習近平体制発足 膨張中国と向き合う戦略築け

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Nov. 17, 2012)
Japan needs sound strategy to deal with Xi administration
習近平体制発足　膨張中国と向き合う戦略築け（11月16日付・読売社説）

The Chinese Communist Party held the first plenary session of the 18th Central Committee on Thursday and made enormous changes to its leadership. The session marked the beginning of the Xi Jinping regime that will steer China through the next decade.
　中国共産党の中央委員会総会が開かれ、指導部が大幅に交代した。今後１０年、中国のかじを取る習近平体制の始動だ。

Xi, the new party general secretary, held a press conference on the day. "Our responsibility is to unite and lead people of the entire party and of all ethnic groups around the country while...continuing to work for realizing the great revival of the Chinese nation in order to let the Chinese nation stand more firmly and powerfully among all nations around the world," he said.
　総書記に選ばれた習近平国家副主席は記者会見で、「我々の責任は引き続き中華民族の偉大な復興のために努力奮闘し、中華民族を世界の民族の中でさらに力強く自立させることである」と語った。

In line with Xi's words, it seems evident that China will continue to advance along its path of reform and opening-up while maintaining a political system dominated by a single party. China will also seek to further expand its economic and military might, aiming at becoming a superpower on par with the United States. Its policy of expansion both militarily and economically will not change anytime soon.
　その言葉通り、習政権は一党独裁を堅持しながら改革・開放を進め、米国と並ぶ超大国を目指して経済力と軍事力の一層の強大化を図るのだろう。軍事・経済の「膨張路線」は当面変わるまい。

===

Can Xi exercise leadership?

Xi, the son of a former vice premier, is known as the leader of the so-called princelings, the influential offspring of high-ranking party officials. However, with his elders still holding sway in the party, it remains unclear to what extent he can exercise his leadership.
　元副首相を父に持つ習氏は、高級幹部の子女グループ「太子党」の代表だが、党長老の影響力が残る中、どこまで指導力を発揮できるかは不透明と言える。

Noteworthy in the latest leadership appointments is that Hu Jintao, who led China for 10 years during his two terms, not only vacated the general secretary post but also stepped down as chairman of the Central Military Commission, handing over both posts to Xi.
　今回の人事で注目されるのは、これまで２期１０年、政権を率いてきた胡錦濤氏が総書記だけでなく軍を握る中央軍事委員会主席も退任して、習氏に譲ったことだ。

When Jiang Zemin stepped aside to make way for Hu as party leader, he remained military chief for nearly two more years. By giving up both posts, Hu likely is trying to end the dual-rule framework that has complicated decision-making by top leaders.
　総書記退任後も２年近く軍事委主席にとどまった江沢民元総書記と異なる道を選ぶことで、胡氏には、最高指導部の意思決定を複雑化させてきた二元支配を終わらせる狙いがあるのだろう。

Yet, Hu appears to have retained influence by promoting senior military leaders close to him as vice chairmen of the commission before the party's National Congress. He also placed members of his faction in the Politburo. These actions point to a desire by Hu to retain power in the party leadership even after he retires from his leadership posts.
　ただ、胡氏は自らに近い軍幹部２人を党大会前に軍事委副主席に昇格させたほか、政治局にも自派閥の人材を配置した。退任後も自らの影響力を党指導部に残すために打った布石に違いない。

This becomes even more clear considering that Hu's "scientific development concept," which aims to engineer balanced, sustainable development, was promoted to an official guiding socio-economic ideology at the congress, and is now enshrined in the party's charter.
　調和のとれた持続可能な発展を目指す胡氏の「科学的発展観」が党大会で行動指針に格上げされ、党規約に盛り込まれたのもその証左である。

Also, the Politburo Standing Committee was reduced from nine members to seven. More than the desires of Xi, the line-up of the committee reflects a power struggle between Jiang and Hu.
　政治局常務委員は従来の９人から７人に削減された。顔ぶれを見ると、習氏の意向より江氏と胡氏の派閥闘争を反映した人事だ。

===

Taming social problems urgent

Xi is scheduled to become president next spring and with that will attain China's leadership trifecta--party, state and military.
　習氏は来春、国家主席に就任し、党、国家、軍の３権を掌握する。

The top priority of the Xi administration is likely to be easing the social strains that have been intensifying in the nation. China needs to get serious about dealing with expanding income and other disparities, corruption in high-ranking officials, and environmental destruction--all problems that have accompanied rapid economic growth.
習政権にとって最優先課題は、深刻化している社会のひずみの克服である。急成長に伴う格差の拡大や幹部の腐敗、環境破壊に、真摯(しんし)に対策を講じる必要がある。

The boycott against Japanese goods being staged in protest of Japan's nationalization of some of the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture has impacted not only the Japanese economy but also Chinese businesses. The Xi administration should immediately exert self-restraint regarding coercive diplomatic tactics.
　中国が尖閣諸島の国有化に反発して始めた日本製品不買運動は日本経済だけでなく、中国経済にも打撃を与えた。習政権は威圧外交を速やかに自制すべきだ。

How should the Japanese government grapple with China's policy of military and economic expansion? We believe a calm grasp of the situation is essential to consolidate strategy toward China.
　日本政府は膨張中国と、どう向き合うのか。腰を据えて対中戦略を固めることが肝要である。

Through a multipronged approach via the East Asia Summit and other frameworks, Japan should step up its efforts to engage China to ensure it will fulfill the international responsibility that comes with national power.
　東アジア首脳会議などの枠組みを重層的に利用し、中国が国力に見合った国際的責任を果たすよう働きかけを強めねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 16, 2012)
（2012年11月16日01時38分 読売新聞）