公示地価 不動産デフレ脱却へもう一息

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Mar. 26, 2013)
Revitalization of business crucial to escaping real estate deflation
公示地価　不動産デフレ脱却へもう一息（3月25日付・読売社説）

Land prices have been showing stronger signs of bottoming out. To make it possible to restore real estate prices to normal levels and lead the nation out of deflation, the government must accelerate economic revitalization.
　地価の底入れの兆しが一段と強まってきた。不動産価格を正常化させ、デフレから脱却できるよう、政府は経済活性化を急がねばならない。

Posted land prices as of Jan. 1 this year, which were announced last week by the Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry, dropped 1.6 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, in residential and commercial areas from a year before. This marked year-on-year negative growth for the fifth straight year since the Lehman shock in the autumn of 2008.
　国土交通省が発表した２０１３年１月１日時点の公示地価は、全国の住宅地で前年比１・６％、商業地で２・１％下落した。０８年秋のリーマン・ショック以降、ともに５年連続のマイナスだった。

However, the bright side is that the margin of decline shrank for three consecutive years. Above all, it may be said that the bottom is in sight in three major metropolitan areas where the margin of decline remained below 1 percent.
　下落幅が３年連続で縮小したのは明るい材料だ。中でも３大都市圏の下落幅は０％台で、下げ止まりが視野に入ったと言える。

The year-on-year fall in the average land price contracted in almost all prefectures. This indicates that the situation is improving in both urban and regional areas.
　都道府県別の平均値も、ほぼすべてで下落幅が縮まった。都市圏から地方圏へ、改善傾向が広がっていることをうかがわせる。

Funds have been flowing into the real estate market on hopes for the economic revitalization policies put forth by Shinzo Abe before he became prime minister. If this trend continues, it will spur a rebound in land prices.
　安倍首相が就任前から掲げた経済再生に対する期待が先行し、不動産市場に資金が流入している。こうした動きが続けば、地価の回復に弾みがつくだろう。

===

Signs of recovery

Improvement is conspicuous in residential zones as a result of such policies as low interest rates and tax deductions for people who take out housing loans.
　住宅地で改善が目立つのは、低金利や住宅ローン減税などの政策効果が下支えしたのが要因だ。

In Tokyo, some areas showed positive growth compared to no change the year before, thanks to brisk sales of condominiums.
　東京では前年ゼロだった上昇地点が現れた。マンション販売が堅調なことが背景にある。

It is noteworthy that land prices are coming out of a slump in commercial areas, particularly in metropolitan areas, which tended to lag residential areas in the pace of their recovery.
　住宅地に比べて遅れ気味だった商業地が、都市部を手始めに持ち直してきたのも注目できる。

The number of spots with higher land prices increased in redevelopment areas centering on large-scale commercial facilities such as Tokyo Skytree and areas where there is strong demand for moving to newly built houses and condominiums with advanced earthquake resistance.
　東京スカイツリーなど大規模な商業施設を中核とした再開発地域や、耐震性に優れた新築物件への移転需要が根強い地域などで上昇地点が増えている。

Vacancy rates are falling, and the drop in rents is coming to an end.
　空室率の低下、賃料の下げ止まりといった傾向が見え始めた。

Investments, mainly from after parts of Asia, seem to be expanding. This is possible because real estate in Japan is considered relatively inexpensive, as the yen has weakened due to monetary easing policies.
　アジアを中心とする海外からの投資マネーも増大しているようだ。金融緩和に伴う円安の進行などで日本の不動産に割安感が出ているのだろう。

===

A matter of concern

Improvement is slow in regional commercial areas facing structural problems such as shrinking populations and battered economies.
　一方、人口減や地域経済の疲弊など構造的な要因を抱える地方の商業地は改善テンポが鈍い。

In the areas devastated by the tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake, the polarization has weakened between land prices in tsunami-affected coastal areas and in higher areas that escaped being inundated.
　東日本大震災の被災地では、津波被害に見舞われた沿岸部と浸水を免れた高台で地価が二極化する現象は薄まっている。

But it is worrying that a growing number of areas are showing a sharp rise in land prices as the demand to move expands due to the progress of reconstruction projects.
　しかし、復興事業が進展し、住宅移転への需要が拡大するのに伴い、地価の急上昇する地点が増えている点は気がかりだ。

The residential area in Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture, marked the biggest rate of increase in land prices for two years in a row. Land prices turned upward across the board in municipalities in Miyagi and Iwate prefectures along the Pacific coast.
Miyagi topped the national list of prefectures in terms of the growth rate in land prices.
　地価上昇率トップの住宅地は２年連続で宮城県石巻市だった。宮城、岩手両県の沿岸市町村は軒並み上昇に転じ、県別でも宮城県が全国一の上昇率を記録した。

The central and local governments concerned should beef up their surveillance to prevent sharp jumps in land prices that will have an adverse effect on housing reconstruction.
　急激な地価上昇が住宅再建に悪影響を及ぼさないように政府と自治体は監視を強めるべきだ。

Authorities must be cautious regarding the effect on land prices of increased demand ahead of a hike in the consumption tax planned for April.
来年４月の消費税増税をにらんだ駆け込み需要が地価に与える影響にも注意する必要がある。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 25, 2013)
（2013年3月25日01時12分 読売新聞）