ＧＤＰ拡大 見かけの高成長に気を許すな

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Nov. 22, 2010)
Govt must be vigilant over economic outlook
ＧＤＰ拡大　見かけの高成長に気を許すな（11月21日付・読売社説）

The nation's economy has achieved moderate growth, but questions remain over its sustainability. The government must watch over the economy's propsects and remain vigilant for signs of deterioration.
　まずまずの成長を実現したが、持続力には疑問符がつく。先行き、景気悪化への警戒を緩めてはならない。

The seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product rose 0.9 percent in July-September from the previous quarter--3.9 percent at an annualized rate--marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase.
　７～９月期の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は、前期比０・９％増と、４四半期連続でプラスだった。１年に換算すると３・９％の成長率になる。

False dawn

Personal consumption, the main pillar of domestic demand, surged partly as a result of robust car sales ahead of the end of government subsidies for eco-friendly cars. In addition, the extremely hot summer weather boosted air conditioner sales.
　エコカー補助金の期限切れを控えた駆け込み需要や夏の猛暑で、自動車やエアコンが売れ、内需の柱である個人消費が急増した。

However, these growth factors represented temporary special demand, meaning that the economy has yet to regain sustainable growth in domestic demand. It is also widely anticipated that the economy in the October-December quarter will contract due to factors including a sharp drop in consumer spending after the third-quarter surge.
　ただし、一時的な特需で押し上げられたもので、地に足のついた内需中心の成長を取り戻したわけではない。１０～１２月期は消費の反動減などで、一転してマイナス成長になるとの見方も強い。

Although the economic prospects may look bright as the Nikkei Stock Average has reattained the 10,000 level, we have to be vigilant. The government and Bank of Japan should take all possible measures to support the nation's economy.
　平均株価が１万円台を回復し、明るさも見えるが、油断は禁物だ。政府・日銀は、景気の下支えに万全を期してもらいたい。

The latest GDP data show that, in contrast to the temporary growth in domestic demand, there has been almost zero growth in external demand as a factor in Japan's economy. External demand has supported GDP growth in the past, but export growth has slowed due to the high value of the yen and the weakness of economies overseas.
　今回のＧＤＰは、内需とうらはらに、これまで成長を下支えしてきた外需が、ほぼゼロ成長になった。円高と海外経済の減速で、輸出の伸びが鈍ったためだ。

In mid-September, the government and Bank of Japan engaged in market intervention for the first time in 6-1/2 years to stop the yen from surging, but appreciation pressure on the currency still remains. For now, it is impossible to wipe away concerns over a downturn in corporate performance, which has finally started to recover, in the latter half of the current fiscal year.
　政府・日銀は９月中旬、円急騰に歯止めをかけようと、６年半ぶりに市場介入したが、円高圧力は残っている。やっと回復してきた企業収益が、下半期に下振れする懸念はぬぐえない。

One good point about the rise in the yen is that people can buy imported goods at low prices, but we must keep in mind that it has side effects--falling prices could chill the economy and increase unemployment.
　円高は輸入品を安く買えるメリットもあるが、物価の下落が景気を冷やし、失業などを増やす副作用を忘れてはなるまい。

The government and Bank of Japan need to maintain a staunch stance against the yen's excessive appreciation.
　政府・日銀は、行き過ぎた円高を阻止する断固とした姿勢を維持する必要がある。

The prospects for domestic demand, which looked strong in the July-September quarter, likely will become increasingly uncertain. Car sales in October dropped more than 20 percent from a year earlier, while cigarette sales plunged 70 percent due to the increased cigarette tax.
　７～９月期は元気に見えた内需も、今後は不透明感が強まりそうだ。１０月は、自動車販売が前年同月より２割以上減り、たばこも増税の影響で７割減となった。

Because the number of eco points awarded for purchases of energy-saving home electrical appliances will be reduced in December, sales of flat-screen TVs and other electrical appliances are robust now, but this will not last long.
　１２月に家電エコポイントが減らされるため、今は薄型テレビなどの販売が好調だが、これも長続きはしないだろう。

Swift action needed

To avoid a major drop in domestic demand, the government must have the supplementary budget pass the Diet quickly and also must accelerate emergency economic measures, including public works projects.
　内需の大きな落ち込みを避けるには、補正予算を早期に成立させ、公共事業など緊急経済対策の執行を急がねばならない。

It is important for the government to build a foundation for private-sector-led growth while it is compensating for demand shortfalls with an adrenaline shot of fiscal spending.
　財政支出のカンフル剤で需要不足を補う間に、民間主導の成長の基盤を作ることが重要である。

However, internal debates over growth strategy have put the administration of Prime Minister Naoto Kan at cross-purposes with itself. It is likely that corporate tax cuts, the centerpiece of the strategy, will be realized only if the industrial sector shoulders additional burdens in the form of other taxes to generate alternative financial resources for the government. Needless to say, this would dampen the cuts' intended invigorating effect on companies.
　だが、成長戦略をめぐる菅政権の論議はちぐはぐだ。戦略の目玉となる法人税減税は、多くの財源を産業界の追加負担でまかなう案が有力という。これでは、企業活性化の効果がそがれてしまう。

Financial resources can be secured by stopping handout policies that have only slight economic effect. Kan should exercise leadership and switch policy priorities.
　経済効果の薄いバラマキ政策をやめれば財源は確保できる。菅首相は指導力を発揮し、政策の優先順位を入れ替えるべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 21, 2010)
（2010年11月21日01時20分 読売新聞）