円急騰 ドル離れ進む世界の投資資金

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Nov. 27, 2009)
Yen's surge doesn't deserve appreciation
円急騰　ドル離れ進む世界の投資資金（11月27日付・読売社説）

The yen's value has surged as selling pressure on the U.S. dollar has accelerated on foreign exchange markets. This situation could deal a devastating blow to the tottering Japanese economy.
　外国為替市場で、ドル離れが加速し、円が急騰した。足元が不安定な日本の景気回復に打撃を与えかねない事態だ。

The yen jumped to a 14-year high in the 86 yen level against the dollar Thursday in Tokyo. The dollar seems to be declining across the board against the euro and currencies of newly emerging economies.
　２６日の東京市場の円相場は、１ドル＝８６円台をつけ、約１４年ぶりの円高水準になった。ドルは、ユーロや新興国通貨などに対しても値下がりし、「ドル全面安」の状況を呈している。

Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii indicated the government would intervene in the currency market if exchange rates "move abnormally." U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke also warned against sharp falls of the dollar when he stated recently that the Fed would monitor changes in the value of the greenback.
　藤井財務相は、相場が異常に動いた場合には、円売り介入する考えを示唆した。米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）のバーナンキ議長も先日、「ドル相場を監視する」と発言し、急激なドル安を牽制(けんせい)したばかりだ。

As dollar-selling pressure appears unlikely to ease anytime soon, the appreciation of the yen and depreciation of the dollar likely will continue for some time. Monetary authorities in Japan and the United States, and other countries for that matter, must work together to moderate excessive fluctuations in currency markets by exploring the possibility of market interventions.
　ドル売り圧力は強く、円高・ドル安傾向が続くとみられる。日米などの通貨当局が、市場介入の可能性も探りながら連携し、過度な変動を抑える必要があろう。

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U.S. economic woes

The biggest cause of the falling dollar is the expectation that the United States' ultralow interest rate policy will remain in place as the U.S. economy continues to sputter.
　ドル安が進んでいる最大の要因は、米国の景気回復の足取りが重く、超低金利政策が長期化すると予想されているためだ。

The U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 10 percent. Nascent indications are that this could be a jobless recovery. Some observers have even suggested that U.S. authorities are tacitly tolerating moderate falls in the dollar to stimulate the economy through growth in exports.
　米国の失業率は１０％台に上昇し、まさに「雇用なき景気回復」だ。輸出拡大による景気テコ入れを狙い、米当局が本音では、緩やかなドル安を容認している、との観測も背景にある。00

A more worrying problem is that the so-called dollar carry trade--investors selling dollars with relatively low interest rates and instead investing in higher-yielding currencies--has kicked into gear.
　さらに厄介なのは、低金利のドルを売って、高金利通貨などに投資する「ドルキャリー取引」が活発化している問題だ。

The yen carry trade was commonplace from about 2004 through 2007. This time around, the dollar is shaking up money markets around the world.
　２００４～０７年ごろに目立った「円キャリー取引」に代わり、今回はドルが、世界のマネーの動きを揺さぶっている。

The price of gold has surged to a record high near 1,200 dollars an ounce in New York. This also is a sign that investors are discarding the greenback because gold is purchased as an alternative currency to the dollar. Crude oil and grain prices also have been creeping up as investment funds are diverted into these markets.
　金の価格が史上最高値の１トロイ・オンス＝１２００ドル近くに急騰した。ドルの「代替通貨」として買われており、ドル離れを示すものだ。投資資金の流入で、原油や穀物価格も上昇している。

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Exporters in peril

A sharp rise in the value of the yen and a plunge in the value of the dollar could spell disaster for the Japanese economy, which remains mired in deflation and has yet to get on the path to a full recovery.
　急激な円高・ドル安は、デフレに陥り、本格的な景気回復が遅れている日本経済にとって、特に重荷になるだろう。

Many exporting companies had assumed the yen would average about 90 yen per dollar throughout the second half of this fiscal year. If the yen continues to appreciate sharply against the dollar, these companies would take a battering. These exporters are a driving force of the nation's economy; any faltering by them could throttle the economy again.
　輸出企業の多くは、今年度下期に１ドル＝９０円程度の円相場を想定しており、急激な円高・ドル安が続けば、業績には大きな打撃だ。牽引役である企業の体力が弱れば、景気も腰折れしかねない。

Furthermore, the euro's surge could stall a full recovery of the European economy. Concern about economic bubbles is rising in newly emerging nations such as Brazil, which have been magnets for investment funds.
　ユーロの急騰は、欧州経済の本格回復にも悪影響を及ぼす。ドル離れした投資資金が流入しているブラジルなどの新興国では、バブル経済を懸念する声もある。

A fall in the dollar would throw the world economy into confusion. To ensure this does not come about, it is essential that the United States emerge from a jobless recovery and regain confidence in its currency. To this end, we consider it imperative that the United States implement effective measures to boost employment.
　結局、世界経済を混乱させるドル安に歯止めをかけるには、米国が「雇用なき景気回復」を脱却し、ドルの信認を取り戻すことが肝要だ。効果的な雇用対策の実施が急務といえよう。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 27, 2009)
（2009年11月27日01時33分 読売新聞）