インド核協力

(Sep. 10, 2008) The Yomiuri Shimbun
A waiver that shakes NPT to its core
インド核協力　ＮＰＴを揺るがす「例外扱い」（9月10日付・読売社説）

The 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, including Japan, has unanimously adopted a waiver of a ban on exports of nuclear fuel and technology to India. This is a one-off move that will allow civilian nuclear trade with India--a nation that has developed nuclear weapons without becoming a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
日本など４５か国で構成する原子力供給国グループ（ＮＳＧ）が、インドについて、核燃料、原子力技術などの輸出規制の「例外扱い」とすることを全会一致で承認した。
インドは、核拡散防止条約（ＮＰＴ）に加盟せずに、核兵器を開発した国である。

The approval of the waiver essentially means that member nations of the group have shut their eyes to India's nuclear possession and lifted restrictions on nuclear cooperation with India for peaceful purposes. This is, for all intents and purposes, their recognition of India as a nuclear power.
今回の承認は、その核保有を不問に付したまま、民生用の原子力協力への制限を解除するものだ。実質的にインドを核保有国と認めたに等しい。

This decision flew in the face of the NPT's principal objective to halt the number of nuclear powers. We find the NSG's decision extremely disconcerting.
核保有国拡大を阻止するＮＰＴの理念を覆す決定だ。極めて問題だと言わざるを得ない。

NSG nations are obligated to comply with the guidelines stipulating export conditions for nuclear equipment and materials and nuclear technology and to strictly supervise their exports of such materials. Because India is outside the framework of the NPT and has not abandoned its nuclear weapons, NSG member nations naturally had not been able to export nuclear-related material to that country.
ＮＳＧ参加国は、原子力資機材や技術などの輸出条件を定めたガイドライン（指針）に従い、厳密な輸出管理をしている。ＮＰＴの枠外にいて核兵器保有も断念していないインドは、当然ながら、輸出対象外の国だった。

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U.S. flexes its muscles

However, India was granted an exception from the NSG guideline due to some arm-twisting by the U.S. government, which wants its bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement with India to take effect sooner rather than later. The only hurdle now remaining before the U.S.-India deal can take force is ratification by the U.S. Congress.
そのインドを、ＮＳＧ指針の「例外扱い」としたのは、インドとの原子力協力協定の発効を急ぐ米国政府が強く働きかけた結果だ。これで、米印協定の発効には、米議会の承認が残るだけになった。

At the NSG general meeting in August, the United States demanded India be given an unconditional waiver. However, New Zealand, Switzerland and other counties had demanded several conditions be attached to the India agreement, including a clause stipulating an automatic cessation of the waiver if India conducted any more nuclear tests.
８月のＮＳＧ総会では、無条件での「例外扱い」を求める米国に対し、慎重派のスイスやニュージーランドなどは、核実験を再開すれば例外扱いは中止、などの条件をつけるよう主張していた。

At the latest meeting, which was held to discuss the matter from scratch, the United States remained unbending in its opposition to a conditional approval of the waiver. Nations initially circumspect about the waiver eventually opted to go along with its proponents. Some observers have suggested that these countries changed their tune after weighing up the potential gains likely to flow from a cooperative relationship with India, which has been recording sizzling economic growth in recent years.
仕切り直しで開かれた今回も、米国は条件つき承認に反対する姿勢を変えなかった。慎重派は押し切られた形だ。各国とも、経済成長が著しいインドとの協力関係を重視した結果だろう。

Attaching no conditions to the agreement on the waiver leaves several troubling loose ends.
だが、何らの条件もつけなかったことは将来に禍根を残した。

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A promise of sorts

In the NSG agreement, India made a commitment to maintain its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing voluntarily.
ＮＳＧ合意には、インドの「核実験モラトリアム（自発的凍結）継続」の公約が盛り込まれた。

Despite this, India, which has not even signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, claims it has the right to conduct nuclear tests. This leaves open the worrying possibility that India might lift this moratorium depending on moves by China or Pakistan.
だが、核実験全面禁止条約（ＣＴＢＴ）に署名もしていないインドは、核実験をする権利はある、としている。パキスタンや中国の動き次第で凍結を解除する可能性は排除できない。

Japan's stance is that the exceptional treatment should be invalidated or rescinded if India resumes tests of its nuclear weapons.
日本は、インドが核実験を再開すれば、「例外扱いの措置は失効、停止すべきだ」との立場だ。

However, we have doubts over whether the NSG would be able to agree to suspend the trade of nuclear fuel and technology once it starts, because such a decision on a trade ban must, in principle, be made by a unanimous vote.
だが、原子力ビジネスがいったん始まれば、全会一致が原則のＮＳＧで取引停止の合意ができるのか。極めて疑問だ。

India has concluded an inspection agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency--the U.N. nuclear watchdog--concerning civilian-use nuclear facilities. However, facilities for military use have been left untouched and the country has been pressing ahead with its nuclear development. As long as India's nuclear development continues largely unhindered, there is little likelihood that North Korea and Iran will give up their nuclear ambitions.
インドは、民生用の原子力施設については国際原子力機関（ＩＡＥＡ）と査察協定を結んだが、軍事利用は野放しで、核兵器開発は続いている。何の歯止めもかけられない現状で、北朝鮮やイランが核を断念するはずもあるまい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 10, 2008)
（2008年9月10日01時48分 読売新聞）