試練の世界経済 欧州危機の収束はまだ途上だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jan. 5, 2013)
Deeper EU integration needed as European crisis drags on
試練の世界経済　欧州危機の収束はまだ途上だ（1月4日付・読売社説）

　◆財政再建緩めずに「統合深化」を◆

Europe's protracted fiscal and financial crises appear to have escaped their worst phases, but there is no knowing what lies ahead. Indications are that difficult times for the world economy will most likely continue this year as well.
　長期化している欧州の財政・金融危機は、最悪期を脱したかのように見えるが、先行きは不透明である。世界経済の試練が今年も続くだろう。

The European crisis must be overcome by every possible means, to enable the global economy to get on track for a full-fledged recovery.
　欧州危機を封じ込め、本格的な景気回復を実現しなければならない。

The World Economic Outlook released last autumn by the International Monetary Fund reduced its world growth forecast for 2013 to 3.6 percent after inflation, and it seems the pace of the recovery in the world economy will remain sluggish.
　国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）は昨秋、２０１３年の世界経済見通しを実質３・６％成長に下方修正した。緩慢な回復にとどまりそうだ。

The biggest factor behind this is that growth in the eurozone will likely be a meager 0.2 percent from the year before, meaning growth will be close to zero. Some observers even say Europe's growth may fall below zero for the second consecutive year.
　最大の要因は、ユーロ圏が前年比０・２％増とほぼゼロ成長に低迷することだ。２年連続でマイナス成長に陥る観測すらある。

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Break the negative chain
　◆負の連鎖を断ち切れ◆

The European crisis, which has lasted for more than three years, has had a harmful influence on the economies of Japan, the United States and other countries, while slowing growth in newly emerging economies, too, as shown by conspicuous declines in China's exports to Europe.
　３年以上続く欧州危機は、米国や日本経済に悪影響を及ぼし、中国の欧州向け輸出が減少するなど新興国経済も減速させた。

As long as these negative chain reactions continue, there can be no prospects for the world economy to regain its buoyancy.
　こうした「負の連鎖」を断ち切らない限り、世界経済が再浮上する展望は開けない。

It was a welcome development that the European Central Bank and the European Union beefed up steps, though belatedly, to contain the crisis from last autumn through the year-end.
　欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）と欧州連合（ＥＵ）が昨秋から年末にかけ、遅ればせながら、危機封じ込め策を強化したのは前進だ。

The ECB has decided to employ the extraordinary measure of purchasing government bonds of crisis-stricken countries without limitations, in addition to a bold monetary easing policy.
　ＥＣＢは大胆な金融緩和策に加えて、危機国の国債を無制限に買い取るという異例の方針を決めた。

As a permanent safety net for extending assistance to crisis-ridden nations, the European Stabilization Mechanism has been launched. On top of this, an additional bailout package for Greece has also been put in place.
　危機国支援の恒久的な安全網として欧州安定メカニズム（ＥＳＭ）も発足した。ギリシャに対する追加支援も実施された。

It is highly commendable that Europe's credit unrest has eased and the market has begun to regain stability.
　信用不安が和らぎ、市場が落ち着いてきたことは評価できる。

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Still many things to do

Optimism that the eurozone crises have ended, however, should not be allowed.
　だが、「ユーロ危機は終わった」と楽観するのは禁物だ。

For one thing, Greece has yet to emerge from a serious recession. The path to slashing its government debts as planned is very treacherous.
　ギリシャは深刻な景気後退から抜け出せない。計画通りに政府債務を削減する道は険しい。

In Spain, the bursting of a property bubble has caused banks to suffer from a mountain of nonperforming loans, while government finances have kept deteriorating. It is problematic that the Spanish government is still hesitant about whether to officially request assistance from the EU.
　スペインでも、不動産バブル崩壊で銀行が不良債権を抱え、国家財政は悪化した。ＥＵへの支援要請を躊躇(ちゅうちょ)しているのは問題だ。

As Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti has expressed his intention to step down, a general election scheduled for February may be turbulent.
　イタリアで財政再建を主導してきたモンティ首相が辞意を表明したため、２月に実施される総選挙も波乱要素になりうる。

Under the circumstances, every European country must avoid the folly of easing measures to cope with the crisis. In order not to rekindle the crisis, steady, continuous efforts should be made to rebuild government finances. At the same time, policies should be implemented to place priority on reinvigorating business activities by making the most of the framework for extending assistance to countries in trouble.
　各国がここで対応を緩めるのは愚策だ。危機が再燃しないよう、財政再建を着実に進め、支援の枠組みを活用するとともに、景気を重視する政策も肝要である。

Efforts to deepen the integration of the eurozone must continue in order to solve its structural problem of having a single currency but different fiscal policies among member countries.
　「通貨は一つで財政はバラバラ」という構造問題の解決へ、ユーロ圏は「統合深化」の取り組みを足踏みさせてはならない。

A policy to unify banking supervision in the region has been decided. However, concrete measures for fiscal integration have been postponed. The key to the issue is what Germany decides.
　域内の銀行監督を一元化する方針は決まったが、財政統合の具体策は先送りされている。カギを握るのは大国ドイツの決断だ。

Within the European economic giant, there is strong opposition to giving further assistance to southern European nations struggling with fiscal crises and fiscal integration.
　ドイツでは、財政危機に陥った南欧諸国への一層の支援や財政統合に反対論が根強い。

Germany's general election in autumn this year will be a focal point for whether the eurozone can deepen its integration.
　ユーロ圏が統合深化にさらに踏み込めるかどうかは、今秋のドイツの総選挙が焦点になる。

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Fiscal cliff avoided

For U.S. President Barack Obama, whose second term in office is to start soon, fiscal rehabilitation and economic revitalization will continue to be weighty pending issues.
　２期目がスタートするオバマ米大統領にとって、引き続き、財政再建と経済再生が重い課題だ。

　◆回避された米財政の崖◆

Negotiations between Obama and congressional leaders to avoid the fiscal cliff, a term describing the expiration of major tax cuts and large automatic spending cuts, went into the New Year. However, they finally reached an agreement on an extension of tax cuts for middle-class earners and a tax increase for the rich.
　大型減税失効と予算の強制削減が重なる「財政の崖」を巡る大統領と議会の協議は、越年した末、中間所得層の減税延長や富裕層増税などでようやく決着した。

Avoiding falling off the cliff brought relief to financial markets. However, there are many issues still pending, such as drastic fiscal rehabilitation measures and an increase in the U.S. debt ceiling--the quota for issuing U.S. government bonds.
　崖からの転落を土壇場で回避できたことは市場に安心感を与えたが、抜本的な財政再建策や米国債発行枠（債務上限）引き上げなど先送りされた課題も多い。

As the confrontation between Obama and Congress is still dragging on, there will probably be twists and turns ahead.
　大統領と議会の対立は尾を引いており、波乱含みである。

The U.S. economy has been on a moderate recovery path with the housing market picking up. However, the unemployment rate is still hovering at a high level of just under 8 percent, and thus it is still difficult to find jobs.
　米国経済は住宅市場が好転し、緩やかに持ち直しつつあるとはいえ、失業率は８％弱に高止まりして雇用情勢は厳しい。

In a rare move, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board has decided to keep interest rates near zero until the jobless rate is stabilized at 6.5 percent or below. We hope the U.S. government and the FRB will strengthen their cooperation to improve employment and realize a powerful U.S. economy.
　米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）は、失業率が６・５％程度に安定するまで、ゼロ金利政策を継続する異例の金融緩和策を決めた。政府とＦＲＢが一段と連携を強化し、雇用改善と力強い米国経済を実現してもらいたい。

Expectations are running high for the "shale gas revolution," development of the nontraditional natural gas that has been going on in North America. When shale gas is used on a regular basis, the U.S. manufacturing industry likely will revive, making U.S. industries more competitive.
　北米で非在来型天然ガスの開発が進む「シェールガス革命」への期待が高まっている。本格的に普及すれば米製造業が復活し、産業競争力の強化につながろう。

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Stabilizing Japan-China relations
　◆日中関係安定が重要◆

In China, where real economic growth for 2012 is suspected to have gone below the 8 percent target linked to sustaining sufficient employment levels, the pace for economic recovery is slow. Economic growth in China this year is expected to stay around 8 percent.
　１２年の実質経済成長率が、雇用維持に重要な目安の８％を割ったとみられる中国では、景気回復の足取りが鈍い。今年の成長も８％程度にとどまりそうだ。

After the Lehman Brothers shock in autumn 2008, the Chinese government realized a V-shaped recovery leveraged by large-scale economic stimulus measures, serving as a locomotive for the global economy.
　中国政府は０８年秋のリーマン・ショック後、大型景気対策をテコにＶ字回復を実現し、世界を牽引(けんいん)した。

However, there are no signs that China will come up with similar large-scale economic measures this time.
だが、中国が今、同じような対策を打つ気配はみえない。

A key issue for China is transition from an economy excessively dependent on exports to one led by domestic demand such as individual consumption.
　中国の懸案は、過度に輸出に依存する経済から、個人消費など内需主導型経済への転換だ。

If Japan-China relations get chillier, due to intensification of the confrontation between the two countries over the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, Japanese companies will stop investing in China, an outcome that would also seriously affect the Chinese economy. Chinese leaders must recognize anew the importance of stabilizing bilateral relations.
　尖閣諸島を巡る日本との対立激化で日中関係が冷え込めば、日本企業による中国投資にブレーキがかかり、中国経済にも響く。両国関係を安定させる重要性を中国当局は再認識すべきである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 4, 2013)
（2013年1月4日01時20分 読売新聞）