ブラックマンデイ

(Sep. 17, 2008) The Yomiuri Shimbun
U.S. in no-win situation on Lehman failure
米金融不安　公的資金をためらったツケ（9月17日付・読売社説）

The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the largest factor behind the recent turmoil in the global economy, has claimed its biggest victim to date.
世界経済の最大の波乱要因だったサブプライムローン問題が、ついに、米国の大手証券の破綻(はたん)に発展した。

The failure of major U.S. securities firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. caused the U.S. dollar to sharply drop and stock prices in New York and other markets worldwide to plummet.
この影響でドルは急落し、株価もニューヨーク市場はじめ、世界各地で暴落した。

Financial and monetary authorities in the United States and other nations will need to work together to ensure this does not become the entree to a smorgasbord of even more devastating financial collapses. All possible measures, such as injecting funds into markets and lowering interest rates, need to be taken to ride out this financial emergency.
これ以上の危機の連鎖を防ぐには、米国と各国の金融・通貨当局の協調が欠かせまい。市場への資金供給や緊急利下げなど、あらゆる政策を動員して、この非常時に対処する必要があろう。

◆リーマン破綻の衝撃◆

Lehman Brothers--the nearly 160-year-old prestigious investment bank that was the fourth-largest securities house in the United States--filed for bankruptcy with debts totalling 613 billion dollars. The bankruptcy is the largest ever in the United States.
破綻に追い込まれたのは米証券４位のリーマン・ブラザーズだ。負債総額は６１３０億ドル（約６４兆円）という、米国で過去最大の倒産である。

Many observers had expected that Lehman Brothers would be able to cobble together a rescue plan before it was too late. As a result, the abrupt announcement of its failure Monday sent shock waves through global financial markets.
創業１６０年近い老舗証券で、なんとか救済策がまとまると思われていただけに、突然の破綻に衝撃が走ったのは当然だ。

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Stock prices nosedive

The company's stocks had fallen sharply as the extent of its massive losses and writedowns due to the subprime mortgage crisis became evident. U.S. government officials and private sector representatives tried to devise a way to rescue the firm, but they were unable to settle on to whom the firm should be sold. The rescue efforts proved fruitless.
サブプライムローン問題で巨額な損失を抱えていることが表面化し、株価が急落していた。官民の協議で救済を模索していたが、結局、身売り先が見つからず、行き詰まった。

In March, the U.S. government used public funds to help Bear Sterns, the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, when it ran into financial difficulty. On Sept. 7, the U.S. government also earmarked a huge amount of public funds to rescue government-affiliated mortgage financiers Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
米国政府はこの３月、経営危機に陥った米証券５位のベア・スターンズの救済に公的資金を投入した。今月７日には、政府系住宅金融公社への巨額の公的資金投入を決めた。

This time, however, the federal government refused to provide public funds to keep Lehman Brothers afloat. The U.S. government apparently decided it would no longer shoulder the fiscal burden of extending relief measures so willingly and was concerned that bailout plans would create a culture of moral hazard among financial institutions.
しかし、今回は、公的資金の投入を拒んだ。安易な救済による財政負担を回避し、金融機関のモラルハザード（企業倫理の欠如）を警戒したとされる。

It became obvious, however, that no financial institution would step in to save Lehman Brothers without financial help from the government.
だが、財政支援がなければ、リーマンを救済する金融機関が現れないことは自明だったろう。

Did the U.S. government have any other options? Some observers have suggested that the government should not have hesitated to inject public funds. The Lehman Brothers' case offered a lesson to be learned on what policies should be taken to handle similar cases in the future.
米国政府に、他の選択肢がなかったのか。金融危機の拡大を防ぐには、公的資金の投入をためらうべきではなかった、との指摘もある。今後の政策対応に教訓を残したと言えよう。

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Merrill Lynch another victim

Meanwhile, Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank, has announced it will acquire Merrill Lynch, the third-largest U.S securities firm. The bank had been considered a likely contender to ride to the rescue of Lehman Brothers, but made an about-face.
一方で、米銀行２位のバンク・オブ・アメリカは、米証券３位のメリルリンチを救済合併すると発表した。当初は、リーマン・ブラザーズの救済に乗り出すと見られていたが、方向転換した。

Rumors were swirling among market players that Merrill Lynch would be the next to go under. Its plight left it with no choice but to bite the bullet and take shelter under the Bank of America umbrella.
メリルリンチは、市場で次に危ない証券会社とうわさされており、大手銀行の傘の下に、なりふり構わず逃げ込んだ格好だ。

Three of the five leading U.S. securities firms that had acted as engines for the global economy have been either driven out of the market or bought up by others. This is a highly unusual state of affairs.
この結果、世界を牽引(けんいん)した米証券トップ５社のうち、３社が市場から淘汰(とうた)されたり、買収されるという異常事態につながった。

◆市場の不安払拭がカギ◆

The subprime housing loan problem continues to reverberate around the globe. Anxiety among market players is spreading. Concerns have even arisen about the financial health of American International Group Inc.
問題は、サブプライムローン問題が一向に収束せず、市場に疑心暗鬼が広がっていることだ。米保険最大手ＡＩＧの経営不安説まで流れている。

Stock markets have been turbulent. Monday's New York stock prices plunged more than 500 points from Friday's close. Stock prices in Tokyo fell by more than 600 points as a state of panic gripped investors and selling pressure snowballed.
株式市場は大荒れだ。１５日のニューヨーク株価は先週末比で５００ドル超も値下がりした。東京市場でもパニック的に売りが加速し、下げ幅は６００円を超えた。

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board, in cooperation with the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, has decided to supply money to short-term markets to calm fears. Speculation that the FRB would cut interest rates heightened Tuesday.
これを受けて、米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）は、欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）や日銀と連携し、短期金融市場に一斉に資金供給を行った。ＦＲＢが１６日に利下げに踏み切るとの観測も急浮上した。

These moves likely came as the Fed hoped to stop the declines in stock prices worldwide. But in reality, wiping out financial uncertainty will be next to impossible unless U.S. housing prices stop falling. The measures, we fear, may end up being not very effective.
世界同時株安に、なんとか歯止めをかけたいと考えてのことだろう。だが、米国の住宅価格の下落に歯止めがかからない限り、金融不安の払拭(ふっしょく)は難しいのが現実だ。政策の手詰まり感は否めない。

◆日本にとっても大津波◆

A vicious cycle--in which financial uncertainty cools down the real U.S. economy and causes an economic downturn--is becoming reality. Fears over ensuing slowdowns in the economies of Japan and other nations are growing.
金融不安が、米国の実体経済を冷え込ませ、景気後退を招く悪循環が現実になりつつある。それが日本を含む世界経済を減速させる恐れも高まっている。

The Lehman shock cannot be brushed off as a "fire on the other side of the river." Rather, it is a "tsunami" of the largest scale. The utmost care should be taken in policy management to prevent the flagging Japanese economy from deteriorating further.
リーマン・ショックは、日本にとって対岸の火事どころか、最大級の津波といえよう。ただでさえ悪化しつつある景気が底割れしないよう、政策運営に細心の注意を払わねばならない。

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Unfavorable winds

The annualized growth rate of Japan's gross domestic product in the April-June period was revised downward from minus 2.4 percent in a preliminary report to minus 3 percent. If the economies of other nations, including the United States, continue to be battered by confusion in financial markets, winds unfavorable to the Japanese economy might blow stronger.
４～６月期の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は、年率換算の成長率が速報のマイナス２・４％からマイナス３・０％に下方修正された。金融市場の混乱で米国をはじめ海外経済が一段と冷え込めば、日本経済への逆風はさらに強まることになる。

Under these circumstances, the government's top priority should be to quell uncertainty over the financial markets.
こうした状態で、最優先で取り組むべきは、金融市場の不安の沈静化である。

As some financial institutions hurried to obtain newly released funds, short-term interest rates in the Tokyo market rose. In response, the Bank of Japan injected additional funds. The central bank must continue to promptly supply funds to prevent the financial contraction that all corporate managers dread.
一部の金融機関が資金調達を急いだことで、東京市場で短期金利が上昇した。それに対応して日銀が追加の資金供給に踏み切った。企業経営にとって大敵の金融収縮を防ぐため、日銀は機動的に資金供給を続ける必要があろう。

Japanese financial institutions have exposure to Lehman Brothers of more than 400 billion yen. These institutions must do everything they can to get a clear picture of what will happen to those liabilities and related losses that might be incurred.
国内の金融機関が保有するリーマン向け債権は計４０００億円に達する。これら債権がどうなるのか、関連損失も含めた影響の把握を急がねばならない。

Crude oil prices have dropped sharply in recent weeks due to uncertainty over the world economy. Meanwhile, many Japanese export industries are at risk of being hit hard as the yen continues to appreciate against the dollar.
世界経済の先行き不安から、原油は大幅に値下がりしたが、円高・ドル安の進行で、日本の輸出産業への打撃が懸念される。

The government should consider drawing up measures that provide relief as soon as possible to prevent the credit crunch from debilitating small and midsized companies, and support corporate efforts to keep their employees on the payroll.
中小企業に対する貸し渋りの防止や、雇用確保のための支援など、ショックの痛みを和らげる施策を早急に検討すべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 17, 2008)
（2008年9月17日01時51分 読売新聞）