タイ総選挙 依然見えない混乱収拾への道

The Yomiuri Shimbun February 4, 2014
No end in sight to chaos in Thailand as situation continues to deteriorate
タイ総選挙　依然見えない混乱収拾への道（2月4日付・読売社説）

The political situation has been deteriorating in Thailand, and it is not easy to find even a clue as to how to end the current crisis.
　タイ政治の混迷は一層深まっている。局面打開の糸口を探るのは容易ではない。

Amid antigovernment protests, a general election was held on Sunday. There were no large-scale clashes between protesters and government supporters, as had been feared, but due to disruptions by protesters, the voting was canceled in about 20 percent of the electoral districts.
　反政府デモが続くタイで総選挙が行われた。懸念された大規模な衝突はなかったものの、デモ隊の妨害により、全体の約２割にあたる選挙区で、投票が中止された。

As things stand now, there will not be enough elected parliamentarians to convene parliament. And in those electoral districts where the voting was canceled, there is no clear prospect for holding another vote.
　このままでは、国会を開会するのに必要な議員数を選出できない。投票中止になった選挙区では、再投票の見通しも不透明だ。

Still calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, protesters continue occupying major intersections in Bangkok. It is imperative to be on the lookout for worsening discord.
　デモ隊は依然インラック首相の辞任を求め、バンコク市内で座り込みを続けている。混乱拡大を引き続き警戒する必要がある。

In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.
　今回の選挙は、首相が、兄のタクシン元首相から受け継いだ農民や貧困層における圧倒的支持を背景に、議会を解散し、国民に信を問うたものだ。

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number.
　これに対して、富裕層や都市中間層などからなる反タクシン派は、支持者数ではタクシン派に遠く及ばないこともあり、選挙を経ない暫定統治を要求してきた。

The major opposition Democratic Party, which supports Thaksin’s opponents, has boycotted the vote, in step with the voting disruption by protesters.
　反タクシン派の最大野党・民主党は、デモ隊の選挙妨害に合わせて、選挙をボイコットした。

As voting was canceled in a number of electoral districts, the party has shown its readiness to appeal to the Constitutional Court to invalidate the vote on the grounds it counters the constitutional stipulation requiring elections to be held on one day.
　多くの選挙区が投票中止になったことを巡り、今回の選挙は、「全国で同じ日に行う」とする憲法の規定に違反したとして、憲法裁判所に無効を申し立てる構えも見せている。

Legal overthrow?

Thaksin’s opponents may be aiming to lawfully overthrow the government outside the election.
　反タクシン派が目指しているのは、このような選挙以外の合法的手段による政権打倒だろう。

Under the Constitution, enacted in 2007, the Constitutional Court and the National Anticorruption Commission have strong authority over parliament and public administrative organizations.
　というのも、２００７年制定の憲法では、憲法裁や国家汚職防止委員会などが、国会や行政に対し強い権限を有しているからだ。

Thaksin’s opponents have a majority in all such organizations. Some years ago, the Constitutional Court caused the pro-Thaksin administration to collapse by ruling that electoral fraud rendered an election unconstitutional.
　いずれの組織も反タクシン派が多数を占め、なかでも憲法裁は、違憲判決などでタクシン派政権を崩壊に追い込んだ例もある。

The dynamics of the political conflict are expected to remain for the time being, with Thaksin supporters calling for the principle of majority rule in running the country, while Thaksin’s opponents who attach importance to the “rule of law” by such entities as the Constitutional Court.
　統治方法を巡り、多数決で決着を図るべきだとするタクシン派と憲法裁などによる「法の支配」を重視する反タクシン派が対立する状況が当面続くとみられる。

Meanwhile, the 86-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who has often served as a mediator in times of political instability in the past, has been receiving medical treatment. There is a limit to his influence over the current turmoil.
　過去の政情不安で調停役を果たしてきたプミポン国王も８６歳となり、療養生活を送っている。影響力行使には限界があろう。

It is also worrisome that adverse effects on the economy have become apparent. The tourism industry, the country’s major industry, has been hit hard by the political unrest, with Thailand’s central bank revising downward this year’s projected national growth rate from 4.8 percent to 3 percent.
　経済への悪影響が目立ち始めたことも懸念される。主要産業の観光業は大打撃を受け、タイ中央銀行は今年の成長率見通しを４・８％から３％に引き下げた。

Under the current caretaker government of Prime Minister Yingluck, the government cannot compile a fiscal budget or approve any large-scale investment.
　選挙管理内閣のインラック現政権下では、予算編成や、新規の大型投資認可は行えない。

As Japanese-affiliate companies are expected to shy away from investing in the country, Thai authorities will continue to face a severe ordeal.
　日系企業などが投資を控える動きも予想され、タイ当局にとっては、厳しい試練が続くだろう。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 4, 2014)
（2014年2月4日01時00分 読売新聞）