中国ＧＤＰ減速 安定成長へ構造改革が急務だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun
China needs structural reforms to achieve stable economic growth
中国ＧＤＰ減速　安定成長へ構造改革が急務だ

How can China’s economy shift onto a track of stable growth, while preventing itself from stalling?
　景気の腰折れを防ぎながら、いかに安定した成長軌道へ移行するか。

Steering China’s economy as its growth continues to slow down has become an ever more difficult task.
　減速が続く中国経済の舵かじ取りは、一段と難度を高めている。

China’s real gross domestic product grew 6.9 percent year on year in 2015, the lowest growth in 25 years.
　中国の２０１５年の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）が前年比６・９％増と、２５年ぶりの低い伸びとなった。

The sluggish growth primarily stems from slackened investment and production activities, as efforts to get rid of excessive production capacity and real property inventory have made little progress.
過剰な生産設備や不動産在庫の解消が進まず、投資や生産活動が鈍ったのが主因だ。

Exports also declined 2.8 percent from the previous year. As the country’s price competitiveness weakened due to rising labor costs, its status as “the world’s factory,” exporting and selling low-priced products in great volume, has lost much of its luster.
　輸出も前年より２・８％減少した。人件費の上昇で価格競争力が弱まり、安価な製品を大量に輸出・販売する「世界の工場」の地位が色あせてきた。

China had set its full-year growth target at “around 7 percent.” The National Bureau of Statistics of China emphasized that “the 6.9 percent growth is still in line with the government target.” But the country’s high growth model led by investment and exports is already approaching its limits.
　中国は成長目標を「７％前後」としてきた。国家統計局は「６・９％の成長率は政府の目標に符合している」と強調したが、投資と輸出中心の高成長モデルはもはや限界に近づいている。

It is a matter of urgency for China to shift to a consumption-driven growth model, as advocated by the administration of President Xi Jinping.
　習近平政権の掲げる消費主導の成長モデルへの転換が急務だ。

The Chinese authorities said they will promote structural reforms, such as reducing the systemic oversupply of steel and coal. Temporary stimulus measures alone, such as increasing public spending, will not be sufficient. It may be necessary to force through reforms while overcoming resistance from state-owned enterprises and local governments stubbornly hanging on to their vested interests.
　当局は、鉄鋼や石炭の過剰供給体制の縮小など、構造改革を進めるという。財政出動などの一時的な景気刺激策だけでは不十分だ。既得権益に固執する国有企業や地方政府の抵抗を抑えて、改革を断行する必要があるだろう。

Better numbers needed

In stimulating consumption, developing new products and new services sought by consumers would be effective. In order to bring out the vigor of the private sector, which would serve as a pillar of innovation, it is essential to reorganize and shrink state-owned enterprises.
　消費喚起には、顧客の望む新製品や新たなサービスの開発が有効だ。イノベーション（技術革新）の担い手となる民間の活力を引き出すためにも、国有企業の再編・縮小が欠かせない。

It is worrisome that China’s economic statistics lack credibility. There is strong suspicion that the Chinese authorities calculate statistics on the high side to make the nation’s economy look better than it really is. They should not relax their reform efforts, while patching things up for the time being with make-believe figures.
　気がかりなのは、中国の経済統計が信頼性を欠いていることだ。経済を実際より良く見せるため、当局が統計を高めに算出しているとの疑念は根強い。見せかけの数字で当座を取り繕って、改革の手を緩めてはなるまい。

Concerns over the uncertain outlook of the Chinese economy and the yuan’s fall have brought about a vicious cycle in the international flow of money, becoming a serious risk factor for the global economy.
　中国経済の先行き懸念と人民元安は、国際的な資金の流れに悪循環を引き起こし、世界経済の深刻なリスク要因になっている。

The projected decline in China’s oil demand, in line with its economic slowdown, has further dampened crude oil prices. Drops in crude oil prices are driving the “oil money” of the oil-producing countries in the Middle East, whose fiscal conditions have deteriorated, to return to their domestic markets, which is said to be a factor behind a worldwide decline in stock prices.
　景気減速に伴う中国の石油需要の減退予測は、原油価格の低迷に拍車をかけた。原油安は、財政が悪化した中東産油国の「オイルマネー」を国内へと回帰させ、世界株安の一因とされる。

Further decline in the value of the yuan has accelerated an exodus of capital out of the country. Fears are rising that the performance of Chinese companies, burdened with debts denominated in foreign currencies, will deteriorate.
　人民元安の進行は、資本の国外流出を加速させた。外貨建ての負債を抱える中国企業の業績を悪化させる恐れが高まっている。

Also, in order to keep the yuan from weakening further, it is important to create an environment for foreign investment funds to go back to China again, by promoting financial system reforms, including easing regulations on currency trading and liberalization of interest rates.
　人民元安に歯止めをかけるためにも、為替取引の規制緩和や金利自由化などの金融制度改革を進めて、中国に再び投資資金が向かう環境を整えることが肝要だ。

Grasping the structural change in China’s economy, Japanese businesses also have to review their business plans so that they can meet the new needs of consumers and businesses in China.
　日本企業も中国経済の構造変化を捉え、中国の消費者や企業の新しいニーズに応えられるよう、ビジネスを見直さねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 20, 2016)