米オバマ外交 問われる超大国の積極的関与

The Yomiuri Shimbun January 9, 2014
U.S. engagement essential for bringing peace, stability to global hot spots
米オバマ外交　問われる超大国の積極的関与（1月9日付・読売社説）

　◆「アジア重視」具体化が課題だ

Stability in the international order is facing challenges in various regions, such as the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East. To maintain peace and stability, a policy of forward engagement in these regions by the United States, the only superpower, is still essential.
　アジア太平洋地域や中東などで、国際秩序の流動化が進んでいる。平和と安定を維持するには、依然、唯一の超大国である米国による各地域への積極的な関与が欠かせない。

However, U.S. President Barack Obama’s plan to focus more on Asia—a strategic pivot of U.S. diplomacy and security policy more toward the Asia-Pacific region—has moved by fits and starts while the Obama administration is preoccupied with handling Middle East affairs.
　しかし、外交・安全保障政策の軸足をアジア太平洋に移すというオバマ米大統領の「アジア重視」路線は、中東政策に足を取られ、順調に進んでいない。

With his weak domestic political foundation, can Obama reshape his foreign policy? Various difficult issues await him ahead of his trip to several Asian countries scheduled for April.
　国内の政治基盤が弱いオバマ氏が、外交を立て直せるか。４月に予定されるアジア歴訪に向け、難題が待ち構えている。

Stumbling in Syria policy
　◆シリア政策でつまずく

The Obama administration’s diplomatic limbo is epitomized by his Syria policy.
　オバマ外交の迷走ぶりを露呈したのが、シリア政策だ。

The civil war in Syria has killed at least 100,000 people. Last summer, Obama announced a plan to launch a military strike against Syria, on the grounds that the administration of President Bashar Assad had used chemical weapons. At the same time, he took the extremely unusual step of asking Congress to approve the military strike. His decision to have Congress share the burden of launching an attack on Syria gave his presidential prestige a black eye.
　１０万人もの死者を出しているシリア内戦を巡り、オバマ氏は昨夏、アサド政権が化学兵器を使用したとして武力攻撃を表明した。同時に、攻撃の承認を議会に求めたのは極めて異例な措置だ。議会に攻撃の責任分担を促したことは大統領の威信低下にもつながった。

However, the U.S. pressure did produce a result. Before Congress was to vote on a resolution to approve the military attack, the Assad administration announced it would abandon its chemical weapons arsenal. The military strike was averted, and Assad was allowed to stay in power.
　米国の圧力が奏功した面もあり、議会が決議を行う前に、アサド政権は化学兵器の放棄に同意した。攻撃には至らず、政権の存続は容認された。

Neighboring countries of Syria that oppose the Assad administration, and antigovernment forces in Syria upbraided Obama over this “change of heart,” feeding distrust of the Obama administration. Obama himself probably thinks he made a miscalculation on this issue.
　アサド政権に反発する周辺諸国や国内の反政府勢力は、オバマ氏の態度を「変心」と見なし、不信感を募らせた。オバマ氏にも誤算だったのではないか。

On the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, Obama took the bold step of holding direct dialogue with new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. The United States has since started negotiations with Iran, together with several other countries concerned, on the Iran nuclear issue. However, the future direction of these negotiations remains unclear because strong opposition to them remains within the U.S. Congress.
　イランの核問題では、オバマ氏はイラン大統領との直接対話に踏み切り、米国は関係国と共にイランとの核交渉を開始した。だが、米議会内に反対論が強く、交渉の行方は不透明になっている。

Most of the U.S. troops dispatched to Afghanistan are scheduled to withdraw from that country by the end of this year. As U.S. forces have already pulled out of Iraq, the United States is expected to put a tentative end to its war on terrorism, which has lasted for more than a decade since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.
　アフガニスタンに派遣されている米軍は、今年末をめどに大部分が撤収する。イラクの米軍は撤収済みであり、２００１年の米同時テロ以来、十数年にわたる「テロとの戦い」には、一応の終止符が打たれる見通しだ。

War fatigue in U.S. society has generated a tendency among the public to dislike U.S. intervention and engagement in other countries’ affairs. This tendency to focus on domestic issues has also negatively affected Obama’s foreign policy.
　米社会では「戦争疲れ」のため、他国への介入や関与を嫌う傾向が顕著になっている。この米国民の「内向き志向」もオバマ外交に影を落としている。

Democrats vs Republicans
　◆党派対立が懸念される

Obama is being forced to pay careful consideration to Congress, since his administration cannot make policy decisions as it would like because the ruling Democratic Party maintains a majority in the Senate but the Republican Party controls the House of Representatives.
　オバマ氏が議会への目配りを強いられるのは、与党の民主党が上院では過半数を維持するものの、下院は共和党に支配され、思うように政策決定できないからだ。

The Republican Party has continuously been on the offensive against the administration. Last year, the party thoroughly blocked the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, dubbed Obamacare, which Obama put into effect during his first term in office, resisting it even to the point of causing a partial shutdown of government functions in October.
　共和党は、政府に攻勢をかけ続けている。昨年は、大統領が１期目に成立させた医療保険改革（オバマケア）の実施を徹底的に妨害し、１０月には政府機関の一部停止まで引き起こした。

Obama’s public approval rating briefly fell below 40 percent, his lowest ever.
　オバマ氏の支持率は一時、４０％を切り、過去最低となった。

With a congressional midterm election set for November, it is certain that the Republicans will intensify their confrontational stance even further. Congressional management will be made more difficult for Obama. One cause for concern is that Obama’s diplomatic courses of action may be narrowed down.
　今年１１月には、議会の中間選挙を控えており、共和党がより対決色を強めるのは確実だ。オバマ氏の議会運営は厳しいものとなろう。外交の選択肢が狭められることが懸念される。

Yet tension is only escalating in the Asia-Pacific region as China attempts to change the status quo by force. The situation in North Korea is also becoming ever more uncertain. We hope Obama will seriously tackle his diplomatic policy with emphasis placed on Asia.
　だが、アジア太平洋では、中国が力による現状変更を試み、地域の緊張は高まる一方だ。北朝鮮情勢も不透明感を増している。オバマ氏にはアジア重視路線に本腰を入れて取り組んでもらいたい。

Deterrence with allies
　◆同盟国と共に抑止策を

The challenges the United States must tackle are obvious.
　米国が取り組むべき課題は明白だ。

One, in cooperation with its friends and allies in the region, is to hold back China’s expansionism, which deviates from international norms, as seen in its unilateral announcement of an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea.
東シナ海における一方的な防空識別圏設定で見られたような国際常識を逸脱した中国の膨張主義を、地域の同盟国や友好国と共に抑止することである。

The Obama administration has already worked out plans for boosting its navy ships in the Asia-Pacific region from the current 50 percent of the total U.S. fleet to 60 percent by 2020. The administration also plans to newly dispatch an additional 800 army troops to South Korea to boost its forces stationed there.
　オバマ政権は既に、アジア太平洋で活動する米海軍艦船を、２０年までに全体の５割から６割に引き上げる構想を打ち出している。韓国には、８００人規模の陸軍部隊を新たに派遣し、在韓米軍を増強するという。

In the economic field, negotiations on the conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership accord, which will create a new free trade zone in the Asia-Pacific region with the United States and Japan taking the central roles, have entered the final stage.
　経済分野では、米国と日本が中心となって、アジア太平洋地域の新たな自由貿易圏となる環太平洋経済連携協定（ＴＰＰ）の交渉が大詰めを迎えている。

If the military plans or the trade accord, or both, become reality, they will have a strong restraining effect on China’s moves to seek hegemony in the region.
　いずれも実現すれば、中国の覇権を求める動きに対する強い牽制(けんせい)効果を持とう。

On the other hand, China’s President Xi Jinping told Obama, “The vast Pacific Ocean has enough space for two large countries like the United States and China,” calling for forging a new type of great-power relationship.
　一方、中国の習近平国家主席は、オバマ氏に「広大な太平洋には両大国を受け入れる十分な空間がある」と述べ、「新しいタイプの大国関係」の構築を求めた。

Xi’s remarks, made during their summit talks in June, are thought to indicate a scheme for dividing the Asia-Pacific region in two, and having the United States effectively approve the expansion of China’s sphere of influence in the western Pacific.
　アジア太平洋を二つに分割し、西太平洋における中国の勢力圏の拡大を米国に認めさせる構想と見られている。

It is worrisome that certain voices within the U.S. government seem to call for the country to side with China’s scheme of forging a new type of relationship between the two. Such calls are probably made in consideration of the two countries’ mutual economic dependence.
　気がかりなのは、米政府内に「新たな大国関係」に同調するかのような声があることだ。中国との経済面での相互依存に配慮しているからだろう。

Few countries—let alone U.S. allies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines—would be willing to accept a new international order led by China in place of the United States.
　日本や韓国、オーストラリア、フィリピンなどの同盟国はもとより、アジアで、米国の代わりに中国が主導する秩序を受け入れたい国はほとんどあるまい。

We hope Washington makes a cautious response.
米国には慎重な対応を望みたい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 9, 2014)
（2014年1月9日01時57分 読売新聞）