米金融緩和策 縮小へ問われる「市場との対話」

The Yomiuri Shimbun August 3, 2013
Fed must cleverly pursue exit from quantitative easing policy
米金融緩和策　縮小へ問われる「市場との対話」（8月2日付・読売社説）

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has been assessing the appropriate timing for an exit strategy to scale back the current phase three of its quantitative monetary easing policy, known as QE3.
　米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が、異例の量的緩和策第３弾（ＱＥ３）を縮小する「出口戦略」の時期を巡り、模索を続けている。

What should the U.S. central bank do to begin tapering off the QE policies as soon as September without wreaking havoc on the market? The Fed is certain to tread a thorny path going forward in steering its monetary policy.
　混乱を招くことなく、９月にも踏み出せるのかどうか。難しい舵(かじ)取りを迫られよう。

A two-day meeting of the Fed’s policy-making Federal Open Market Committee was held Tuesday and Wednesday. During the meeting, a decision was made to continue QE3, which entails purchasing Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $85 billion (about 8.3 trillion yen) a month and a near-zero interbank interest rate policy.
　ＦＲＢは、連邦公開市場委員会（ＦＯＭＣ）を開き、米国債などを毎月８５０億ドル（約８・３兆円）買い入れているＱＥ３と、ゼロ金利政策の維持を決めた。

Chairman Ben Bernanke announced in June the central bank’s plan for an exit strategy to start slowing down the pace of bond purchases “later this year,” contingent upon ongoing positive economic data. Specifically, he said bond buying could wrap up “by mid-2014.”
　バーナンキＦＲＢ議長は６月、景気回復が想定通りならば、「年後半に資産購入ペースを縮小し、来年半ばに終了する」という出口の道筋を明らかにしていた。

Market players were closely watching the latest policy meeting to see whether the Fed would solidify further steps for scaling back the bond-buying program. The FOMC statement that was released on Wednesday, however, did not mention anything of the sort, instead saying the committee “is prepared to increase or reduce the pace” of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation. As for the commercial sector, the Fed slightly downgraded its economic outlook for the United States.
　今回注目されたのは、さらに踏み込んだ方針だったが、ＦＯＭＣ声明は言及せず、「購入ペースを増減する準備ができている」と指摘するにとどまった。米国の景気認識はやや下方修正した。

In response to heightened speculation that the central bank may start backing off of QE3 in September, Bernanke said “there is no preset course” for ending the Fed’s bond buying. He added, “Highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what’s needed” for the U.S. economy.
　議長は最近、９月にＱＥ３を縮小するとの観測が台頭していることに対し、「あらかじめ決まった道筋はない」とか、「予見しうる将来まで、極めて緩和的な金融政策が必要だ」と述べていた。

Caution promotes stability

Based on the latest FMOC statement and a series of remarks by the Fed chairman, it seems the U.S. central bank wants to prevent volatile market reactions yet maintain the flexibility to gradually curtail its ultraeasy monetary policy.
　ＦＯＭＣ声明と、一連の議長発言から読み取れるのは、市場の先走りを牽制(けんせい)し、条件が整えば緩和縮小に動くフリーハンドを握りたいという思惑である。

Stock prices on the New York exchange have been stable, with market players likely reacting favorably to the Fed’s cautious stance on implementing its exit strategy, which they see as conducive to stimulating business activity.
　ニューヨーク株価は落ち着いている。出口戦略を急がない姿勢は景気にプラスだと好感されたのだろう。

Given the circumstances, theories have begun emerging about the winding down of QE3 being postponed beyond the middle of next year.
ＱＥ３縮小の先送り説も市場に出始めた。

The Fed’s decision on when to scale back quantitative monetary easing will largely depend on the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy, which is still short of achieving a full-scale recovery.
　本格回復が遅れている米国景気の動向が、縮小時期の判断を左右することになろう。

A preliminary report on the United States’ inflation-adjusted gross national product for the April to June period showed an annualized 1.7 percent rise from the previous quarter. The positive figure was due mainly to such factors as strengthening of the housing sector and corporate capital investment in addition to robust personal spending.
　２０１３年４～６月期の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の速報値は、年率で前期比１・７％増を記録した。住宅投資や企業の設備投資が牽引(けんいん)役となり、個人消費も堅調だったのが主因である。

While the U.S. economy’s modest pace of expansion is encouraging, the national growth estimate for the January-March quarter was sharply revised downward to a 1.1 percent annual rate from the previously estimated 1.8 percent. It seems the economic prospects of the United States in and after the last half of 2013 remain uncertain.
　緩やかな回復基調にあることは好材料だが、一方で、１～３月期の成長率は１・８％から１・１％に下方修正された。下期以降の見通しは不透明と言えよう。

The fact that the U.S. labor market is still strained is worrying, as a rise in personal consumption is a prerequisite for comprehensive economic recovery.
　依然厳しい雇用情勢が懸念される。本格回復には、個人消費の勢いが強まることも欠かせない。

The Fed also takes issue with the country’s persistent annual inflation rate of about 1 percent, a rate significantly below the FOMC’s long-run objective of 2 percent inflation.
　ＦＲＢは、インフレ率が１％程度と、長期目標の２％を大きく下回っている点を問題視する。

Foreign markets have become increasingly susceptible to developments in U.S. monetary policy. Some observers have expressed anxiety that the winding down of QE3 could cause an outflow of cash from emerging economies.
　米金融政策を材料に、世界の市場が動揺しやすい展開が続いている。ＱＥ３縮小で新興国からのマネー流出を懸念する声もある。

Now is the time for the Fed to exercise its ingenuity to help stabilize the global economy by exploring means of further communication with the market.
　ＦＲＢが「市場との対話」をさらに工夫し、世界経済の安定を図ることが求められる局面だ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Aug. 2, 2013)
（2013年8月2日01時36分 読売新聞）