「首都直下地震」 人命と国の中枢をどう守るか

The Yomiuri Shimbun December 20, 2013
Act to protect lives and govt center from major earthquake damage
「首都直下地震」　人命と国の中枢をどう守るか（12月20日付・読売社説）

Paralysis of the nation’s nerve center in a major earthquake is a worst-case scenario that must be prevented.
　大震災で日本の中枢機能がマヒする最悪の事態を防がねばならない。

A panel of the government’s Central Disaster Management Council, which has been studying measures to deal with the aftermath of a major quake whose focus is directly below Tokyo, has compiled a report on the scale of a predicted temblor and the damage likely to be caused.
　首都直下地震の対策を検討してきた政府の中央防災会議の部会が、予想される地震の規模や、それによる被害予測をまとめた。

The predictions were made based on the assumption of a magnitude-7.3 earthquake occurring with its focus in southern central Tokyo. The panel has adopted this scenario because among the various quakes that might happen in Tokyo and its vicinity, there is a 70-percent possibility that a magnitude-7.3 quake will occur within 30 years and it would strike a direct blow to the nation’s nerve center.
　想定したのは、東京都心南部を震源とするマグニチュード７・３の地震だ。首都周辺で起き得る大地震のうち、今後３０年間の発生確率が７０％と高く、国の中枢を直撃する恐れがあるためという。

The anticipated earthquake would cause shaking at an intensity of upper 6 on the Japanese scale of seven in central Tokyo, even reaching 7 in some areas. In the worst case, 610,000 buildings and houses are predicted to collapse and be destroyed by fire, causing about 23,000 deaths.
　この地震では、震度６強の猛烈な揺れが都心部を襲う。一部地域は震度７になる。最悪の場合、建物６１万棟が倒壊・炎上し、約２万３０００人もの犠牲者が出る。

This reflects the fragility of a gigantic and overpopulated city. Countermeasures must be taken urgently.
　巨大過密都市の弱点を反映したものだ。対策は急務である。

Above all, fires are of serious concern. Fires are anticipated to break out in various places simultaneously and spread for about two days. It is feared that disaster victims will not be able to escape and will be engulfed by fire.
　特に火災は深刻だ。各所で同時多発し、延焼が２日程度続く。被災者が周囲を火に囲まれ、逃げられない事態も心配される。

Streets will be swamped with people who have lost their homes or are unable to return home. Major roads will become unusable due to the debris while railways and other transport networks will be disrupted.
　住宅を失ったり、帰宅できなくなったりした被災者で街はあふれる。がれきで主要道路は不通となり、鉄道など交通網が止まる。

Losses of power, water and telephone connections may continue for about a week.
　停電や電話の不通、断水が１週間程度も続くかもしれない。

Disruption of official functions

Of special concern is that the Diet, the Prime Minister’s Office and government offices will cease to function. If central coordination and control are lost, the damage will be compounded.
　懸念されるのは、国会や首相官邸、官庁街が機能不全になることだ。震災対応の司令塔が失われれば、被害は一層拡大しよう。

Moreover, if the nerve center for economic activities is destroyed, production and distribution will stagnate, with a major impact across the nation. Economic damage is estimated to total about ¥95 trillion.
　経済活動の中枢が壊滅すれば、生産や流通が滞り、全国に甚大な影響が及ぶ。経済被害の額は、約９５兆円に上るという。

　政府や自治体はもちろん、企業や家庭で対策を講じたい。

If the percentage of buildings in Tokyo equipped with earthquake resistance measures is enhanced from the current 87 percent to 94 percent, the death toll would be halved, according to calculations by the panel.
　今回、中央防災会議の部会は、東京都内の建物の耐震化率が今の８７％から９４％に上昇すると、死者数は半減すると試算した。

Regarding fires, if earthquake-sensing breakers, which stop power supply immediately upon sensing a temblor, were installed in every household to reduce the likelihood of fire, it is said that the fire death toll would drop by 90 percent.
　火災についても、揺れを感知して電気を止める「感震ブレーカー」が全戸に普及し、初期消火できれば、焼死者は９割減るという。

The public and private sectors must cooperate in strengthening such immediately needed countermeasures.
　官民が連携し、こうした足元の対策を強化することが肝要だ。

The Cabinet Office, under which the disaster panel exists, has drafted a program to preserve government functions in the aftermath of a disaster, taking into account the panel’s compilation of disaster damage predictions.
　内閣府は、今回の被害想定に合わせ、政府の活動が震災時にも停滞しないようにする「事業継続計画」の素案をまとめた。

The program calls for quickly grasping the damage situation to begin rescue and relief activities. It also points out the need to disseminate accurate information both at home and abroad and make all-out efforts to carry out emergency measures on such priority issues as financial stability and public safety. It will be necessary to clarify the roles to be played by the government ministries and agencies concerned so that measures can be implemented without fail.
　被災状況の把握を急ぎ、救助救援を展開する。内外への正確な情報発信に努め、金融の安定、治安対策などの非常時優先業務に全力を挙げるという内容だ。関係府省の役割分担を明確にし、確実に実施できるよう備えるべきだ。

A special law was enacted last month to accelerate countermeasures against an earthquake centered directly below Tokyo. Areas will be designated based on the law to accelerate the reinforcement of sewerage and other infrastructure systems with the joint efforts of the central and local governments. Projects must be promoted steadily on a priority basis.
　対策の加速を図る首都直下地震対策特措法も先月、成立した。今後、下水道の補強などインフラ整備を急ぐ地域を指定し、政府と自治体が取り組むことになる。優先順位をつけ、着実に進めたい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 20, 2013)
（2013年12月20日01時36分 読売新聞）