北朝鮮新体制 「先軍政治」から転換できるか

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jul. 28, 2012)
Can Pyongyang change its 'military-first' doctrine?
北朝鮮新体制　「先軍政治」から転換できるか（7月27日付・読売社説）

Speculation is rife in the wake of the dismissal of the chief of North Korea's General Staff, who was widely seen as a mentor of that country's young leader, the ruling Workers' Party First Secretary Kim Jong Un.
　北朝鮮の若い指導者、金正恩・党第１書記の後見役と目されていた軍総参謀長の解任が、様々な臆測を呼んでいる。

A little more than three months since it launched its new leadership, uncertainty is heightening over Pyongyang's future course, meaning we must remain vigilant.
　新体制が本格的に始動して３か月余りたった北朝鮮の行方には不確実さが増しており、警戒が怠れない。

Two years ago, in the days of the late General Secretary Kim Jong Il, the now dismissed army chief was promoted to the post of vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the party's political bureau, or politburo, along with Kim Jong Un. The man was at the top of North Korea's military elite, concurrently serving as a member of the standing committee of the politburo.
　解任された総参謀長は、金正日総書記時代の２年前、正恩氏と一緒に党中央軍事委員会副委員長に抜擢(ばってき)され、政治局常務委員も務める軍のトップエリートだった。

In Kim Jong Il's funeral procession, the man walked in a leading position along with Kim Jong Un, and was seen a key figure supporting the new leader.
　総書記の葬儀では、正恩氏とともに霊きゅう車の先頭を歩き、新体制で正恩氏を支える軍部の要と見られていた。

The meeting of the politburo that decided on his removal from all duties said the decision was "due to his illness," but some analysts believe there may have been a power struggle behind the decision.
　すべての職務からの解任を決めた政治局会議は、「病気のため」と説明しているが、背景に権力闘争の存在を指摘する声もある。

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New leadership style eyed?

Kim Jong Un, who earlier became a four-star general, obtained the post of "marshal of the republic" immediately after the removal of the chief of the General Staff. Kim Jong Un's acquisition of the topmost military position is thought to be a move to demonstrate that he has now a complete grip on the military both in name and substance, presumably in a bid to display the stability of his regime.
　大将だった金正恩氏は、総参謀長の解任直後に「共和国元帥」に昇格した。名実ともに軍部を掌握したことを示し、政権の安定ぶりを誇示する狙いがあろう。

No other remarkable developments have been reported recently in the North Korean military, but Japan, together with the United States and South Korea, must continue to watch Pyongyang's moves.
　北朝鮮の軍に目立った動きは伝えられていないものの、日本は米韓両国と連携し、今後の動向を注視しなければならない。

While pledging to dedicate himself unconditionally to his father's teachings, Kim Jong Un has shown signs of a new style of governance different from that of his father in a number of ways.
　金正恩氏は、父親の「遺訓」を無条件で貫徹するとしながらも、目新しい統治スタイルを随所で示している。

In one high-profile example of this, North Korean media have disclosed that a young woman seen accompanying Kim Jong Un on various occasions is his wife.
　北朝鮮メディアが、正恩氏に随行していた若い女性を「夫人」と紹介し、結婚していた事実を明らかにしたのはその一例だ。

He also authorized the TV broadcast of a performance by an all-female band, some of its members in miniskirts, during which an ersatz Mickey Mouse character made an appearance.
　ミニスカートの女性楽団の公演を放映させ、ミッキーマウスに似たキャラクターが登場した。

Such gestures appear designed to emphasize differences from his father, who preferred an authoritarian and mysterious pattern of behavior. There might even be hints that he favors North Korea opening up a bit to the international community.
　権威主義的で神秘性を好んだ父親との違いを強調しようとしているかのように見える。孤立ではなく、国際社会と交流を深めたい意欲すら、うかがえる。

However, the question is whether these changes may lead eventually to a change from Pyongyang's traditional "songun," or military-first, doctrine.
　問題は、こうした変化が果たして軍事最優先の「先軍政治」の転換につながるのかどうかだ。

As Kim Jong Un himself stressed in a speech, North Korea's most urgent task is "solving food problems of the people."
　正恩氏が演説で強調した通り、最優先課題は「人民の食糧問題の解決」だ。

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Signs of economic reform

The task is to rebuild the North Korean economy in a way Kim Jong Un has pledged will mean people "no longer have to tighten their belts" and endure hunger.
空腹を我慢するために「ベルトを締めあげずにすむよう」経済を立て直すことにある。

He has issued instructions for steps to expand acreage of farmland and increase farming productivity. He has criticized the disorderly development and export of mineral resources that have been carried out in the name of "earning foreign currency." Apparently in connection with this, the new North Korean leader has come out with a policy of placing the management of his country's natural resources under the direct and integrated control of his Cabinet.
　正恩氏は耕地面積の拡大や生産性向上を指示した。「外貨稼ぎ」の名の下に行われている地下資源の無秩序な開発・輸出を批判し、資源を内閣が一元的に管理する方針を表明した。

These could be signs of Kim Jong Un's resolve to embark on sweeping reforms of his country's economy.
経済の抜本的改革に乗り出す予告とも受け取れる。

The reality North Korea faces is that sanctions imposed by the international community, which North Korea brought on itself because of its nuclear weapons and missile development programs, have narrowed its options for economic reconstruction.
　だが、核とミサイルの開発によって国際社会からの経済制裁を招き、経済再建の選択肢を自ら狭めてきたのが、北朝鮮の現実だ。

It seems that a transformation of North Korea's "military-first" politics into "politics placing top priority on the economy" would be extremely hard to realize.
　先軍政治から「経済最優先」への転換は容易ではあるまい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 27, 2012)
（2012年7月27日01時27分 読売新聞）