緊急経済対策 景気の底割れを防ぐ効果は

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Dec. 9, 2009)
Efficacy of stimulus measures questionable
緊急経済対策　景気の底割れを防ぐ効果は（12月9日付・読売社説）

The economic pump-priming measures agreed upon by the government and Cabinet on Tuesday seem sizable if judged only on the basis of the amounts involved, but whether we can expect economic effects equivalent to the measures' face value remains an open question.
　数字だけを見れば大型の景気対策だが、額面通りの景気刺激効果を期待していいのだろうか。

The emergency economic package lays out 7.2 trillion yen in spending and is predicted to have a ripple effect of more than 24 trillion yen in terms of extending credit to small and medium-sized companies, among other effects.
　政府は８日、財政支出の「真水」で７兆円、融資枠などを含む事業規模で２４兆円超の緊急経済対策を決めた。

Japan's economic recovery has been erratic and severe employment conditions and deflation remain. There is concern that the economy might stall in the first half of next year.
　厳しい雇用情勢とデフレで景気回復の足取りは弱い。来年前半にも腰折れする恐れもある。

Nonetheless, we welcome the fact that the government and the Bank of Japan have become closely aligned in their pursuit of economic stimulus measures and an easy-money policy.
　ともかく政府と日銀が、景気対策と金融緩和で足並みをそろえたことは歓迎できよう。

Adoption of the economic measures was delayed due the People's New Party's demand for even more government spending, but in the end the amount added to the initially envisaged figure was very small. The market is increasingly concerned by the government's incoherent policy decisions. The administration of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama must compile the fiscal 2010 budget by the end of this year to reassure the market.
　だが、対策の決定が国民新党の増額要求で遅れた揚げ句、上積みはわずかだった。市場は政策決定の迷走に懸念を強めている。来年度予算を年内に着実に編成し、市場を安心させねばならない。

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Multi-pronged approach

The stimulus package aims to prop up the economy by pursuing six policy goals including improving employment conditions, boosting consumption by facilitating the purchase of environmentally friendly products, financing small and midsize firms, and supporting regional economies. The employment measures include expanding eligibility for coverage under the employment adjustment subsidy that prevents dismissal of employees by providing companies with leave allowances from the government, in addition to job-placement assistance for young people fresh out of school.
　対策は雇用、環境、景気、地方支援など６本柱で景気の下支えを目指す。雇用では、休業手当を企業に支給して解雇を防ぐ雇用調整助成金の対象拡大や、新卒者の就職支援などを盛り込んだ。

The environmental measures aim at alleviating insufficient domestic demand by facilitating the purchase of eco-friendly cars and energy-saving home electrical appliances, and by introducing an eco-point program for home construction.
　環境は、エコカーと省エネ家電に、新たに住宅を加えた「エコ消費３本柱」への購入支援をテコに国内の需要不足の改善を狙う。

The government will also add a total of 10 trillion yen to credit guarantees and emergency lending programs to help financing of small and midsize companies.
　中小企業の資金繰りを助けるため、信用保証と緊急融資の枠も、計１０兆円積み増す。

These programs are expected to have some effect since they have a good track record from use on previous occasions. However, most of them are expansions or extensions of past programs and break no new ground. They should proceed under careful, constant scrutiny since some of them have already become ineffective.
　これらは、これまでの景気対策で実績があり、一定の効果は期待できよう。ただし、延長や拡充が中心で新味に乏しい。すでに効き目が薄れている可能性もあり、効果のほどを点検しながら取り組みを進めなければならない。

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Redirecting funds

The government expenditure backing those programs is already padded a little. Of its financial resources, about 3 trillion yen is money saved from freezing some of the economic programs in the first supplementary budget, meaning that the money cut from the previous budget is just being redirected into a new one.
　裏付けとなる財政支出は水増し気味だ。財源のうち３兆円弱は第１次補正予算の凍結分で、削った予算が戻るに過ぎない。

The latest package includes some public works projects such as those promoting the greening of cities, repairing old bridges and putting power lines underground. Though the government pruned public works projects, which would have had a quick effect in boosting the economy, from the first extra budget, it now is trying to put them back into the second supplementary budget. Wasn't this just a waste of time?
　今回、公共事業として、都市の緑化、橋の補修、電線地中化などが盛り込まれた。だが、景気対策に即効性が期待できる公共事業を第１次補正から一度削り、今度は戻すのでは、その間の時間が無駄になっただけではないか。

This could be the price the Democratic Party of Japan-led government has to pay for sticking to its election campaign pledge to shift spending "from concrete to human resources."
　「コンクリートから人へ」などという選挙スローガンにこだわったツケといえよう。

Unless the public works projects, which will be allocated in the latest budget, are highly cost-efficient, the government will be criticized for freezing part of the first supplementary budget when its Cabinet was launched.
　今回の予算再配分先がよほど効率の高い事業でないと、「内閣発足直後の凍結作業は何だったのか」という批判も出かねない。

A total of 3.5 trillion yen is provided to help local economies, but 3 trillion yen of it will be used to make up for a decrease in central government tax revenues allocated to local governments, which were cut as a result of reduced central government tax revenues.
　総額３・５兆円に及ぶ地方支援にしても、３兆円は国の税収減に応じて目減りする地方交付税の穴埋めに充てられる。

This means that local governments will not receive money in addition to the initially envisaged budgets.
　地方にすれば、当初予算に上積みしてもらえるわけではない。

The government should pay consideration to employment and social welfare, and put priority on policy measures effective in stimulating the economy in its compiling of the fiscal 2010 budget, which has entered a crucial phase.
　ヤマ場にさしかかった来年度予算の編成では、雇用と福祉に目配りし、景気刺激に役立つ施策に重点を置くべきである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 9, 2009)
（2009年12月9日01時33分 読売新聞）