金融市場大荒れ 中国発の不安連鎖を断ち切れ

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Break chain of anxiety triggered by China causing turmoil in global markets
金融市場大荒れ　中国発の不安連鎖を断ち切れ

Turmoil in the global financial markets, caused by uncertainty regarding the Chinese economy, has been continuing.
　中国経済への不信を震源とする世界の金融市場の動揺が続いている。

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the benchmark Nikkei average briefly tumbled below 17,000 points. It later firmed up to a certain degree, but the Nikkei average has dropped as much as 1,800 points since the beginning of January.
　東京市場の日経平均株価は一時、１万７０００円を割り込んだ。その後は、やや持ち直したが、年明け以降の株価の下げ幅は１８００円にも達した。

The plunge in Tokyo stock prices was triggered by the 15 percent drop in the Shanghai stock market since the beginning of this year. Fluctuations of stock prices have also continued in major stock markets in the United States, Europe and other countries in Asia.
　中国・上海市場が年初来、１５％も下落したことが引き金となった。欧米、アジアの主要市場でも株価の乱高下が止まらない。

The turmoil has been partly caused by investment money having nowhere to go in markets plagued by fear over the stagnation of China’s economic growth and the plummeting value of the yuan.
　中国経済の成長鈍化と、通貨・人民元の下落への不安感が市場を覆い、投資マネーが行き場を失ったことが混乱を招いている。

The decline of stock prices has also been spurred by oil-producing countries selling huge amounts of stock in markets around the world as the fall of crude oil prices shows no sign of bottoming out.
　原油相場の下落に歯止めがかからない中、産油国が各国市場で保有株を大量に売却したことも株安に拍車をかけている。

On the New York market, the crude oil price briefly dropped to the $29 range per barrel, the lowest level in 12 years. But still no signs of a rebound are evident.
　米ニューヨーク市場では、原油が一時、１バレル＝２９ドル台まで下がり、１２年ぶりの安値をつけた。反発のきっかけも見えない。

This chain of anxiety has to be broken to calm down the markets. Cooperation among the monetary authorities of all countries is essential, but China’s responsibility is particularly grave.
　不安の連鎖を断ち切り、市場の沈静化を図る必要がある。各国金融当局の協調が大切だが、とりわけ中国の責任は重大である。

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government is aiming at a “new normal” economy, meaning the transition of the Chinese economy from investment-based growth to stable, consumption-led growth. But it has not yet clarified the path to achieve this.
　習近平政権は、投資中心の成長から消費主導の安定成長に移行する「新常態」（ニューノーマル）を目指しているが、その道筋は明確になっていない。

Map out path

The Chinese government should take measures to prevent a rapid downturn of the current economy, and formulate plans to reform state enterprises and deal with nonperforming loans at regional financial institutions. Beijing should specify a road map for such policy measures.
　当面の景気の急減速を防ぐ手立てを講じる。さらに、国有企業改革や地域金融機関の不良債権処理などを具体化する。こうした政策の工程表を明示すべきだ。

It also must try to communicate carefully with markets, changing its makeshift actions over systems to suspend trading and restrict stock transactions when a market experiences sudden change.
　相場急変時の取引停止制度や株の売却規制をめぐる場当たり的な対応を改め、市場と丁寧に対話する努力も欠かせない。

The United States ended its zero-interest policy in December, and is eyeing the possibility of raising interest rates further. It must consider carefully when interest rates should be raised again, and how much the hike should be, after analyzing what effect the country’s monetary policy will have on the global market.
　米国は昨年１２月、ゼロ金利政策を解除し、一段の利上げを視野に入れる。自国の金融政策が国際市場にどう波及するかを分析し、次の利上げ時期や上げ幅を慎重に検討することが求められる。

Meanwhile, it is important for Japan to prevent the current turmoil in its domestic market from having a negative effect on the real economy.
　日本は、現在の国内市場の動揺が実体経済に悪影響を及ぼさないようにすることが重要だ。

Companies have logged record-level earnings, and the Japanese economy is making a mild recovery. The falling crude oil prices have benefits for corporate activities and household economies. We don’t have to be too pessimistic about the current economic situation.
　企業は過去最高水準の好業績を記録し、景気は緩やかな回復を続けている。原油安も、企業活動や家計にはメリットがある。過度に悲観する必要はあるまい。

However, the yen’s rising value is a source of concern. Many Japanese companies assume an exchange rate of $1 to about ¥120. If the yen becomes stronger than its current value of $1 for about ¥117, it will push down the earnings of export-oriented companies such as automakers and electronics manufacturers.
　ただ、円高の進展は懸念材料である。企業の多くが想定する円相場は、１ドル＝１２０円前後だ。現在の１１７円前後より円高が進めば、自動車や電機といった輸出関連企業の業績を下押ししよう。

While paying consideration to such concerns, the government must prioritize enhancement of its growth strategy. We expect the government to raise the level of the nation’s economy by proceeding with the creation of new enterprises and the development of employment opportunities.
　こうした懸念に目配りしつつ、何より必要なのは、政府の成長戦略を強化することだ。新事業の創出や雇用機会の拡大を進めて、経済の底上げを急ぎたい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 16, 2016)