中国金融リスク 「影の銀行」を野放しにするな

The Yomiuri Shimbun July 2, 2013
Chinese authorities must control nation’s shadow banking sector
中国金融リスク　「影の銀行」を野放しにするな（7月1日付・読売社説）

The volume of transactions in China’s shadow banking sector, in which financial transactions are handled outside the traditional commercial banks, is growing fast. The potential ill effects of this explosive supply of opaque money in the market are immense. We must remain on the lookout for possible disarray in the Chinese economy.
　中国で銀行を介さない金融取引の「シャドーバンキング」（影の銀行）が急拡大している。
　不透明なマネー膨張の弊害は大きい。中国経済の混乱に要警戒だ。

The Shanghai Composite Index plunged last week, falling below the 2,000 benchmark for the first time in about half a year. On June 24, it recorded the steepest single-day drop in four years.
　上海総合株価指数が先週、急落した。約半年ぶりに２０００の大台を割り込み、２４日は４年ぶりの大幅な下落率だった。

The decline was triggered when the short-term interbank offered rate suddenly spiked to an all-time high, causing concerns over the worsening cash flow of banks and prompting the sell-off of stocks.
　きっかけは、中国の銀行同士が資金を融通し合う際の短期金利が一時、過去最高水準に急騰したことだ。銀行の資金繰りの悪化が懸念され、株が売られた。

Despite the decline, the People’s Bank of China, the country’s equivalent of a central bank, did not expand its injection of cash into the market, an unusual case of not helping to lower the interbank offered rate.
　にもかかわらず、中央銀行に相当する中国人民銀行が、市場への資金供給を拡大せず、金利低下を促さなかったのは異例だ。

Bubbles forming

For the time being, the bank will apparently allow some increase in the rate, an attempt to apply de facto monetary tightening.
　当面は、一定の金利上昇を容認し、事実上の金融引き締めを図ろうとしているのだろう。

Behind the bank’s reaction is the spread of various forms of shadow banking, causing economic bubbles in some sectors.
　背景に、シャドーバンキングが蔓延(まんえん)し、一部でバブル現象が起きている事情がある。

For instance, investment firms affiliated with municipal governments have been expanding their real estate development and public works projects by using a massive amount of funds borrowed at high interest rates outside the traditional banking institutions.
　例えば、地方政府系の投資会社は銀行を介さずに高金利で借りた巨額の資金を使って、不動産開発や公共事業を拡大している。

Many of those municipal governments are burdened with huge amounts of debt. Their inability to repay their debts could spark repercussions in the management of businesses that have extended loans to them.
　多額の債務を抱える地方政府は多い。借入金の返済が滞れば、資金の貸し手である企業などの経営危機に飛び火しかねない。

It is also problematic that loans extended to such entities as local governments are refinanced by bundling them and repackaging them as “small-lot wealth management products,” by offering a much higher rate of return than bank deposits.These products have been massively sold to private business firms and individuals by nonbank institutions. In such cases, there is a risk of a loss of principle.
　地方政府向けなどの貸出債権を小口化した「理財商品」と呼ばれる高利回りの財テク商品が、ノンバンクなどから企業や個人に大量販売されていることも問題だ。売り手が償還資金を手当てできず、元本割れするリスクがある。

The current situation resembles the so-called subprime loan crisis that occurred in the United States, sending the world economy into disarray.
　かつて世界経済を混乱させた米国のサブプライムローン問題を彷彿(ほうふつ)とさせる状況と言えよう。

The size of the shadow banking sector is estimated at 30 trillion yuan (about 480 trillion yen). But the real scale of off-balance sheet financial transactions of the sector is hardly known. Even the Chinese authorities may not be able to grasp the reality.
　シャドーバンキングの規模は総額３０兆元（約４８０兆円）に上るとの推計があるが、取引の実態は見えない。中国当局ですら、正確には把握できていないだろう。

A senior official at the People’s Bank of China said, “Imps must be punished,” suggesting the shadow banking sectors must be dealt with strictly. We can understand the authorities’ policy of curbing excessive growth of the money supply and accelerating moves to stamp out the economic bubble.
　人民銀行幹部は、「悪い子供は罰するべきだ」と述べ、厳しく対処する姿勢を示した。マネーの膨張を食い止め、バブル退治を急ごうとする方針は理解できる。

Slowdown continues

If the shadow banking sectors are left uncontrolled, the bubble will eventually burst, raising fears of major havoc triggered by China spreading the world over.
　シャドーバンキングを野放しにすれば、膨れたバブルがいずれ崩壊し、世界に波及する「中国発の大混乱」が起きる恐れもある。

Meanwhile, the country’s real economic growth has fallen below 8 percent, and its economic slowdown continues. But it would be a mistake for the authorities to cause the country’s economy to further lose momentum by too rapidly curbing the shadow banking system.
　ただ、中国の実質経済成長率は８％を割り、景気減速が続く。当局の急激な締め付けで、景気を失速させては本末転倒だ。

It is indeed a difficult situation. The Chinese authorities must be very careful in steering the economy.
　難しい局面だが、中国当局の細心の舵(かじ)取りが求められる。

It would also be serious if the Japanese economic recovery were stalled by such factors as a decline in its exports to China. This is not someone else’s problem. We need to be watchful for any abnormality in China’s economy.
　日本も中国向け輸出減少などで景気回復がもたつく事態となれば大変だ。対岸の火事ではない。中国経済の変調に注意したい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 1, 2013)
（2013年7月1日01時35分 読売新聞）