新興国通貨安 ＦＲＢは「出口戦略」を慎重に

The Yomiuri Shimbun January 31, 2014
FRB must carry out ‘exit strategy’ on quantitative easing prudently
新興国通貨安　ＦＲＢは「出口戦略」を慎重に（1月31日付・読売社説）

The currencies of emerging markets have been sharply dropping across the board, threatening to cause a global stock market crash.
　新興国通貨が軒並み急落し、世界同時株安の様相を呈している。

The stock market turmoil was triggered by the downscaling of U.S. quantitative monetary easing, and efforts must be made to prevent side effects of the turmoil from expanding while aiming to achieve market stabilization.
　発端は米国の量的緩和策の縮小である。副作用の拡大を防ぎ、市場安定を図ることが求められよう。

　米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が、金融危機後に導入した量的緩和策第３弾（ＱＥ３）をさらに縮小することを決めた。米国債などの毎月の購入規模を１００億ドル減らし、２月から６５０億ドル（約６・７兆円）とする。

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has decided to further shrink its Quantitative Easing program 3 (QE3)—the third of its kind, adopted in September 2012 in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
The FRB will cut its monthly purchases of bonds and other assets beginning in February by $10 billion to $65 billion (about ¥6.7 trillion).
The decision to reduce asset purchases has been made for two consecutive months since the FRB launched a QE3 exit strategy in December.
　昨年１２月、ＱＥ３の「出口戦略」に踏み出して以来、購入規模の減額決定は２か月連続である。

In a statement, the U.S. central bank notes that “growth in economic activity picked up in recent months” and “household spending and business fixed investment advanced more quickly in recent months.”
　ＦＲＢは声明で、「経済活動は上向いてきた。失業率が低下し、個人消費と企業投資の勢いが増した」と指摘した。

The Federal Reserve presumably deemed it proper to step forward in decreasing asset purchases as it has become more confident regarding business recovery.
　景気回復の動きに自信を深めたＦＲＢは、もう一歩踏み出すことが妥当と判断したのだろう。

The statement revealed anew that the FRB will “make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchase.” The QE3 is expected to conclude before the end of this year.
　声明は、今後について、一定のペースで規模縮小を進める方針を改めて明らかにした。年内にもＱＥ３の終了が見込まれる。

Of concern is the fact that investment money abundant in emerging economies due to the U.S. quantitative easing will flow out of those nations in search of higher returns in the United States, leading to selling of their currencies.
　ただ、懸念されるのは、新興国にあふれていた「緩和マネー」が、ＱＥ３縮小とともに引き揚げられて米国などに逆流し、新興国通貨が売られていることだ。

Steps to defend currencies

The value of Argentina’s currency, the peso, plunged last week. In a chain reaction, the currency values of Turkey, Brazil, India and Indonesia also depreciated.
　先週、アルゼンチン通貨ペソが急落した。それが連鎖し、トルコ、ブラジル、インド、インドネシアなどの通貨も下落している。

In an effort to defend their currencies, the central banks of Turkey and India raised key interest rates to prevent investment money from fleeing their borders. South Africa followed suit by increasing interest rates for the first time in 5½ years.
　自国通貨を防衛しようと、トルコとインドの中央銀行が政策金利を引き上げ、投資マネーの引き留めを狙ったのに続き、南アフリカも約５年半ぶりに利上げした。

Owing to these emergency measures, monetary uncertainty seems to have abated, but the tendency for currencies of emerging economies to be sold remains, thus leaving optimism unwarranted.
　こうした緊急策によって、ひとまず通貨安は一服した模様だが、新興国通貨が売られやすい状況は続いており、楽観は禁物だ。

Since the financial crisis, emerging economies have served as a driving force for the world economy, backed by their high economic growth.
　金融危機後、成長著しい新興国は世界経済を牽引(けんいん)してきた。

However, there is a strong sense of wariness toward countries like Argentina, which has been suffering from high prices and current account deficits due to a slowdown in its economy. There is no denying that such countries have been targeted by market investors.
だが、最近は景気が減速し、物価高や経常赤字にも苦しむアルゼンチンなどへの警戒感は強い。市場に狙い撃ちされている面が否めない。

Emerging economies face a dilemma in that if they raise rates to defend their currencies, it will lead to a business slowdown.
　新興国が通貨防衛のために利上げすれば、かえって景気を冷やすというジレンマも抱える。

Drops in stock prices have not ceased in New York, Tokyo and elsewhere likely out of a sense of uncertainty over emerging economies, which has been rattling the markets.
　ニューヨークや東京、アジアなどの株価下落が止まらないのも、新興国経済への不安感が市場を揺るがしているからだろう。

Future focus will be on the pace at which the FRB will promote an exit strategy to phase out quantitative easing. Janet Yellen, who will replace Ben Bernanke as FRB chairman Saturday, will bear a heavy responsibility in this regard.
　今後の焦点は、ＦＲＢが出口戦略を進めるペースだ。バーナンキ議長の後任として１日に就任するイエレン新議長の責任は重い。

The exit strategy must be implemented meticulously so that rapid shrinkage of monetary easing does not cause confusion in global stock and exchange markets. To this end, having a “dialogue with markets” will be an indispensable step.
　出口戦略は、急ピッチな緩和縮小で世界の株式・為替市場の混乱を招かないよう、慎重な舵(かじ)取りが欠かせない。「市場との対話」を工夫してもらいたい

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 31, 2014)
（2014年1月31日01時18分 読売新聞）