デフレ認定 日銀は政府と危機感の共有を

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Nov. 21, 2009)
BOJ must get serious about deflation
デフレ認定　日銀は政府と危機感の共有を（11月21日付・読売社説）

The Japanese economy, as had been widely expected, is mired in deflation as prices continue to fall.
　やはり日本経済は、物価が下がり続けるデフレに陥っていた。

In a monthly economic report released Friday, the government acknowledged the economy is in a mild deflationary phase and warned that deflation could impede the nation's recovery.
　政府は月例経済報告で「緩やかなデフレ状況にある」と認定し、デフレが景気を腰折れさせる恐れがあるとの見方を示した。

In March 2001, the government for the first time in the postwar period acknowledged that the nation's economy was in deflation due to prolonged price drops. The government has not declared that the economy has overcome this deflation. Conversely, deflation has returned to haunt the economy before a full recovery could be confirmed.
　政府は２００１年３月、物価下落が長期化したため、戦後初めてデフレを認定したが、今も脱却宣言はない。全快を確認できないまま、デフレがぶり返した。

The government and the Bank of Japan must closely cooperate and use all available policy tools to ensure a complete departure from deflation this time.
　政府と日銀は、連携を密に政策を総動員し、今度こそ完治を図らねばならない。

Falling prices are good news for consumers. But lower prices mean reduced profits for companies, which often results in job and salary cuts. If this situation generates drops in consumption and further price falls, the economy could tumble into a deflationary spiral.
　物価が下がれば消費者にとってはうれしいが、企業の利益は減少し、給料カットや失業として跳ね返る。その影響による消費の減少で物価がさらに下がれば、デフレと不況が連鎖するデフレスパイラルにつながる。

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Economic prospects gloomy

A lack of demand is the prime cause of deflation. Accordingly, bringing an end to deflation will require boosting demand. However, the future of the nation's economy is uncertain.
　デフレからの脱却には、最大の原因である需要不足の解消が欠かせないが、先行きは不透明だ。

Gross domestic product has registered positive growth for the past two consecutive quarters thanks to the government's stimulus measures, such as the eco point purchase incentive program for energy-efficient home appliances and the subsidy scheme for eco-friendly vehicles.
　家電のエコポイントやエコカー補助などが奏功し、実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は、この２四半期連続でプラス成長となった。

But the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high and winter bonuses are set to be cut significantly. Prospects for the year-end shopping season are decidedly gloomy. The impact of the freeze on some public works projects under the administration of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is yet another cause for concern. Compounding this grim situation, the appreciation of the yen pushes down prices of imported products.
　だが、失業率は高く、冬のボーナスも大幅減が確実だ。年末商戦の見通しは暗い。鳩山内閣が公共事業の一部を凍結した影響も心配だ。円高で輸入品が安くなるもうひとつのデフレも懸念される。

The government intends to make measures related to employment, the environment and child care the centerpieces of a second supplementary budget for this fiscal year and the initial budget for next fiscal year.
　政府は、今年度２次補正予算と来年度当初予算を、雇用、環境、子どもへの対策を重点に編成するという。

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Govt must watch its pennies

But the government is facing a severe fiscal situation. If a massive amount of government bonds were issued, interest rates might rise sharply. The government must avoid resorting to generous spending. Instead, it should make proper budget allocations that focus on projects that will likely generate an immediate expansion in demand.
　ただ、財政は厳しい。国債を大増発すれば金利が急上昇しかねない。大盤振る舞いを避け、需要拡大に即効性のある事業に絞った予算配分が必要となろう。

Some government officials reportedly have floated the idea of introducing a housing version of the eco point scheme. We hope the government comes up with effective measures, without merely sticking to its policy pledges just for sake of doing so.
　政府内には「住宅版エコポイント」などの新たなアイデアもあるという。子ども手当などの政権公約にとらわれず、効果的な対策に知恵を絞ってもらいたい。

Compiling a mid- to long-term strategy to achieve private sector-driven growth without relying only on fiscal measures to stimulate demand remains an urgent task on the government's to-do list.
　需要の穴埋めを財政だけに頼らず、民間主導の成長実現に向けた中長期的な戦略も、策定を急がねばならない。

Meanwhile, we doubt if the Bank of Japan, which should play a central role in combating deflation, is taking the price falls as seriously as the government is.
　一方、デフレ退治の主役であるべき日銀が、デフレへの危機感を、政府としっかり共有しているのか疑問がある。

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Thursday said deflation in Japan would linger through 2011. The organization also called on the Bank of Japan to fight deflation with quantitative easing measures.
　経済協力開発機構（ＯＥＣＤ）は１９日、日本のデフレが２０１１年まで続くとし、日銀に量的金融緩和で戦うべきだと提言した。

At a policy board meeting Friday, however, the central bank decided to keep the current key interest rate unchanged. Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa suggested additional measures, such as further quantitative easing, are not needed.
　だが、日銀は２０日の金融政策決定会合で政策を現状維持し、白川方明総裁は量的緩和の拡大など追加策は不要との考えを示した。

The central bank appears to lack the government's concern when it comes to deflation.
　政府より、デフレに対する認識が甘いのではないか。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 21, 2009)
（2009年11月21日01時28分 読売新聞）