership
オバマ演説　指導力回復へ全力尽くす時だ

It is hard to say that the United States is sufficiently exercising its leadership in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear development and the threat of terrorism by extremist groups. We hope the United States will proactively work to solve these issues.
　北朝鮮の核開発や過激派によるテロの脅威への対処で、米国の指導力が十分に発揮されているとは言い難い。懸案の解決に向けて、積極的に取り組んでもらいたい。

In his final State of the Union address, U.S. President Barack Obama said, “Priority No. 1 is going after terrorist networks” and indicated his intention to go all out to destroy the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) extremist group.
　オバマ大統領は施政方針となる任期最後の一般教書演説で、「最優先課題はテロリストのネットワークを追いつめることだ」と述べ、過激派組織「イスラム国」壊滅に全力を挙げる意向を示した。

Yet he fell short of unveiling any concrete measures to defeat ISIL. As things stand now, it will be difficult for him to make any significant achievements in his remaining year in office.
　だが、打倒への具体的な道筋は明らかにしなかった。このままでは、残り任期１年で大きな成果を上げるのは困難だろう。

The modus operandi of limiting military operations and emphasizing international cooperation unless the United States and its allies face a direct threat is showing its limitations. Shouldn’t Washington consider sending out additional special forces?
　米国や同盟国が直接の脅威に直面しない限り、軍事行動を控え、国際協調を重視する手法は限界を露呈している。米軍特殊部隊の増派も検討すべきではないか。

It is also questionable that Obama declared the continuation of the half-measure strategy that “we keep America safe and lead the world without becoming its policeman.”
　「世界の警察官にならずに米国の安全を維持し、世界を導く」という中途半端な戦略の継続を表明したのも疑問だ。

North Korea has conducted nuclear tests as many as three times while Obama has been in office, taking much of the luster from his comments about “a world without nuclear weapons,” which he advocated in a Prague speech shortly after he took office.
　北朝鮮は、オバマ政権下で３回も核実験を行い、就任直後のプラハ演説で唱えた「核兵器のない世界」はすっかり色あせた。

In his State of the Union address three years ago, the president pledged to take “firm action” in response to a nuclear test conducted by North Korea. This time, however, he made no reference to Pyongyang’s latest test.
　３年前の一般教書演説では、北朝鮮の核実験に「断固とした行動」を明言したのに、今回は言及しなかった。

N. Korea strategy at dead end?

This can be interpreted as Washington reaching a dead end in its strategy in dealing with North Korea. Vis a vis the state, it is important to explore ways to hold a dialogue depending on its behavior, while increasing pressure.
戦略の行き詰まりとも受け取られよう。北朝鮮には圧力を強化しつつ、相手の出方に応じて対話も模索することが肝要だ。

We also think Washington should have taken prompter, stronger action against China, as the country is turning the artificial islands it has built into military strongholds in the South China Sea. To prevent China from accelerating its attempts to change the status quo by force, it is also vital for U.S. military vessels to regularly sail near the artificial islands.
　南シナ海で中国が進める人工島の軍事拠点化に対しても、より迅速で強力な行動が必要だったのではないか。「力による現状変更」を加速させないためには、人工島付近での艦艇航行を定期的に実施することも欠かせない。

It was appropriate that Obama called on Congress to swiftly approve the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, saying, “With TPP, China does not set the rules in that region; we do.” Washington should learn from its failed approach of prioritizing cooperation with China while turning a blind eye to human rights and other issues.
　環太平洋経済連携協定（ＴＰＰ）について、オバマ氏が「中国でなく、我々が地域のルールを作る」と、議会に早期承認を求めたのは適切である。中国の人権問題などに目をつぶり、協調を優先して失敗した教訓を生かすべきだ。

In his speech, Obama emphasized his achievements over the past seven years and the continuation of his policies, rather than concrete solutions for these problems.
　オバマ氏は演説で、問題の具体的な解決策よりも、７年間の実績と政策の継続に重点を置いた。

The Obama administration deserves credit for weathering the financial crisis under way at the time it was inaugurated and for implementing its rebalancing policy, which focuses on Asia and has promoted the reinforcement of the Japan-U.S. alliance.
　政権発足時の金融危機を克服し、「アジア重視」政策や日米同盟強化を進めたことは評価できる。

It was also reasonable for Obama to cite such achievements as the country’s normalizing diplomatic ties with Cuba, reaching a nuclear accord with Iran and inking the Paris accord on measures against climate change.
キューバとの国交回復やイラン核合意、気候変動対策のパリ協定を成果としたのももっともだ。

He spoke of his policies of promoting reform of the medical insurance system and immigration system, and pursuing gun control. U.S. citizens are divided on these issues, and the split in public opinion is becoming more serious.
　医療保険制度改革や移民制度改革、銃規制を推進する方針を示したが、米国民の賛否は分かれ、国論の分裂は深刻化している。

Obama must take seriously the situation illustrated in recent public opinion polls, which have found that about 70 percent of people think the country is heading in the wrong direction.
　世論調査で約７割が「米国は悪い方向に進んでいる」と回答している現実を、オバマ氏は真摯しんしに受け止めねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 14, 2016)

朝鮮半島緊張 北のさらなる挑発を許さない

The Yomiuri Shimbun
World must refuse to tolerate further provocation by North Korea
朝鮮半島緊張　北のさらなる挑発を許さない

Triggered by North Korea’s latest nuclear test, tensions are running high on the Korean Peninsula. Further military provocation by that country absolutely cannot be tolerated.
　北朝鮮による核実験を機に、朝鮮半島の緊張が高まっている。北朝鮮のさらなる軍事挑発は、断じて容認できない。

The U.S. forces flew a B-52 strategic bomber over South Korea. “This was a demonstration of the ironclad U.S. commitment to our allies in South Korea and in Japan,” Adm. Harry Harris, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, said in a statement.
　米軍のＢ５２戦略爆撃機が韓国上空を飛行した。米太平洋軍のハリス司令官は、「同盟国である韓国と日本への防衛義務に対する決意を示すものだ」とする声明を発表した。

It was greatly significant for the United States to take swift action to demonstrate its deterrent power in an effort to maintain regional stability.
　米国が地域の安定を維持するために、迅速な行動で抑止力を体現した意義は大きい。

The B-52 bomber, a plane that can carry nuclear bombs and cruise missiles, is said to be one of the U.S. weapons about which North Korea has the deepest concern. It also has a long flight range. In the latest flyover, the U.S. bomber took off from and returned to an air base in Guam.
　Ｂ５２は、核爆弾や巡航ミサイルの搭載が可能で、北朝鮮が最も警戒する兵器の一つだとされる。航続距離が長く、今回はグアムの空軍基地から往復した。

It is essential for the United States to strongly and repeatedly warn North Korea that no act of military provocation, such as an artillery attack on the South, will be tolerated. U.S. military options under consideration for the immediate future include the deployment of a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and a stealth fighter.
　米国が北朝鮮に対して、韓国側への砲撃などの軍事挑発は許さないという強い警告を与え続けることが肝要である。今後は、原子力空母やステルス戦闘機などの展開も検討されている。

Two days after the North’s nuclear test, South Korea resumed loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts condemning its northern neighbor’s regime in the vicinity of the Demilitarized Zone. This was based on South Korea’s conclusion that the latest nuclear test constituted “an extraordinary situation” in which the country could restart propaganda broadcasts. In August, the South and the North had reached a deal under which anti-Pyongyang propaganda would not be resumed unless such a situation arose.
　韓国は核実験の２日後、軍事境界線付近で、北朝鮮の体制を非難する宣伝放送を再開した。核実験が、昨年８月の南北合意で決めた放送再開の条件である「異常事態」に当たると判断したためだ。

Bitterly antagonized by the South Korean action, the North has reportedly reinforced frontline troops. All this is giving rise to aggravating hostility between the North and South.
　北朝鮮は強く反発し、軍の前線部隊を増強したとされる。南北対立は激化している。

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, first secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, is attempting to justify the nuclear test by calling it “a self-defensive measure to defend the sovereignty of the country and vital rights of the nation.” His statement is a self-righteous assertion that ignores international condemnation, and it is utterly unacceptable.
　金正恩第１書記は、核実験について、「国の自主権と民族の生存権を守る自衛的措置だ」と正当化しようとしている。国際社会の非難を顧みない独善的な主張であり、到底受け入れられない。

An array of sanctions

At the initiative of the United States, the U.N. Security Council is proceeding with work to draft a resolution aimed at imposing sanctions on North Korea. Attention is focused largely on such measures as restrictions on banking transactions involving North Korea and restraint on port calls by North Korean ships. The envisaged sanctions must be made effective enough to make North Korea pay the price for its nuclear testing.
　国連安全保障理事会では、米国が中心となって、制裁決議案作りが進んでいる。北朝鮮との銀行取引規制や船舶の入港制限の強化などが焦点になる。核実験を実施した北朝鮮に代償を払わせるため、実効性のある制裁にすべきだ。

What is important is for pertinent nations to take concerted action to reinforce sanctions against North Korea. China, a country that can exert influence on North Korea, must fully cooperate with other nations in adopting the resolution and strictly implementing it.
　大切なのは、関係国が制裁強化で足並みをそろえることである。北朝鮮に影響力のある中国は、決議案の採択と厳格な履行に全面的に協力せねばならない。

In video footage used in a recent program aired by Korean Central Television that focused on Kim, an image of Liu Yunshan — a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee — has been removed. The initial footage showed Liu attending a military parade in Pyongyang last October.
　朝鮮中央テレビが放映した金第１書記の記録映像では、昨年１０月の軍事パレードに参列した中国共産党の劉雲山政治局常務委員の姿をカットした。

There is reason to believe the deletion of Liu’s image was intended to serve as a restraining influence on China, which has denounced the recent nuclear test and is joining talks over a resolution against the North Korea.
核実験を非難し、決議案協議に関わる中国を牽制けんせいする思惑があったのではないか。

Japan, a nonpermanent member of the Security Council, should be proactively involved in promoting negotiations over the envisaged resolution. In commenting on anti-Pyongyang sanctions to be imposed by Japan on its own, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said, “Stern measures will be adopted.”
　非常任理事国である日本も、決議案協議に積極的に関与したい。安倍首相は、日本の独自制裁についても、「厳しい対応をとっていく」と表明した。

Japan, the United States and South Korea will hold a string of talks at the level of bureau chief and vice minister this week. It is important for the three nations to closely cooperate with each other to prevent North Korea from going out of control.
　日米韓は今週、外務省の局長級、次官協議を相次いで開く。３か国が緊密に連携し、北朝鮮の暴走を抑えることが重要だ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 13, 2016)

香山リカのココロの万華鏡: 脳科学と人の心 ／東京

January 10, 2016 (Mainichi Japan)
Kaleidoscope of the Heart: Brain science and the human spirit
香山リカのココロの万華鏡: 脳科学と人の心　／東京

I wonder what kind of year this is going to be.
　今年はどんな年になるのだろう。

As a psychiatrist, this year is likely to be one wherein I will take a fresh look at the question of just what exactly is the human spirit.
精神科医の私にとっては、あらためて「人の心って何だろう」と考える年になりそうだ。

The advances recently made in the field of brain science have been astounding.
近年の脳科学の進歩はすさまじい。

Ohio State University announced last year that it had finally utilized pluripotent stem cells derived from human skin cells in order to culture an eraser-sized "miniature brain," which included nearly all of the genes of a 5-week-old fetus.
昨年はついに、アメリカのオハイオ州立大学で人間の皮膚細胞由来の多能性幹細胞を使って、妊娠５週の胎児の脳のほぼすべての遺伝子を持った消しゴムサイズの“ミニチュア脳”が培養されたと報じられた。

It seems clear, then, that it will become possible within a short time frame to reproduce a human brain.
おそらく近い将来、誰かの脳をもう一つ作ることも可能になるに違いない。

On second thought, however, I'll bet that before this occurs, analyses of the brain's neural networks will proceed in a manner such that people will be able to replicate their own brain on a computer.
　いや、その前に脳の神経ネットワークの解析が進み、自分の脳をそのままコンピューター上に再現することができるかもしれない。

I remember a scene from a science fiction movie where a woman was able to converse with a computer that utilized the same pattern as the brain of her dead husband. Soon, this will actually become a reality.
ＳＦ映画では「亡くなった夫の脳と同じパターンを持ったコンピューターと妻が対話する」といったシーンも出てくるが、それが間もなく現実になろうとしているのだ。

Let's imagine that this does indeed occur.
　「もしそうなったら」と想像してみよう。

A vendor providing a "replacement brain" service comes to your house, picks up skin and hair samples of your dead family member from off the floor, and takes them away.
「脳復元サービス」の業者があなたの家を訪れ、すでに世を去ったあなたの家族の皮膚や髪の毛の一部を床から拾い上げ、持ち帰る。

You later receive notification that the artificial brain is ready, and it is delivered to your home along with an attached apparatus that allows you to converse with it.
しばらくすると「完成しました」と連絡が来て、人工の脳とそれに接続された会話装置が届く。

You flip the switch, and the nostalgic voice of your relative says, "It's been a long time! Are you studying like you should be?
I know you don't like English!" Naturally, you are also able to hold conversations with the device -- meaning that you can laugh and fight with your family member just like you always did before.
スイッチを入れると「久しぶり。ちゃんと勉強してる？　あなたは英語が苦手だから」となつかしい家族の声が聞こえてくる。もちろん対話も可能。昔と同じように笑い合ったりケンカしたりすることもできる……。

Some people are likely to think, "This is amazing! I hope this will become a reality as soon as possible!"
　「すごい。早く実現しないかな」と思う人もいるかもしれない。

Many others, however, probably feel that no matter how much a particular response pattern is able to be duplicated, it could never take the place of their beloved kin.
しかし、多くの人は、「いや、いくら反応のパターンは同じでも、それは私の愛する家族ではない」と感じるのではないだろうか。

And even if one's own brain were able to be simulated via this type of service, few are those who would feel as if they had actually attained the ability to live forever.
また、そういうサービスで自分の脳が再現されたとしても「永遠の命が手に入った」と考える人は少ないはずだ。

If this is the case, then, what does it mean to exist as a particular human being?
　だとしたら「その人である」とはいったい何なのだろう。

Is it the act of possessing a body?
からだがあるということか。

This is clearly not so, since the relatives or lover of someone whose face or other bodily features had become greatly disfigured in an accident would be unlikely to conclude that the individual had suddenly become a different person.
それは違う。事故などで顔やからだが大きく損傷されても、家族や恋人は「もうあなたではない別人になった」とは思わないはずだ。

This being the case, then, it is clear that there is a deep connection between existing as an individual being human being and the fact that we have only one life -- even though no one yet possesses a definitive answer with respect to this matter.
そう考えると、「その人である」ということと「命が一度きりであること」は深く関係しているようだ。ただ、この問題についてのはっきりした答えはまだ誰も手にしていない。

Every single individual who sits with lowered eyes and sheds tears while sitting in my office possesses their own unique spirit, and is living their one unique life -- a fact in and of itself that explains the reason why we all get hurt and suffer.
　診察室でうつむく人、涙をこぼす人。みんな「自分だけの心」を持ち、「一度きりの人生」を生きているからこそ、傷ついて苦しむのだ。

This year, then, I would like to continue probing and agonizing together with all of you with respect to the following questions: What does it mean to be human? And just what is the human spirit?
「人って何だろう」「心って何だろう」。今年も迷い悩みながら、みなさんといっしょに考えていきたい。

(By Rika Kayama, psychiatrist)
（精神科医）

中東と日本 傍観者でいられない

--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 10
EDITORIAL: Japan should not be passive bystander as tensions rise in Middle East
（社説）中東と日本　傍観者でいられない

Tensions are rising in the Middle East as Saudi Arabia and Iran are at loggerheads with each other.
　サウジアラビアとイランの対立で、中東情勢が緊迫の度を深めている。

By no means should Japan just be looking on at a time when the Middle East is standing at a doorway to further turbulence.
　中東がさらなる混迷の入り口に立っている時に、日本が傍観者でいていいはずがない。

During his New Year news conference, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe evoked the fact that Japan will assume the presidency at the Group of Seven summit this year and that Japan has become a nonpermanent member of the U.N. Security Council.
　安倍首相は年頭の会見で、日本がことし主要国首脳会議の議長国であることや、国連安全保障理事会の非常任理事国であることにふれ、こう強調した。

“(The year 2016) will be a year in which Japan’s diplomacy will lead the world,” Abe emphasized in that context. “I intend for Japan to lead the world by looking squarely at the future with a global perspective and laying out the most appropriate road map in order to foster peace and prosperity in the region and around the world.”
　「日本外交が世界を引っ張っていく１年となる」「地域や世界の平和と繁栄のために、グローバルな視点に立って将来を見据え、最も適切な道筋を示すことにより、世界をリードしていきたい」

We sincerely hope that those words will be fulfilled. And there is one thing we want Abe to do exactly for that reason.
　言葉通りであって欲しい、と切に願う。だからこそ、ここで首相に求めたいことがある。

We want him to make sure that Japan will exercise its diplomatic potential in averting a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, just as it will respond to the recent nuclear test by North Korea.
　北朝鮮の核実験への対応と同様に、サウジとイランの紛争回避に向けても、日本外交の力を発揮してもらいたいのだ。

During last year’s Diet deliberations on the security legislation, Abe cited potential deployment of the Self-Defense Forces to minesweeping operations in the Strait of Hormuz as a concrete example of the ways Japan will be exercising its right to collective self-defense.
　昨年の安保法制をめぐる国会審議で首相は、ホルムズ海峡での機雷掃海への自衛隊派遣を集団的自衛権行使の具体例として挙げた。

But minesweeping operations will only become necessary after a conflict has erupted.
　だが機雷除去の必要が出てくるのは、あくまで紛争が起きてしまった後の話である。

Diplomatic efforts to prevent the breakout of a conflict are the most needed at present to face the crisis that is unfolding before our eyes.
　目の前の危機に立ち向かうため、いま何よりも求められるのは、紛争が起きる前に止める外交努力にほかならない。

Along with supporting the arbitration efforts by the United States, European nations and other parties, Japan should also work with the global community in trying to find out what could be done at this moment.
　日本も、米欧を中心とした仲介努力を支えるとともに、いま何ができるのか。知恵を絞って国際社会と協調したい。

Japan possesses a diplomatic asset, which allows it to hold a dialogue, under a certain level of mutual trust, with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states, Israel and Iran, despite the historically entangled relations between the three parties.
　歴史的に複雑な関係にある、サウジなどアラブ諸国やイスラエル、イランのいずれとも一定の信頼関係の下で対話ができることは、日本外交の資産だ。

Unlike the United States and European nations, Japan has so far applied the brakes on using force overseas. We could now make the most of the confidence in Japan, which has played an original role in nonmilitary, humanitarian aid that is intended to stabilize the livelihood of Middle Eastern people.
　米欧と異なるのは、日本がこれまで海外での武力行使に歯止めをかけてきたことだ。中東の人々の暮らしの安定をはかる非軍事の人道支援で独自の役割を果たしてきた日本への信頼を、ここで生かせないか。

We should not forget that participation of the SDF in logistical support operations for foreign troops, which will become feasible under the new security legislation, could rather undermine Japan’s moral high ground.
　留意すべきは、安保法制で可能になる他国軍の後方支援活動に自衛隊が加わることは、日本の強みをかえって失わせかねないことである。

Military strength and geographical distance matter in military action. But nonmilitary diplomacy of arbitration is feasible even without strong military power or in far-flung areas.
　軍事的な行動は、軍事力の大小や地理的な遠近が影響する。だが非軍事の仲介外交なら、強大な軍事力がなくても、距離が遠い地域でも力は発揮できる。

Seeking a way to avert a conflict in a peaceful manner on the basis of the diplomatic asset that Japan has accumulated over the postwar years would be the best way for Abe to live up to the promises of “diplomacy that takes a panoramic perspective of the globe” and “proactive pacifism”--both being the prime minister’s pet slogans--in the real sense of those terms.
　戦後日本が積み重ねてきた外交的資産のうえに、平和的な紛争回避の可能性を探る。
　それこそが真の意味での「地球儀を俯瞰（ふかん）する外交」「積極的平和主義」の名にふさわしい。

Seldom do we believe there is any easy approach to doing so. But that is the sort of diplomacy that Japan should be seeking as a pacifist nation.
　容易な道だとは思わない。ただ、平和国家日本のあるべき外交の姿はそこにある。

北朝鮮核問題 問われる中国の行動

--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 9
EDITORIAL: China crucial to moves to rein in North Korea
（社説）北朝鮮核問題　問われる中国の行動

In response to Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test, the U.N. Security Council will soon start discussions on a new resolution to impose additional sanctions on North Korea.
　北朝鮮による４度目の核実験を受け、国連安保理は新たな制裁決議に向けた論議を始める。

After North Korea’s third nuclear test three years ago, the Security Council issued a resolution warning that “further significant measures” will be taken if the country conducts another nuclear test.
　前回３年前の実験後の決議では、再び強行すれば、「さらなる重大な措置をとる」と警告していた。

There is a compelling case for stronger international actions to punish North Korea.
制裁強化は当然だ。

Members of the Security Council should unite and adopt a new resolution swiftly to make North Korea realize the serious consequences of its outrageous act.
　安保理が結束して早期に新決議を採択し、北朝鮮に暴挙の重大さを明示せねばならない。

However, it should be noted that the Security Council’s warnings and sanctions included in its past resolutions concerning North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have been ineffective.
　ただ、これまで北朝鮮の核・ミサイル問題では安保理決議を重ねてきたが、警告や制裁が効果的だったとはいえない。

The primary reason for this failure is a large hole in the international coalition to put pressure on North Korea. That hole is China, on which the secluded and isolated country has been heavily dependent both politically and economically.
　最大の要因は、包囲網に大きな「穴」があるからだ。北朝鮮が政治・経済の両面で最も頼りとする中国である。

Traditionally, the relationship between China and North Korea has been described as ties bound by a blood pledge because China fought for the North during the Korean War (1950-1953).
　中朝の間柄は、朝鮮戦争をともに戦った血盟関係とうたわれた。

During the Cold War era, China and North Korea confronted the United States together as members of the communist bloc.
同じ共産圏陣営として米国と対峙（たいじ）した時代もあった。

But China’s position in the world has changed since those days. It is now a leading power that has as much responsibility for international affairs as the United States and major European countries.
　だが、いまや中国の立ち位置は違う。米欧と並ぶ国際責任を担うべき大国である。

Beijing should now act in a way that does not allow North Korea to commit any more reckless acts that threaten global security.
世界の安全を脅かす北朝鮮の暴走をこれ以上、許してはなるまい。

In order to stop Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs from repeating and accelerating, China needs to take an action against its neighbor that represents a clear departure from its past pattern.
　核・ミサイル問題の連鎖を断つためには、中国が北朝鮮に対し、はっきりと過去にない行動を起こす必要がある。

For years, China has continued providing support to North Korea, even though it has often been annoyed by Pyongyang’s behavior.
　中国はこれまで、北朝鮮のふるまいを不快に思いつつも支援は続けてきた。

That is mainly because China is intent on preventing any situation that could lead to the collapse of North Korea, which could pose a serious threat to its own security.
自国の安全保障上、北朝鮮の崩壊につながりかねない事態を警戒するからだ。

Moreover, China’s three northeastern provinces near the border with North Korea have strong interdependent economic ties with the country. This makes it even more difficult for Beijing to impose effective sanctions against the North.
　加えて中朝国境近くの東北３省では北朝鮮との経済的な相互依存が深いため、中国も実効的な制裁が容易にできない。

A disorderly collapse of North Korea would also have dire consequences for other neighboring countries, including Japan and South Korea. One big worry is a possible large-scale refugee crisis.
　日本や韓国など周辺地域にとっても北朝鮮が無秩序に崩壊すれば、難民問題など重大な脅威にさらされる危うさがある。

Even so, if China continues to support North Korea, the regime of Kim Jong Un will keep making the same mistakes. China should take the initiative in ratcheting up pressure on the regime.
　だとしても結局、中国が北朝鮮の後ろ盾を演じているだけでは、金正恩（キムジョンウン）政権は過ちを繰り返すのみだろう。まず中国が圧力の水位を高めるべきだ。

At the same time, a fundamental solution to the North Korea problem requires active involvement by Washington.
　一方で北朝鮮問題の根本的な打開には、やはり米国の積極関与が欠かせない。

What North Korean leaders want the most is a fresh round of talks with the United States for a peace treaty.
北朝鮮指導部が最も望むのは、米国との平和協定をめざす協議だからだ。

U.S. President Barack Obama has been sticking to a policy of refusing to start serious talks with North Korea unless the country takes concrete and convincing actions toward abandoning its nuclear arms program.
　オバマ政権は、北朝鮮が核放棄へ具体的な行動をとらない限り、本格的な対話には臨まない方針を続けてきた。

But this policy has failed to work.
だが、その政策も功を奏さなかった。

The Obama administration may be responsible for the fact that it has allowed North Korea to conduct three nuclear tests during its tenure.
　オバマ政権のうち、北朝鮮に３度も核実験を許したという結果責任は、米国にもあろう。

The United States needs to work with Japan, South Korea, China and Russia to figure out a new strategy for dealing with North Korea under the leadership of Kim Jong Un.
　米国は、日韓中・ロシアと連携して、金正恩政権下の北朝鮮との新たな向き合い方を探る必要がある。

Starting dialogue with Pyongyang under the framework of the six-nation talks on its nuclear ambitions, for instance, would not necessarily mean making a concession to the country.
６者協議などの枠組みで対話をしても、それは必ずしも譲歩を意味しない。

All the countries concerned are facing tough challenges in dealing with North Korea, but have no choice but to start making serious efforts to work out ways of playing more active roles through a combination of a hard and a soft approach toward Pyongyang.
　北朝鮮をめぐり、関係国すべてが難しいかじとりを迫られるが、硬軟とりまぜた積極関与に向け知恵を絞るしかあるまい。

中国ロケット軍 米への挑戦示した核部隊強化

The Yomiuri Shimbun
China’s conspicuous nuclear unit build-up poses challenge to U.S.
中国ロケット軍　米への挑戦示した核部隊強化

The hard-line stance of China, which is trying to drive the United States out of the Asian order and establish its own hegemony, is becoming increasingly conspicuous.
　アジア秩序から米国を排除し、自らの覇権を確立しようとする中国の強硬姿勢が、一段と鮮明になってきた。

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government announced that an airfield has been completed on one of its artificial islands in the South China Sea and that a “civilian plane” test-landed there.
　習近平政権は、南シナ海の人工島の一つに飛行場が完成し、「民間機」による試験飛行を実施したと発表した。

China is apparently trying to make its effective control of the South China Sea a fait accompli while covering up its true intention of turning the artificial islands into military strongholds.
　軍事拠点化の意図を糊塗ことしながら、南シナ海の実効支配を既成事実化する目論見があるのだろう。

After the first test, Beijing ignored criticism from the international community and repeated test operations of the airstrip. This defiant attitude could increase tensions in the region and cannot be tolerated.
その後も、国際社会の批判を顧みず、滑走路の運用テストを重ねている。地域の緊張を高める挑戦であり、容認できない。

It is essential to restrict China’s actions constantly through continued navigation by U.S. naval vessels around the artificial islands in the South China Sea and other means. Japan and the United States must enhance their partnerships with relevant countries, including India, Australia and Southeast Asian nations, to deal with the situation.
　米国が南シナ海の人工島周辺で艦艇航行を続けるなど、中国の行動への牽制けんせいを欠かさないことが肝要である。日米は、インドや豪州、東南アジアなどの関係国と連携を深め、対処せねばならない。

Efforts by Xi’s government to make China a “maritime power” and acceleration of its “strong army policy” are sources of concern.
　深刻なのは、「海洋強国」の実現を目指す習政権が「強軍路線」を加速させていることだ。

China recently disclosed that it is building its second aircraft carrier — the first to be built entirely with domestic technology. Beijing already possesses one aircraft carrier but its hull was built in Ukraine and the ship was refitted in China.
　最近は２隻目の空母を建造していると明らかにした。現在、ウクライナで建造中だった船体を購入し、改修した空母を保有しているが、国産空母は初めてだ。

China’s alleged aim of forming three carrier fighting groups by 2020 is becoming more and more likely.
　２０２０年までの３個空母戦闘群の編成が目標だとされる。それが現実味を帯びてきた。

Military modernization

The organizational reform of Chinese forces, to develop the capability to react quickly for modern warfare, is also becoming concrete.
　現代戦への即応態勢を整える軍の機構改革も具体化し始めた。

China upgraded its Second Artillery Corps to a “Rocket Force,” apparently aiming to enhance the nation’s nuclear capability and its joint operations with ground, sea and air forces.
　第２砲兵（戦略ミサイル部隊）の「ロケット軍」への格上げは、核戦力を増強し、陸海空軍との統合運用を強化する目的だろう。

Moreover, a “strategic support force” believed to be in charge of cyber-attacks and military use of space has also been created. This makes clear Beijing’s intention to vie with the United States.
　サイバー攻撃や宇宙空間の軍事利用を担うとみられる「戦略支援部隊」も新設した。米国に対抗する思惑を明確に示したものだ。

Xi’s administration is proceeding in a full-fledged manner with the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which aims to build a huge economic bloc. It reportedly plans to connect Asia and Europe with land-based and oceanic “Silk Roads” and develop infrastructure such as roads and ports in countries located along them.
　習政権は巨大経済圏構想「一帯一路」を本格的に推進する。アジアと欧州を陸と海のシルクロードで結び、沿線国の道路や港湾などのインフラを整備するという。

The initiative apparently not only aims to expand Beijing’s economic influence in connection with the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. It also must be noted that the initiative is the other side of a military strategy akin to a “string of pearls” that aims to build a network of strongholds for the Chinese Navy when it operates across open oceans.
　その狙いは、中国主導のアジアインフラ投資銀行（ＡＩＩＢ）と連動した経済的影響力の拡大だけではあるまい。中国海軍の外洋展開の拠点網「真珠の首飾り」の構築など、軍事面と表裏一体の関係にあることに警戒が必要だ。

It is also increasingly of concern that the dogmatic stance of Xi’s government might cause tense relations with Taiwan.
　習政権の独善的な姿勢が台湾との関係でも緊張を招かないか、との懸念も強まっている。

In Taiwan, a survey regarding its presidential election scheduled for Jan. 16 shows that a candidate from the Democratic Progressive Party, the independence-oriented largest opposition party, has a wide lead over her rival of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), which has been taking a conciliatory approach toward Beijing. A change of government is likely to happen there for the first time in eight years.
　今月１６日の台湾総統選では、「独立」志向の最大野党・民進党の候補が、対中融和を進めてきた与党・国民党の候補に、世論調査で大差をつけている。８年ぶりの政権交代の可能性が大きい。

If the DPP takes office, China should seek dialogue with the new government instead of heading for a collision. This is the responsibility of a major power that has a strong influence on the stability of the Taiwan Strait.
　民進党政権が誕生しても、対立に舵かじを切るのではなく、対話を模索することが、台湾海峡の安定に関わる大国の責任ではないか。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 9, 2016)

サウジＶＳイラン 断交は中東の混迷深めないか

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Middle East troubles deepen as rift between Saudi Arabia, Iran grows
サウジＶＳイラン　断交は中東の混迷深めないか

The action poured cold water on the efforts of the international community to end the Syrian civil war.
　シリア内戦終結を目指す国際社会の努力に水を差す行為と言えよう。

Saudi Arabia, leader of the Sunni Muslim world, broke off diplomatic relations with Iran, a major Shiite power. Bahrain and Sudan followed Saudi Arabia in severing diplomatic ties with Iran, and Kuwait and other countries recalled their ambassadors from Tehran.
　イスラム教スンニ派の盟主サウジアラビアが、シーア派大国イランとの国交を断絶した。バーレーンやスーダンはサウジに追随してイランと断交し、クウェートなども駐イラン大使を召還した。

The Yemeni civil war also has been turned into a proxy war between the administration of Sunni President Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi, which is backed by Saudi Arabia, and pro-Iranian Shiite armed forces. Iran lambasted Saudi Arabia, saying its embassy in Yemen had suffered damage in Saudi airstrikes.
　イエメン内戦も、サウジが支援するスンニ派のハディ政権と、親イランのシーア派武装勢力の代理戦争と化している。イランは、在イエメン大使館がサウジ軍の空爆で被害を受けた、と非難した。

If hostility deepens between Saudi Arabia and Iran, both of which are major oil-producing countries in the world, it is feared that their deteriorating relationship could influence the crude oil market and global economy. Both countries must restrain themselves and swiftly attempt to calm the situation.
　世界有数の産油国であるサウジとイランの確執が深まれば、原油市場や世界経済への影響も懸念される。両国は自制し、沈静化を急がねばならない。

Peace negotiations aimed at bringing about a ceasefire and transfer of power in Syria are expected to be held in late January. A situation should be avoided in which Iran, which supports the administration of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and Saudi Arabia, which demands Assad’s resignation, intensify their invective, with the result that the negotiations merely spin around in circles.
　今月下旬には、シリアの停戦と政権移行に向けた和平協議が予定される。アサド政権を支援するイランと、「アサド退陣」を求めるサウジが反目を強め、協議を空転させてはならない。

The deepening of the Sunni-Shiite sectarian conflict is causing further disarray in the Middle East. This is a serious situation.
　スンニ派とシーア派の宗派対立の拡大は、中東の一層の混迷につながる。憂慮すべき事態だ。

If the Syrian civil war is prolonged, the sweeping operation to eliminate the Sunni extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) will be delayed and the outflow of refugees to Europe will continue.
　シリア内戦が長引けば、スンニ派の過激派組織「イスラム国」の掃討が滞り、欧州への難民流出にも歯止めがかからなくなる。

Execution of cleric

Saudi Arabia cut its diplomatic relations with Iran because the Saudi Embassy in Tehran was attacked by rioting Iranians.
　サウジが断交した理由は、テヘランのサウジ大使館がイラン人暴徒に襲撃されたことである。

Ensuring the safety of foreign diplomatic missions is an obligation under international law. Iran’s security system, which could be regarded as conniving at the rioters’ intrusion into the embassy’s premises, is problematic.
　外国公館の安全確保は国際条約で義務付けられている。侵入を黙認したとも見なされるイランの警備体制には問題があろう。

However, the conflict was triggered by Saudi Arabia’s execution of a noted Shiite cleric for leading demonstrations criticizing the Saudi royal family.
　だが、対立の発端は、王家を批判するデモを主導したとして、著名なシーア派指導者をサウジが処刑したことにある。

Iran called for the cleric to be pardoned by Saudi Arabia and the United States also opposed the execution on humanitarian grounds, as it feared the situation would be aggravated. Saudi Arabia bears very heavy responsibility for executing the cleric in spite of these moves.
　イランは指導者の赦免を要求し、米国も人権問題や事態悪化の懸念から処刑に反対していた。それにもかかわらず、死刑を執行したサウジの責任も重い。

Saudi King Salman does not follow the traditional moderate line of the royal family but instead aggressively intervenes in conflicts. Behind this may be distrust toward the United States’ Middle East strategy, as the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama shifts its focus toward improving relations with Iran and downgrading the U.S.-Saudi relationship.
　サウジのサルマン国王は、王家の伝統的な穏健路線を踏襲せず、紛争への積極的な介入が目立つ。オバマ米大統領が中東戦略の軸足をイランとの関係改善に移し、米・サウジ同盟を軽視しているとの不信感が背景にあるのだろう。

Lifting of sanctions against Iran by the United States and European countries, based on the nuclear agreement, is expected to start as early as this month. Saudi Arabia’s hard-line policy is the result of urgent concern that if Iran resumes exporting crude oil, the current low oil prices could sink further and the deterioration of Saudi Arabia’s fiscal condition would accelerate.
　核合意に基づく米欧のイラン制裁解除は、今月にも始まる見込みだ。イランが原油輸出を再開すれば、原油安が一段と進み、サウジの財政悪化が加速するとの危機感も強硬策を後押ししている。

The United States, which plays a role in maintaining stability in the Middle East, can only exert a limited influence on Saudi Arabia and Iran. Under the circumstances, will Russia, which is prepared to act as an intermediary in the Saudi-Iran conflict, be the only player to boost its presence in the region?
　中東の安定維持を担う米国がサウジとイランに限定的な影響力しか持てなくなっている。このまま、仲介の意向を示したロシアの存在感が高まるだけなのか。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 8, 2016)

北朝鮮核実験 脅威の深刻化に迅速対応せよ

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Intl community must address N. Korea nuclear threat swiftly / Regime’s unpredictable moves fuel instability
北朝鮮核実験　脅威の深刻化に迅速対応せよ

◆包囲網強化へ国際社会は結束を◆

The nuclear threat posed by North Korea has entered a new stage. The international community must unite and take all possible steps to maintain the peace and stability in Asia.
　北朝鮮の核の脅威が新たな段階に入った。アジアの平和と安定の維持へ国際社会は結束し、手段を尽くすべきだ。

North Korea has conducted its fourth nuclear test. Via a news broadcast on Korean Central Television, Pyongyang announced that it had successfully tested “its first hydrogen bomb.” It also said that with the success, the country had “joined the advanced ranks of nuclear weapons states that possess even hydrogen bombs.”
　北朝鮮が４回目の核実験を強行した。朝鮮中央テレビを通じて、「最初の水爆実験」に成功し、「水爆まで持つ核保有国の前列に立った」と発表した。

It was the second nuclear test conducted by the regime under its current leader, Kim Jong Un, following the one carried out in 2013.
　金正恩政権では、２０１３年に続く２回目の核実験だ。

In May, the country is scheduled to hold a Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea for the first time in 36 years. Kim, the first secretary of the party, may have intended to demonstrate his clout both at home and abroad by achieving the possession of a “hydrogen bomb.”
　今年５月には３６年ぶりの朝鮮労働党大会の開催を予定している。金第１書記は、「水爆」保有という実績を作り、国内外に威信を誇示したつもりなのか。

Outrageous act
　◆アジア安定損なう暴挙

We can never tolerate such an outrageous act by North Korea, which violates a number of resolutions by the U.N. Security Council that impose sanctions and call for the country to refrain from conducting nuclear tests and to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
　核実験の自制や核放棄を求める国連安全保障理事会の数々の制裁決議に違反する暴挙は、断じて容認することができない。

As the seismic energy observed following the test was smaller than that observed in the previous test, most experts are skeptical that the latest test was of a hydrogen bomb. Some experts have said that it may have been a test of a “boosted fission bomb.” To begin with, it is uncertain whether the test was successful or not.
　観測された地震のエネルギーが前回より小さいことなどから、専門家の間では、水爆実験に否定的な見方が強い。「ブースト型（強化型）原爆」ではないか、との指摘も出ている。そもそも実験が成功したかどうかも不明だ。

Even so, it is worrisome that a series of nuclear tests makes it more likely that the country will be able to develop smaller and more powerful nuclear weapons.
　懸念されるのは、核実験を重ねることで、核兵器の小型化や高性能化が進むことだ。

North Korea is said to have deployed a large number of Rodong ballistic missiles that can reach Japan. Should North Korea become able to mount nuclear warheads on such missiles, Japan’s security environment will dramatically deteriorate.
　北朝鮮は、日本を射程に収める弾道ミサイル・ノドンを大量に実戦配備しているとされる。核弾頭の搭載が可能になれば、日本の安全保障環境は劇的に悪化する。

It is only reasonable for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to have said that the latest nuclear test is a “serious threat to the security of our nation,” adding, “I strongly condemn this.”
　安倍首相が「わが国の安全に対する重大な脅威で、強く非難する」と表明したのは当然である。

The Kim regime has been trying to improve the country’s relations with China recently.
　金政権は最近、中国との関係改善を図っていた。

Liu Yunshan, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, who ranks fifth in the party hierarchy, took part in a commemorative event held in October to mark the 70th anniversary of North Korea’s Workers’ Party. Liu urged North Korea to refrain from conducting such acts as a nuclear test.
昨年１０月の朝鮮労働党創建７０年記念行事には、中国共産党序列５位の劉雲山政治局常務委員が参列し、核実験などの自制を働きかけた。

Kim hinted in December that his country “possesses a hydrogen bomb.” But he made no reference to “nuclear” in his New Year’s address.
　金第１書記は昨年１２月に「水爆保有」を示唆したが、年頭演説では「核」に言及しなかった。

As North Korea did not give advance notice either to China or to the United States this time and there were hardly any indications that such a test was imminent, the latest test was a complete surprise. Making any rational predictions regarding the Kim regime has become ever more difficult.
　今回の核実験は、米中への事前の通告がなかったうえ、兆候もほとんど確認できず、寝耳に水だった。金政権に関する合理的予測が一層難しくなったと言えよう。

Pass resolution
　◆日米は制裁決議に動け

North Korea’s latest move may be an indication that Kim, who is trying to maintain his clout with a “reign of terror” by purging senior members of the ruling party one after another, is increasingly acting arbitrarily on his own authority.
　幹部を相次いで粛清する「恐怖政治」で権力維持を図る金第１書記が、独断専行に拍車をかけていることが一因ではないか。

The latest statement asserted that North Korea would not suspend or abandon its development of nuclear weapons “unless the United States has rolled back its hostile policy toward [North Korea].” Some perceive the latest nuclear test as having been aimed at resuming dialogue with the United States.
　北朝鮮は声明で「米国の敵視政策が根絶されない限り、核開発の中断や放棄はない」と主張した。核実験は、米国との対話の再開を目指したものとの観測もある。

In October, however, U.S. President Barack Obama clearly stated that his administration would respond to North Korean nuclear testing with reinforced sanctions. North Korea’s latest move will only serve to internationally isolate the country even further.
　だが、オバマ米大統領は昨年１０月、核実験には制裁強化で応える方針を明確にしている。北朝鮮は国際的孤立を深めるだけだ。

The U.N. Security Council is set to convene an emergency session and discuss how to deal with the latest nuclear test. It is important to adopt a resolution to effectively strengthen sanctions on North Korea as soon as possible, thereby clarifying the council’s resolve to press the country to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
　国連安保理は緊急会合で、核実験への対応を協議する。実効性ある制裁強化の決議を早期に採択し、北朝鮮に核放棄を迫る意思を明確に打ち出すことが重要だ。

The latest provocation comes as Japan regained a nonpermanent seat on the security council this month. Japan should join hands with the United States and other pertinent countries to become proactively involved in adopting a sanctions resolution against North Korea.
　日本は今月、安保理の非常任理事国に復帰したばかりだ。米国などと連携し、制裁決議の採択に積極的に関与するべきだ。

The government has convened a meeting of four relevant Cabinet members of the National Security Council. They have analyzed information about North Korea’s action and discussed ways to deal with the situation. The government is considering the idea of reinstating some of the sanctions it lifted in July 2014, including one aimed at basically banning North Koreans from entering Japan.
　政府は国家安全保障会議（ＮＳＣ）の４大臣会合を開いて、情報を分析し、今後の対応を協議した。１４年７月に解除した北朝鮮籍者の入国の原則禁止など、一部の制裁の復活を検討している。

North Korea has also continued to put off reporting to Japan the results of its renewed investigation into the fate of Japanese nationals abducted by that country. We believe the government must take stern action against North Korea.
　北朝鮮は、日本人拉致被害者の再調査の報告についても先送りし続けている。政府は、厳しい措置を取らねばなるまい。

It is important for the government to persistently seek action from North Korea while adhering to the fundamental principle regarding efforts to comprehensively resolve issues related to that nation, including the abduction problem and its nuclear weapons and missiles programs.
　拉致と核・ミサイル問題を包括的に解決する基本方針を堅持しながら、粘り強く働きかけを続ける必要がある。

It is also important to increase cooperative ties between the Self-Defense Forces and U.S. forces, based on the Japan-U.S. alliance. The security-related laws established in autumn last year have made it possible for our nation to take such measures as defending U.S. vessels engaged in keeping guard against any attempt to launch a ballistic missile. Efforts should be made to expand joint Japan-U.S. vigilance and surveillance activities in areas surrounding Japan, thereby increasing deterrence.
　日米同盟に基づく自衛隊と米軍の連携を強化することも大切だ。昨秋成立した安全保障関連法で、弾道ミサイル発射を警戒中の米艦の防護などが可能になった。日本周辺での日米共同の警戒監視活動を拡充し、抑止力を高めたい。

It is also indispensable to facilitate close cooperation with South Korea. South Korean President Park Geun-hye has emphasized the importance of forcing North Korea to “pay the right price” for its latest provocation.
　韓国との緊密な協調も欠かせない。朴槿恵大統領は、北朝鮮に「相当する対価を払わせなければならない」と力説した。

China pressure vital
　◆中国の「圧力」がカギだ

Late last year, the Japanese and South Korean governments reached a deal on the issue of so-called comfort women. The momentum generated for improving Japan-South Korea relations should be efficiently used to deepen bilateral cooperation.
　日韓両政府は昨年末、慰安婦問題で合意した。関係改善の機運を生かし、協力を深めるべきだ。

The key to dealing with North Korea from the standpoint of increased pressure on that country is China.
　北朝鮮への圧力を強める観点でカギとなるのは、中国である。

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has expressed “resolute opposition” to North Korea’s nuclear test, urging Pyongyang to honor its pledge of denuclearization.
　中国外務省は核実験に「断固とした反対」を表明し、北朝鮮に非核化の約束を守るよう促した。

China was previously hesitant to impose tough sanctions that could destabilize the North Korean regime, despite championing efforts to make the Korean Peninsula nuclear-free. There is no doubt that China’s lenient stance has allowed North Korea to develop nuclear weapons.
　中国は従来、「朝鮮半島の非核化」を掲げながらも、北朝鮮の体制の不安定化につながるような厳しい制裁には及び腰だった。その甘い姿勢が北朝鮮の核開発を許してきたのは間違いない。

North Korea relies on China for most of its petroleum. North Koreans cannot live without commodities from China.
　北朝鮮は、石油の大半を中国に依存する。国民生活も中国からの物資なしには成り立たない。

This is at last the time when the administration of Chinese President Xi Jinping, which can make or break North Korea, must go all out to exert pressure on Pyongyang, thereby forcing North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons.
　北朝鮮の命脈を握る習近平政権は、今度こそ、核放棄への圧力に本腰を入れなければならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 7, 2016)

サウジとイラン 中東安定に向け和解を

--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 6
EDITORIAL: Saudi Arabia-Iran reconciliation needed to prevent further Mideast turmoil
（社説）サウジとイラン　中東安定に向け和解を

This year also began with chaos in the Middle East dominating international news. Conflict is deepening between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two major players in the region.
　ことしも国際ニュースの幕開けは中東の混迷だった。地域大国のサウジアラビアとイランが対立を深めている。

With war and unrest continuing in various parts of the Middle East, these nations ought to be living up to their heavy responsibilities. Their commitment and collaboration are especially indispensable to breaking the deadlock in the situations in Syria and Iraq.
　中東各地で紛争や混乱が続くなか、両国が本来果たすべき責任は重い。とりわけシリアとイラクの情勢打開には、両国の関与と協調が不可欠である。

Saudi Arabia and Iran should be exploring means of compromise now. Further escalation of conflict will seriously affect Mideast peace, refugee and anti-terrorism policies, the crude oil market and all other issues of global concern. The international community must hasten to mediate and urge the two countries to meet halfway, with the United States in the lead.
　ここは歩み寄りの道を探るときである。争いが激化すれば、中東和平、テロや難民対策、原油市場など、あらゆる国際問題に深刻な打撃を与える。国際社会は、米国を筆頭に積極的な仲介と調整を急ぐべきだ。

Saudi Arabia and Iran have a long history of enmity. The former considers itself the leader of the Islamic majority Sunnis, while the latter is the leading nation representing the minority Shias.
　サウジとイランの反目の歴史は長い。サウジはイスラム教の多数派スンニ派の盟主を自認する一方、イランは少数派シーア派を代表する大国である。

The current feud was triggered by Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite cleric for staging a street demonstration. In Tehran, a mob attacked the Saudi Embassy and set it on fire. Riyadh cut diplomatic relations with Tehran, and Bahrain and Sudan followed suit.
　今回の発端は、街頭デモを主導した罪でサウジがシーア派指導者を死刑にしたことだ。イラン国内で怒った群衆が、サウジ公館を壊し、放火などをした。サウジは断交を宣言し、バーレーンやスーダンも同調した。

Even before this latest falling-out, Saudi Arabia and Iran were sworn rivals vying for regional supremacy. And the Iraq War became a turning point. After the war, the Iraqi regime switched from Sunni to Shiite and Iran’s influence in the region grew dramatically, much to Saudi Arabia’s alarm.
　もともとサウジとイランは、地域の覇権をめぐってあつれきを強めてきた。その節目はやはりイラク戦争だった。イラクの政権がスンニ派からシーア派に移って以降、イランの影響力が大きく伸び、サウジの警戒心は増大した。

The civil wars in Syria and Yemen have an element of surrogate wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran, both of whom are continuing to back their respective “friends” in various parts of the Middle East. The Sunni-Shia religious feud has now become one of the biggest risks for the region.
　シリアとイエメンの内戦は、両国の代理戦争の側面があるほか、中東各地でそれぞれが自国に近い勢力に肩入れを続けている。スンニ派とシーア派の宗派対立はいまや、中東を覆う最大リスクの一つとなっている。

Should the current conflict spill into Iraq and Bahrain where tensions already run high between the feuding sects, the entire Middle East will become destabilized. And Saudi Arabia itself would have to worry about its internal stability, since 15 percent of its population are Shias.
　今回の対立が、国内で両派が緊張関係にあるイラクやバーレーンなどに波及すれば、中東全体が動揺する。約１５％のシーア派人口を抱えるサウジ自身の国内の安定への懸念も拭えない。

These problems began to emerge with the waning of America’s influence in the region. Saudi Arabia used to boast close relations with the United States, but the latter’s increased dialogue with Iran in recent years and the conclusion of a nuclear deal have added to Riyadh’s growing dissatisfaction and frustration with Washington.
　そもそも、こうした問題があらわになった背景には、中東での米国の影響力の衰えがある。かねて米国との緊密な関係を誇っていたサウジは、米国が近年イランと対話を進め、核開発をめぐる合意を結んだことで、いっそうの焦りと不満を募らせていた。

Given this background, the United States bears no small responsibility. The same could be said of the Jewish state of Israel, which is increasingly mistrustful of Iran. It is definitely the job of the United States to take the lead in urging Saudi Arabia and Israel to practice restraint.
　そうした経緯からも、米国の責任は重いというべきだ。イランへの警戒心を強めているのはユダヤ国家のイスラエルも同じである。サウジやイスラエルに自制を求め説得するのは、依然米国が率先すべき仕事だ。

Russia has offered to mediate. But right now, the entire international community should stand together and deal with the situation as one. The United States, Russia and European nations need to discuss concerted action at the United Nations Security Council. And the rest of the international community, including Japan, should support such efforts.
　ロシアが仲介の意向を示してはいるが、ここは国際社会が一致して対処する態勢を固めるべきだ。米欧とロシアは国連安保理などで協調行動を論議すべきだろう。そうした作業を、日本を含む国際社会も支えたい。

通常国会開幕 「戦後の岐路」問う論戦を

--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 5
EDITORIAL: Lawmakers can't be allowed to obscure issues on Japan’s future course
（社説）通常国会開幕　「戦後の岐路」問う論戦を

This year’s ordinary Diet session convened on Jan. 4, immediately after the traditional three New Year holidays, an unusually early start of the national legislature’s work.
　通常国会がきのう開幕した。三が日が明けて早々、異例に早い召集となった。

This is an extremely important Diet session.
　極めて重要な国会である。

The administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to initiate an amendment to the Constitution after the Upper House election slated for this summer.
　夏に参院選がある。安倍政権はその後、憲法改正の国会発議を視野に入れている。

The unusually early summoning of the Diet is a move to push ahead with a constitutional amendment.
　異例の早期召集は、そのための布石でもある。

The early beginning of the regular Diet session also makes it possible to hold simultaneous elections for both houses.
この時期の召集なら、衆参同日選も可能だ。

Although it is unclear if Abe will actually adopt this electoral tactic, simply having this option makes it easier for the ruling camp to create a division within the opposition bloc.
実際に踏み切るかはさておき、同日選の選択肢を手にするだけで野党を分断しやすくなる。

The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner, Komeito, already controls more than a two-thirds majority in the Lower House. The Abe administration is aiming to secure a two-thirds majority also in the Upper House to rewrite the Constitution. Such a presence in both chambers is needed to initiate any constitutional amendment process.
　衆院は自公両党で発議に必要な総議員の３分の２以上の勢力をもつが、参院でも３分の２の「改憲勢力」を確保したい。それが政権の狙いだ。

ABE CHANGES STANCE AFTER ELECTIONS
　■選挙前後の使い分け

At the Upper House election, Japanese voters will have to decide on whether to give Abe a clear and lopsided mandate to pursue his political agenda. The election could shape up as a major turning point for postwar Japan.
　「安倍１強政治」を加速させるか、転換させるか。夏の参院選は、戦後日本の大きな分岐点になる可能性がある。

This Diet session will offer an important opportunity for the public to think about the nation’s future course before the Upper House election. We urge both the ruling and opposition camps to hold in-depth debates on key policy issues to give the voting public a well-founded basis for their decisions at the polls.
　この国会は、国民にとって、参院選を前に日本の針路を考える重要な機会となる。判断材料となるような、深みのある論戦を与野党双方に求める。

In his New Year news conference on Jan. 4, Abe said he wants to start tackling “new challenges for building a new future for the nation” in 2016, stressing his policy efforts to create “a society where 100 million people will play active roles,” his vision for Japan’s future.
　「新しい国づくりへの新しい挑戦を始める年にしたい」
　安倍首相はきのうの年頭会見で抱負を語り、１億総活躍社会づくりなどを強調した。

But we cannot take these words at face value. The Abe administration has a history of emphasizing economic issues before elections and then forcing through its favorite policy initiatives by using the power of numbers after winning the polls. The administration has often used this political ploy on the strength won through an election.
　だが、額面通りには受け取れない。選挙前は経済最優先と言いながら、選挙に勝てば、自らこだわる政策を数の力で押し通す――。選挙至上主義とも言えるそうした政治手法が、安倍政権では際立つからだ。

This was the case after the 2013 Upper House election, when the administration successfully sought the enactment of the state secrets protection law, and also after the 2014 Lower House election, when it pursued, again successfully, the passage of new national security legislation.
　２０１３年の参院選後の特定秘密保護法のときも、１４年の総選挙後の安保法制のときも、そうだった。

Lawmakers of both the ruling and opposition camps now believe that Abe’s next political goal is a constitutional revision.
次は憲法改正を持ち出すだろう、というのが与野党一致した見方である。

In a late November meeting of a group of conservative politicians he himself leads, Abe made the following remark: “We need to recall the original political goal adopted (by the LDP) at its foundation, which was to change the various systems created during the period of occupation (of Japan by the Allied Powers), including amending the Constitution.”
　昨年１１月末、安倍首相は自ら率いる右派系議員の会合で、こう述べている。
　「憲法改正をはじめ、占領時代に作られた様々な仕組みを変えていこうという（自民党の）立党の原点を呼び起こさなければならない」

If the ruling coalition wins in simultaneous elections for both Diet houses, the administration will have three years to pursue its policy agenda without having to face any national poll. Even if Abe does not opt to dissolve the Lower House for simultaneous elections, a victory in the upper chamber will give the coalition more than two election-free years.
　仮に参院選で与党が勝てば、同日選なら３年間、参院選単独でも２年以上、大きな国政選挙に臨まなくても済む「時間」を手にすることになる。

That will create a political environment that allows the Abe administration to make even bolder political moves than those it has already taken, including initiating a constitutional amendment.
　改憲の発議を含め、これまで以上に思い切った手を打てる環境が整う。

BLOCK ATTEMPTS TO OBSCURE REAL ISSUES
　■争点隠しを許さない

The Abe administration has shown a clear tendency to change its policy narrative after elections in various areas, including the economy.
　「選挙前」と「選挙後」を使い分ける政権のやり方は、これにとどまらない。
　一つは、経済だ。

One typical approach used by the administration involves talking only about “benefits” for voters before elections, delaying any reference to a painful increase in the burden on taxpayers until after the polls.
　有権者受けする「給付」を先行させる一方、痛みを伴う「負担増」は選挙後に先送り。そんな手法が目立つ。

The draft supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, for instance, contains 330 billion yen ($2.77 billion) of spending to pay 30,000 yen each to old people with small pension pots.
　今年度補正予算案には、年金額が少ない高齢者に１人あたり３万円、総額３３００億円を配ることを盛り込んだ。

This spending will put a heavy financial burden on future generations while its beneficiaries include many people with ample assets.
低年金者には資産を多く持つ人もいるのに、巨額の給付のツケが将来世代に回される。

As for the proposed food exemptions from the scheduled consumption tax rate hike in April 2017, the administration has postponed its decision on how to finance the 1 trillion yen needed for the measure.
　１７年度から導入する消費税の軽減税率も、１兆円もの税収減の財源探しを先送りした。

The administration has also shown a habit of changing its political tune in the area of national security.
　もう一つは、安全保障だ。

Although the security legislation that passed the Diet last year is slated to come into force in March, the administration has decided to put off, until after the Upper House election, the addition of one important task to the list of new missions the Self-Defense Forces is expected to perform in United Nations peacekeeping operations under the laws.
The task is to rescue foreign forces or other organizations that have come under attack in areas away from the zone where the SDF is engaged in PKO activities.
　安保法制が３月に施行されるが、政権は国連平和維持活動（ＰＫＯ）に派遣する自衛隊への「駆けつけ警護」任務の追加を参院選後に先送りする。

The administration has also postponed submitting a bill to the Diet that would revise Japan’s Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) with the United States to expand the scope of the SDF’s logistic support for U.S. forces. The revision would allow the SDF to provide ammunition to U.S. forces, for example.
　米軍への弾薬提供など、後方支援を広げる日米物品役務相互提供協定（ＡＣＳＡ）改定案の国会提出も先送りだ。

Public opinion is sharply and equally divided over the security legislation. The administration apparently wants to avoid stirring up fresh public opposition to the legislation before the vital election.
　安保法制に対する世論は二分されている。重要な選挙を前にして、反発を再燃させたくないという判断だろう。

The opposition parties have the heavy responsibility to prevent the ruling camp from obscuring key policy issues during the last Diet session before the election and ensure in-depth discussions on these topics.
　選挙前の最後の論戦となる国会で、与党の「争点隠し」とも言える動きをどう覆し、議論を深めていくか。
　野党の責任は重い。

OPPOSITION PARTIES SHOULD SEEK BROAD COOPERATION
　■幅広い国民と連帯を

What kind of role should the opposition parties perform to counter the Abe administration’s dominant power?
　「安倍１強政治」に対抗するために、野党がいま、果たすべき役割は何か。

First and foremost, they should offer a realistic alternative to Abe’s government through effective maneuverings at the Diet, electoral cooperation and joint policymaking.
　まず国会対応や選挙協力、政策づくりを通じて、１強に代わりうる「もう一つの選択肢」を国民に示すことだ。

Calls for repealing the security legislation, which is strongly suspected to be unconstitutional, and protecting constitutionalism, which the Abe administration has failed to respect, can galvanize opposition parties into joining forces against the powerful ruling coalition.
　違憲の疑いが濃い安保法制を白紙に戻す。安倍政権が軽視する立憲主義を守る。それが結集軸になるはずだ。

As long as the opposition camp remains fragmented, there will be no political force that can effectively represent people concerned about the direction in which the government is trying to lead the nation.
　野党がバラバラなままでは、今の政治に危惧を抱く民意は行き場を見いだせない。

More than anything else, opposition parties need to seek cooperation with a broad spectrum of people by responding sympathetically to their wishes and concerns.
　そして何より、幅広い国民の思いや不安と共感しながら、連帯をはかることである。

Last year, the government’s initiative to enact the security legislation provoked various civil actions against the move, including demonstrations in front of the Diet building.
　昨年、安保法制をめぐって国会前の街頭活動など市民の動きが呼び起こされた。

What opposition parties should recall now is the fact that decisions on the future of the nation are, after all, up to the people with whom sovereign power resides.
　野党が改めて思い起こすべきは、国の針路を最終的に決めるのは、主権者たる国民だということだ。

The Diet can initiate constitutional amendments, but they must be approved by the people with a majority vote in a special referendum.
憲法改正も、国会議員による発議だけでは決まらない。国民投票による過半数の賛成が必要である。

The vital choice facing the nation is between politics simply driven by the power of a majority won through an election and politics more based on broad consensus built through sympathy and solidaity with the public.
　選挙での勝利や、議員の数の力で押し切る政治か。国民との共感と連帯に基づく、合意形成を重視するのか。

This choice offers hope for new politics.
　その問いに、新たな政治の可能性が見えてくる。

The voting age will be lowered to 18 from the current 20, starting with the Upper House election.
　今回の参院選から１８歳選挙権が認められる。

The Diet has a duty to debate key policy issues from a long-term perspective that encompasses not only the present but also the future when the new young voters will play leading roles in society.
　今だけでなく、彼らが生きて行く未来を見すえた論戦をしなければならない。