中国経済リスク 「影の銀行」収束への険しい道

The Yomiuri Shimbun March 23, 2014
China faces difficult task in trying to reduce risks of ‘shadow banking’
中国経済リスク　「影の銀行」収束への険しい道（3月23日付・読売社説）

China must rein in the expansion of “shadow banking” activities that are threatening to drag the Chinese economy down to avert financial turmoil. The Chinese government is now being confronted by a thorny policy-handling task.
　中国経済の足を引っ張る「シャドーバンキング」（影の銀行）の拡大を食い止め、混乱を回避すべきだ。中国政府は難しい舵かじ取りを迫られる。

A struggling manufacturer of solar cells and panels in Shanghai failed early this month to meet interest payments on corporate bonds it issued, the first debt default in the history of China’s corporate bond market.
　上海市の太陽光パネルメーカーが今月初め、経営に行き詰まって社債の金利を払えず、中国社債市場で初めて、債務不履行（デフォルト）に陥った。

In this connection, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has said the government was prepared to allow defaults on some financial products. This switch on China’s financial policy is significant, and should be considered carefully.
　李克強首相はこれに関連し、金融商品のデフォルトを一部容認する考えを示した。政府の方針転換であり、その意味は重い。

Financial authorities in China have so far been bailing businesses and investors out of trouble, but there can be no denying that doing so has contributed to creating moral hazards among market players.
　中国当局は従来、危機に陥った企業や投資家を救済してきたが、市場のモラルハザード（倫理の欠如）を助長した面は否めない。

Allowing the solar equipment maker’s bond default may have been aimed at warning investors by informing them that there may be bond defaults in the future depending on circumstances.
　パネルメーカーのデフォルト容認は、場合によってはデフォルトもあり得ることを示し、投資家に警告するのが狙いだろう。

This seems to indicate a sense of crisis that shadow banking, or financial transactions not mediated by commercial banks, have continued to bloat, threatening to gnaw away at the Chinese economy as a whole.
　背景には、銀行を介さない金融取引であるシャドーバンキングが膨張し、中国経済を蝕むしばんでいることへの危機感がうかがえる。

Many investors have flocked to speculative financial instruments, such as those marketed by nonbank entities trumpeting high yields. There have been many instances such as investment companies under the umbrella of local governments engaging in real-estate development projects by leveraging such investment funds, while companies unable to obtain loans from banks have been issuing corporate bonds with nonbanks as subscribers.
　投資家はノンバンクなどの高利回りの財テク商品に群がった。地方政府傘下の投資会社がそれらを原資に不動産開発を進めたり、銀行から融資を受けにくい企業が社債を発行し、ノンバンクが引き受けたりする例が目立つ。

If a local government or company with a huge amount of liabilities faces a funding shortfall, it will be unavoidable for investors to suffer losses.
　巨額債務を抱えた地方政府や企業が行き詰まると、投資家に被害が及ぶことが避けられない。

‘China risk’ affecting stocks

Even more troublesome is the fact that the actual state of shadow banking services has been shrouded in opacity. An estimate has been released that funds poured into shadow banking stand at a value amounting to half of China’s gross domestic product, so Beijing’s decision to place curbs on the swelling shadow banking money is right and proper.
　さらに厄介なのが、シャドーバンキングの不透明な実態である。総額が国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の半分に達するという推計もある中、膨張マネーに歯止めをかけようとする政策判断はもっともだ。

In addition to the policy of allowing bond defaults, it is also noteworthy that Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan of the People’s Bank of China has said the central bank is considering the liberalization of bank deposit rates, the upper limits on which are currently fixed, in one to two years.
　デフォルト容認方針とともに、中央銀行にあたる中国人民銀行の周小川総裁が、上限規制がある預金金利を１～２年以内に自由化する方針を示した点も重要だ。

It seems that China’s financial authorities, through the liberalization of interest rates, are ready to brake the flow of capital that has been pouring into speculative financial instruments, as investors are averse to low-interest bank deposits.
　金利自由化によって、低い預金金利を嫌って財テク商品に流入してきた資金の流れにブレーキをかけようとしているようだ。

Drastic reform measures for reducing shadow banking activities are indispensable. There also are concerns, however, over the adverse impact on the Chinese economy if the envisioned reform is undertaken too hastily.
　シャドーバンキングを縮小させるための大胆な改革は欠かせない。一方で、改革を急ぎすぎることによる副作用も懸念される。

The adverse consequences could be aggravated in the event of a contraction of credit, resulting in local governments and businesses to have cash-flow problems.
　信用収縮によって、地方政府や企業の資金繰りが相次いで行き詰まるような事態を招けば、悪影響が広がるだろう。

Stock prices in New York, Tokyo and elsewhere have continued to fluctuate erratically with the “China risk” being cited as one of the major factors behind the instability.
　ニューヨーク、東京などの株式市場では、中国リスクが一因となり、株価の乱高下が続く。

Will China be successful in dowsing the overheated economic bubble and in soft-landing the country’s economy, which has continued to slow down, by putting it on a stable growth track of around 7.5 percent a year?
　バブル過熱を制御し、景気減速傾向が続く中国経済を７・５％程度の安定成長に軟着陸させられるか。

China, the world’s second largest economic power, is continuing to walk on a tightrope.
世界２位の経済大国・中国の綱渡りが続いている。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 23, 2014)
（2014年3月23日01時42分 読売新聞）