米ゼロ金利継続 景気低迷に警戒強めたＦＲＢ

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jan. 29, 2012)
Fed's super-low rate policy aimed at boosting economy
米ゼロ金利継続　景気低迷に警戒強めたＦＲＢ（1月28日付・読売社説）

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has decided to keep its de facto zero benchmark interest rate well into the future.
　米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が、事実上のゼロ金利政策を長期間続ける方針を打ち出した。　

The Fed's new timetable indicates it is increasingly concerned about the future of the U.S. economy.
　米国経済の先行きに警戒を強めたのだろう。

In deciding to maintain its close-to-zero interest rate policy, the Fed said in a statement released Wednesday that current U.S. economic conditions "are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014."
　ＦＲＢは声明で、ゼロ金利政策について、「少なくとも２０１４年終盤まで異例の低金利が正当化される可能性が高い」と指摘した。

This new policy is highly significant as the Fed is prolonging its super-low interest rate a year and a half beyond its earlier stance that an extremely low interest rate should be maintained until the end of the first half of 2013.
「１３年半ばまで」としてきた従来の方針と比べ、１年半程度も延ばす意味は大きい。

The unemployment rate in the United States has remained high at more than 8 percent, while its post-inflation economic growth this year is projected to be below 2 percent.
　米国の失業率は８％台に高止まりし、今年の実質成長率も２％弱に低迷する見込みだ。

U.S. business activities have yet to regain their strength.
景気の回復力はまだ緩慢である。

The European sovereign crisis, which was triggered by Greece and has not yet been resolved, threatens to destabilize the global economy.
　ギリシャに端を発した欧州危機は収束せず、世界経済を揺るがせている。

Should the European crisis deteriorate because of a delay in implementing countermeasures, the consequences could deal an even heavier blow to the U.S. economy.
対策の遅れで危機が深刻化すると、米国経済に一段と打撃を与えかねない。

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Fed action praiseworthy

The Fed boldly decided to prolong its super-low federal funds rate policy to encourage declines in interest rates on long-term loans in the hope of shoring up business activities and stimulating fixed investments and other business areas.
　ＦＲＢは、ゼロ金利政策を思い切って長期化させて、長期金利の低下を促し、設備投資などを刺激する景気下支え効果を狙った。

It seems that in its latest policy meeting, the Fed could not brush aside growing uncertainties shrouding the global economy as seen in the eurozone's rapidly deteriorating business conditions and the world's alarmingly unstable financial markets.
　ユーロ圏の急減速や不安定な市場など、世界を覆う不透明感を軽視できなかったと言えよう。

The United States has no room for a further reduction of the federal funds rate, and the scope of measures to handle financial policies is limited.
　金利引き下げの余地はなく、金融政策が打てる手は限られている。

The Fed's resolve to take all possible measures to bring about a strong economic recovery in spite of these circumstances is a welcome development.
それでも現状で可能な限りの姿勢を示したのは評価できる。

The U.S. central bank has made public its outlook for a benchmark interest rate for the first time, indicating that many of its 17 members do not anticipate the need to tighten its monetary policy in the near future.
　ＦＲＢは今回初めて、政策金利の見通しを示し、早期の金融引き締めを想定していないメンバーが多いことを明らかにした。

The Fed also set an acceptable rate of price increases at "2 percent from a year before," another noteworthy change that enhances the transparency of its policy handling.
　長期的に望ましい物価上昇率の目安を「前年比２％」と設定した点も、政策の透明性を高めるもので注目すべき変化である。

The 2 percent "inflation goal" is different from a formal "inflation target" that would make it mandatory for the Fed to take measures immediately after price increases exceed 2 percent on an annual basis.
　物価上昇率の「目安」とは、上昇率が２％から外れた時に、直ちに政策対応が必要な「インフレ目標」とは異なる。

The announcement of the inflation goal, or what the Fed believes is an acceptable inflation rate, however, is sufficiently effective to convey a clear-cut message that it places great importance on an inflation figure of 2 percent.
だが、２％を重視するメッセージは鮮明だ。

===

Yen's appreciation to linger

A protracted ultraeasy monetary policy may bring the risk of higher prices.
　超金融緩和が長引くと、物価上昇圧力が高まる恐れがある。

Bearing such anxieties in mind, the Fed has firmly stated it will continue to place top priority on price stabilization, an action that will reassure businesses and households.
そうした懸念に対し、ＦＲＢが物価安定をあくまで最優先していく姿勢を示したことは、企業や家計に安心感を与えるだろう。

The focus from now on will be whether the Fed, in the event of further financial market destabilization, will opt for Phase 3 of large-scale quantitative monetary easing, the so-called QE3.
　今後の焦点は、金融市場が一段と不安定になった場合、ＦＲＢが第３弾の大規模な量的緩和策（ＱＥ３）に踏み切るかどうかだ。

Phase 2--QE2--ended last summer, but it came under criticism for causing inflation in emerging economies to worsen.
　昨夏に終了した第２弾のＱＥ２は、新興国のインフレを招く副作用をもたらして批判された。

Therefore, a number of hurdles need to be surmounted before QE3 can be adopted.
ＱＥ３へのハードルは高いが、

The Fed will have a difficult time carrying out policies, while keeping an eye on how the European crisis evolves.
ＦＲＢは欧州危機の推移などを注視し、難しい舵(かじ)取りが求められる。

Japan, for its part, must consider the great possibility that the appreciation of the historically strong yen against the dollar will continue, as the Fed's ultraeasy monetary policy is bound to increase selling pressure on the greenback.
　日本にとっては、米国の超金融緩和策でドル売り圧力が強まり、歴史的な円高・ドル安が続くことに注意が必要である。

The government and the Bank of Japan must do everything they can in working out measures to stem the yen's appreciation and take measures to prevent the strong yen from worsening business activities in this country.
政府・日銀は、円高是正や円高対策に万全を期さねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 28, 2012)
（2012年1月28日01時14分 読売新聞）