南海トラフ地震 最大級の危機にどう備えるか

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Mar. 20, 2013)
Preparing for disasters of the largest scale
南海トラフ地震　最大級の危機にどう備えるか（3月19日付・読売社説）

A working group of the government's Central Disaster Management Council has compiled a report on the expected damage that would be caused by a magnitude-9 Nankai Trough triple earthquake, in which the so-called Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai quakes happen simultaneously.
　東海、東南海、南海地震などが同時に起きるマグニチュード（Ｍ）９級の南海トラフ巨大地震について、政府の中央防災会議作業部会が被害予測の全体像をまとめた。

The huge quake is forecast to cause about 220 trillion yen in economic damage, in the worst-case scenario.
　経済的被害は最悪の場合、約２２０兆円に上る。

The quake and subsequent tsunami is forecast to cause about 170 trillion yen of damage to homes and office buildings, about 10 times the damage caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami.
このうち、地震や津波で建物などが壊れる直接の被害だけで、最大約１７０兆円に達する。東日本大震災の約１０倍に相当する額だ。

The public and private sectors will need to cooperate and boost the nation's preparedness for such a massive disaster.
官民が連携し、備えを強化せねばならない。

The prediction was made on the assumption that densely populated areas and key industrial bases from the Tokyo metropolitan area along to the Chubu, Kansai, Shikoku and Kyushu regions would be rocked violently by the quake, followed by tsunami higher than 30 meters in some areas.
　首都圏から中部、関西圏と四国、九州までの人口密集地や産業拠点を激しい揺れと最大３０メートル超の津波が襲う、との想定である。

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Once in 1,000 years

Last summer, the working group released a prediction that up to about 320,000 people would die in Tokyo, Osaka and 28 other prefectures following the Nankai Trough triple earthquake. The latest report focused on likely economic damage.
　作業部会は昨年夏、３０都府県で最大約３２万人が死亡するとの予測を公表した。それに今回は経済被害などを加えた。

The group forecast the total value of corporate production of goods and services--the core of Japan's economic activity--would decline by as much as about 45 trillion yen, nearly 10 percent of gross domestic product, in the year following the disaster, due to suspended production at destroyed factories and other factors.
　経済活動の核である生産・サービスの総額は、工場倒壊による生産休止などにより、被災後１年間で約４５兆円も落ち込む。国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の１割近い。

The group said such a quake occurs "at a frequency of less than once every 1,000 years," emphasizing that such a disaster would be extremely rare.
　作業部会は「１０００年に１度以下の頻度でしか起きない」と説明し、極めてまれな災害であることを強調している。

Although there is no need to worry excessively about such a megaquake, the devastating quake that struck off the Tohoku coast on March 11, 2011, also was an event expected to occur once every 1,000 years. Complacency is not an option.
過度に不安を抱く必要はないが、東日本大震災も１０００年に１度の地震だった。油断は禁物である。

The important thing is to put in place as many "disaster mitigation" preparations as possible. The central government and local municipalities likely to be affected by the disaster should review their disaster-management processes based on the latest estimate.
　大切なのは、「減災」へ向け可能な限り対策を講じることだ。今回の被害予測を踏まえ、政府や関係自治体は、防災対策を総点検する必要がある。

According to the group's calculation, making buildings more quake-resistant could halve the economic damage wrought by the disaster. The group also said quick evacuations could reduce tsunami deaths by 90 percent.
　作業部会の試算によると、建物の耐震化などで経済被害は半減できるという。津波による犠牲者も、早期避難で９割減る。

The central and local governments have already been making such efforts.
　いずれも、政府、自治体が、すでに取り組んできた対策だ。

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Take basic steps first

The important thing is to, first of all, take basic steps such as accelerating the repair of buildings that lack quake-resistance and securing evacuation facilities and tsunami escape routes.
　耐震性を欠く建物の改修を加速させる。津波に備えた避難ルートや避難ビルを整備する。まずは、こうした基本的対策が重要だ。

It is also essential to reinforce networks of trunk roads, harbors and airports to enable immediate rescue and relief operations and reduce damage to the economy.
　迅速な救助・救援を可能にし、経済への影響を軽減するためには、幹線道路や港湾、空港など交通網の強化も欠かせない。

When the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito were in the opposition camp last year, they submitted to the Diet a bill concerning special measures to deal with the potential Nankai Trough triple quake. The bill would provide more government subsidies for making disaster management facilities more quake-resistant. However, the bill was abandoned with the dissolution of the House of Representatives.
　自民、公明両党は野党時代の昨年、補助金で防災施設の耐震化を促進する南海トラフ巨大地震対策特別措置法案を国会に提出したが、衆院解散で廃案となった。

The bill would reinforce the present special measures law that promotes steps to deal with the Tonankai and Nankai quakes. The LDP and Komeito are considering resubmitting the bill. We hope the bill will be thoroughly discussed in the Diet.
　現行の東南海・南海地震対策推進特措法を強化する内容で、両党は再提出を検討している。国会でしっかり議論してもらいたい。

Aside from the Nankai Trough quake, the government has predicted a separate Tokai quake has an 88 percent chance of occurring in the next 30 years, while a Tonankai quake has a 70 percent chance and the Nankai quake a 60 percent chance.
　南海トラフ巨大地震とは別に、政府は、東海、東南海、南海の各地震が今後３０年以内にそれぞれ、８８％、７０％、６０％の高い確率で起きると予測している。

There is no time to waste in getting prepared to handle these disasters.
　対策は待ったなしである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 19, 2013)
（2013年3月19日01時19分 読売新聞）