中国共産党大会 強硬路線の継承を懸念する

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Nov. 10, 2012)
Concern grows over China's continued hard-line policy
中国共産党大会　強硬路線の継承を懸念する（11月9日付・読売社説）

It is now obvious that China's new generation of Communist Party and national leaders will continue to pursue policies aimed at bolstering both its economic and military might, seeking to become "a rich country with a strong army."
　経済力と軍事力を膨張させる富国強兵路線を、新指導部が継承することが明確になった。

The Congress of the Communist Party of China, which meets every five years, is under way.
　５年に１度の中国共産党大会が開幕した。

During the ruling party convention, Vice President Xi Jinping is expected to be inaugurated as general secretary and a significant majority of the top echelons of China's leadership will be replaced.
　今大会では習近平国家副主席が総書記に就任し、指導部が大幅に交代する。

The Congress is of great importance as it will set the path China will take over the next 10 years.
中国の今後１０年の針路を決定づける重要な大会だ。

In a report on the party's action policy over the next five years delivered at the opening of the Congress on Thursday, President Hu Jintao, who is due to step down as general secretary, affirmed Beijing's resolve to accelerate modernization of its military to defend Chinese territory, and strongly emphasized the nation's determination to protect its maritime interests.
　総書記を退く胡錦濤国家主席は今後５年の党の活動方針となる政治報告で、領土を防衛するために軍の近代化を加速し、海洋権益を断固守る姿勢を強調した。

The remarks by Hu seemed to be addressing the heightened tensions between Japan and China over Japan's recent nationalization of the Senkaku Islands, several thorny territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and the new diplomatic policy of the United States to refocus its strategic attention on Asia.
　尖閣諸島の国有化を巡る日本との激しい対立や南シナ海の領有権問題に関する摩擦、米国の「アジア重視」の新戦略を念頭に置いたものだろう。

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Simmering anger over injustice

There is every sign China's hard-line stance toward Japan over the Senkakus will continue.
　尖閣問題で中国の対日強硬姿勢が続くのは避けられまい。

Japan, for its part, must support mid- and long-term strategies toward China by strengthening ties with Southeast Asian nations based on the Japan-U.S. alliance.
日本は日米同盟を基軸に東南アジア諸国とも連携し、中長期的な対中戦略を練らなければならない。

In the speech, Hu also stated a goal of doubling China's gross domestic product by 2020 and per capita incomes nationwide in a decade, both compared to 2010 levels.
　胡氏はまた、２０２０年の国内総生産や１人当たりの所得を１０年に比べて２倍にするとの目標も打ち出した。

To achieve this, China must maintain a yearly growth rate of about 7 percent. Since the days of hard-charging growth appear to be in the past, fulfilling these goals will not be easy.
年率７％程度の成長を維持していく必要がある。だが、かつてのような高成長は望めず、目標達成は容易ではない。

Over the past decade, China has successfully hosted a summer Olympics and a World Expo, as well as claimed from Japan the No. 2 spot in terms of economic size.
　この１０年、中国は北京五輪と上海万博を成功させ、日本を抜き世界第２位の経済大国となった。

However, in the shadows of spectacular growth lies a widening gap between rich and poor, as well as deepening public anger over inequities in the administration of justice and rampant corruption among local bureaucrats. Violent demonstrations have erupted over these issues in many parts of China.
　成長の陰で、貧富の格差が広がり、不公正な司法や地方官僚の腐敗などに対する国民の反発が暴動となって各地で噴出している。

Hu's declaration that the government will do its utmost to shrink income disparities by "deepening reform of income allocation systems" likely came out of a strong sense of urgency over the matter.
　胡氏が「所得分配制度の改革を深化させる」として格差解消に全力を挙げる方針を訴えたのは、強い危機感の裏返しと言える。

People aged 60 or older accounted for 12.5 percent of China's population in 2009, and this number is projected to rise to 18 percent by 2020. Further delays in improving the social safety net and related matters could easily stir up social unrest.
　０９年末に総人口の１２・５％だった６０歳以上の高齢者は２０年に１８％になる見込みだ。社会保障などの整備の遅れは、社会を一層不安定にさせる要因となろう。

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Hidden power struggle

In the national Congress, the party's platform is set to be revised to upgrade Hu's "scientific development concept," which is designed to realize a well-balanced, sustainable society, to the level of Mao Zedong thought and the theories of other supreme leaders of China.
　大会では党規約を改正し、調和のとれた持続可能な発展を目指す胡氏の戦略思想「科学的発展観」を毛沢東ら歴代指導者の思想と同列の指導思想に格上げする方針だ。

The move is seen as reflecting Hu's desire to retain influence even after retiring from the country's top post.
引退後も自らの影響力を保ちたい胡氏の狙いがうかがえる。

The announcement of the schedule for the Congress was delayed an extraordinary full month compared to past party conventions. The delay seems to have been primarily due to trouble in agreeing over how Bo Xilai, the former chief of the southwestern city of Chongqing, should be punished. Bo has already lost his party membership over allegations of massive corruption and other reasons.
　大会の日程発表は通常より１か月も遅れる異例の事態となった。巨額収賄などを理由に党籍を剥奪した元重慶市トップ薄煕来氏の処分を巡る調整が難航したためとみられる。

Power struggles within the Communist Party were likely behind the delay, though what exactly happened remains murky.
党内の権力闘争が影を落とした形だが、真相は不明だ。

It appears the Congress will not address political reform, including easing of control over freedom of speech.
　言論統制の緩和など政治改革は手付かずだ。

Hu said in his speech that Beijing is prepared to "proceed actively as well as appropriately in the task of reforming the political system." But we cannot help but wonder how successful China will be in materializing any meaningful reform.
政治報告は「政治体制改革を積極的かつ穏当に推進する」とうたうが、どこまで改革を進められるのか。

The new party leadership under Xi will begin its rule burdened with a heavy task load.
習近平体制に重い宿題が残されることになる。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 9, 2012)
（2012年11月9日01時21分 読売新聞）