シリア情勢 露主導の停戦に不安が残る

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Uncertainties remain about Russia-led ceasefire to end Syrian civil war
シリア情勢　露主導の停戦に不安が残る

The ceasefire brokered by the United States and Russia to end the Syrian civil war has taken effect. Fighting between the administration of President Bashar Assad and antigovernment groups has largely subsided but it remains to be seen whether the truce can be maintained.
　シリア内戦を巡り、米国とロシアが共に呼びかけた停戦が発効した。アサド政権と反体制派の戦闘は概おおむね沈静化したが、このまま維持できるかどうかは予断を許さない。

Large-scale fighting has been halted temporarily for the first time in the five years since the start of the civil war. The United Nations has announced a plan for peace talks, suspended in early February, to resume next Monday. The ceasefire must be maintained to help promote these talks.
　５年に及ぶ内戦で大規模な戦闘が一時停止したのは、初めてである。国連は、２月上旬から中断している和平協議を７日に再開する方針を発表した。停戦を保ち、協議進展につなげねばならない。

The main framework of the ceasefire agreement is for the Assad regime and rebel groups to end their hostilities and accept food and water supplies for citizens from the United Nations and other organizations. The accord also calls for both parties to resume peace talks and discuss how to implement a road map starting with the establishment of a transitional government and leading to an election and formation of a new government.
　アサド政権と反体制派が攻撃を中止し、国連などによる住民向けの食糧や水を受け入れることが停戦の主な枠組みだ。和平協議に応じ、移行政権樹立から選挙実施、新政権発足までの行程表の履行を話し合うことも含まれる。

The truce does not apply to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militant group, the Al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front and other terrorist organizations. The U.S.-led coalition and Russia are permitted to continue military campaigns against these groups.
　過激派組織「イスラム国」や、アル・カーイダ系の「ヌスラ戦線」などのテロ組織には、停戦は適用されない。米国主導の有志連合やロシアは、こうした勢力への軍事作戦を継続できる。

ISIL has stated it will try to thwart the ceasefire by continuing hostilities and terrorist attacks. Resolute responses are needed by the countries concerned.
　「イスラム国」は、戦闘やテロを続け、停戦を妨害する構えを示している。関係国の断固とした対処が求められよう。

Ukraine a vexing precedent

One worry is a scenario in which the Assad regime and its ally Russia attack rebel groups under the pretext of wiping out terrorist groups, thereby breaking the truce.
　懸念されるのは、アサド政権と、政権を支援するロシアがテロ組織掃討の名目で反体制派を攻撃し、停戦が破られる事態だ。

Before the ceasefire went into effect, air raids were carried out on the rebels’ stronghold in Aleppo on the grounds that Nusra Front fighters “are in the neighborhood.”
停戦前の反体制派拠点アレッポへの空爆も、「ヌスラ戦線兵士が周辺にいる」ことが理由になっていた。

The activities of the Nusra Front and the rebel groups overlap in many areas. Can Russia give a good explanation that it is not attacking the rebels?
　ヌスラ戦線と反体制派の活動範囲は、重なる場合が多い。ロシアは、反体制派を攻撃していないという十分な説明ができるのか。

The ceasefire will be monitored by U.S., Russian and other working teams, but their operations are limited to information-gathering in areas where Russian troops are stationed and in Jordan, a country adjacent to Syria.
　停戦監視は、米露などの作業チームが、シリアの露軍駐屯地や隣国ヨルダンなどで、情報収集を進めるにとどまっている。

The effectiveness of the truce cannot be assured unless an international framework including the United Nations is established to confirm on the spot when the ceasefire is violated and to respond adequately.
国連などが現地で停戦違反を確認し、対応する体制でなければ、実効性は期待できない。

U.S. President Barack Obama revealed his suspicions about Russia over the truce, saying that he was “not under any illusions.” He made this statement likely because of what happened in the Ukrainian conflict. While calling for a ceasefire, Russia continued to provide assistance to pro-Russia armed groups.
　オバマ米大統領は停戦について、「いかなる幻想も抱いていない」と述べ、ロシアへの不信を露あらわにした。ウクライナ紛争での前例があるからだろう。ロシアは停戦を呼びかける一方で、親露派武装集団への支援を続けた。

The truce this time was reached with Moscow taking the leading role. Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “The true opportunity for ending bloodshed and violence has finally come.” He made this statement likely because he had ascertained that the Assad regime could be kept in place and Russia could secure influence in the Middle East to counter that of the United States.
　今回の停戦を主導したのはロシアだ。プーチン大統領は「流血と暴力に終止符を打つ真の機会がようやく訪れた」と語った。アサド政権の温存や、中東で米国に対抗する影響力の確保に、メドがついたという判断からではないか。

The U.S.-Russia struggle for hegemony will only make it more difficult to resolve the conflict. Unless the civil war is ended, ISIL will not be weakened and the outflow of refugees will not be curbed. The international community must not forget this.
　米露の覇権争いは、事態収拾を困難にするだけである。内戦が終結しなければ、「イスラム国」の弱体化や難民流出の抑制への道が開かれないことを、国際社会は忘れてはなるまい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 1, 2016)