エジプト情勢 民政復帰への道のりは険しい

The Yomiuri Shimbun July 21, 2013
After military coup d'etat, Egypt faces bumpy road to civilian rule
エジプト情勢　民政復帰への道のりは険しい（7月20日付・読売社説）

Egypt’s provisional government has been inaugurated, led by interim President Adly Mansour. Mansour replaced former President Mohammed Morsi, who was dismissed in a de facto military coup d’etat.
　軍による事実上のクーデターによってモルシ前大統領が解任されたエジプトで、マンスール暫定大統領をトップとする暫定政府が発足した。

In fact, it is a military-led government. Defense Minister Abidel Fattah el-Sissi retains his post and doubles as the first vice premier. Many economic experts have been appointed as Cabinet ministers in light of the people’s discontent over the worsening economic situation and to make a show of the government’s emphasis on economic policy.
　実体は軍主導の政府だ。シシ国防相は留任し、第１副首相を兼任する。閣僚には、経済専門家が多数起用された。経済悪化への国民の不満に配慮し、経済重視をアピールする布陣である。

Mohamed ElBaradei, a former director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and other leaders of secular groups have been given key government posts.
　エルバラダイ前国際原子力機関（ＩＡＥＡ）事務局長ら世俗派の代表も政府の中枢に入った。

But the Muslim Brotherhood, Morsi’s support base, refused to join the interim government.
　だが、モルシ氏の支持基盤のイスラム主義組織・ムスリム同胞団は暫定政府への参加を拒んだ。

Stability cannot be expected

Given that the Islamist elements are not taking part in the government, it is hardly possible to expect the political situation to stabilize.
　イスラム主義勢力が政府に参加していない以上、政情が安定することはとても望めない。

Since the military took the extralegal step of detaining Morsi, who was elected by popular vote, Brotherhood supporters have continued protests in the streets, demanding Morsi’s reinstatement. Increasingly bloody consequences are feared in the wake of clashes between Brotherhood supporters and government security forces and other incidents.
　軍は、選挙で選ばれたモルシ氏を拘束した。超法規的措置だ。ムスリム同胞団はモルシ氏復職を求め、街頭で抗議行動を続けている。治安部隊との衝突などで流血の惨事が今後も起きる恐れがある。

Mansour has announced a political road map for return to a civilian government, probably with the aim of stabilizing national sentiment.
　暫定大統領が民政復帰への政治日程を発表したのも、民心の安定を図る狙いがあるのだろう。

The road map calls for a committee of experts from legal and other fields to draft a proposal on constitutional revision by October. The proposal will be put to a national referendum by November. A parliamentary election is scheduled to be held by January, and a procedure to elect a president will start after a new parliament is convened.
　１０月までに、法律専門家や各界代表から成る委員会が憲法改正案をまとめ、１１月までに国民投票にかける。来年１月までに議会選を実施し、議会招集後に大統領選の手続きを開始する。

But will things turn out as planned? A bumpy road lies ahead.
　想定通り進むか、どうか。前途は相当に険しい。

If Islamist forces are eliminated, the process will lack legitimacy. The interim government and the Brotherhood should sit down at a negotiating table as early as possible. Naturally, Morsi’s release is a prerequisite for this.
　イスラム主義勢力を排除すれば、こうしたプロセスも正当性を欠く。早期に暫定政府とムスリム同胞団は話し合いのテーブルにつくべきだ。モルシ氏の解放が、その前提であるのは当然だ。

In addition to restoring public safety and achieving a return to civilian rule, the interim government must strive to overcome an economic crisis. In particular, it is essential to bring back foreign tourists and investments.
　暫定政府は、治安回復や民政復帰だけでなく、経済危機の克服にも取り組まねばならない。とくに、観光客や外国からの投資を呼び戻すことが肝要だ。

Gulf monarchies vow aid

Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf monarchies, which are wary of the growing influence of Brotherhood elements in their own countries, have pledged to provide a huge amount of economic assistance for the Egyptian provisional government.
　ムスリム同胞団の勢力が自国内で伸長することを警戒するサウジアラビアなど、ペルシャ湾岸の君主国は、暫定政府に巨額の経済支援を約束した。

Using such aid as leverage, the interim government must work toward resolving a shortage of foreign exchange reserves and achieving a full-scale economic recovery.
　こうした支援をテコに、暫定政府は外貨準備不足の解消や経済の本格回復に努めねばならない。

Protracted chaos in Egypt would inevitably destabilize the Middle East as a whole, and spikes in crude oil prices and other destabilizing factors would adversely affect the world economy.
　エジプトの混乱が長引けば、中東全体が不安定となるのは避けられない。原油価格の高騰などで世界経済にも悪影響が及ぼう。

Japan, the United States and European countries have not suspended economic assistance to Egypt despite the coup. This is because they put priority on the stabilization of Egypt. They should cooperate in urging the military and interim government to realize national reconciliation and a return to civilian rule as early as possible.
　日本や米欧が、軍事クーデターが起きたにもかかわらず、経済援助を停止していないのも、エジプトの安定を優先するためだ。日米欧は連携して、国民和解と民政復帰の早期実現を、軍や暫定政府に働きかける必要がある。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 20, 2013)
（2013年7月20日01時02分 読売新聞）