原油価格下落

(Aug. 19, 2008) The Yomiuri Shimbun
Speculative funds leaving oil market

Has the crude oil bubble started to collapse?
原油価格下落　逃げ出し始めた投機マネー（8月19日付・読売社説）
“原油バブル”の崩壊が始まったと見ていいのだろうか。

Crude oil prices, which had soared to record highs, have changed direction in dramatic fashion.
原油価格の急激な上昇傾向に、大きな変化が生じている。

After the international benchmark New York crude oil futures price peaked at about 147 dollars per barrel on July 11, the price started to decline. The price is now hovering above 110 dollars a barrel, having dropped more than 30 dollars.
国際指標であるニューヨーク市場の原油先物価格は、７月１１日に１バレル＝１４７ドルの最高値をつけたあと下落し、このところ１１０ドル台前半で推移している。下落幅は３０ドルを超えた。

The steep rise in crude oil prices caused increases in prices of other fuels and grains, leading to international inflation.
原油価格の高騰は、他の燃料や穀物価格に飛び火し、国際的なインフレを引き起こしてきた。

In this regard, the sudden decline in crude oil prices can be seen as a welcome development that should help stabilize the international economy.
それが一転しての価格下落は、世界経済の安定につながる動きとして歓迎できよう。

Though crude oil prices have dropped recently, they are still high--about twice what they were 18 months ago. Advanced nations must work together to realize further decline in crude oil prices with such measures as tightened regulations on investment funds which have created increase in crude oil prices.
下落したとはいえ、原油価格は１年半前の約２倍の高水準だ。先進各国は、価格高騰を演出してきた投資ファンドへの規制を一層強化するなど、原油価格のさらなる下落で協調すべきだ。

Crude oil prices stayed within a 20 dollars range in the early 2000s. However, in anticipation of increased crude oil prices due to heightened demand resulting from the economic development of China, India and other nations, speculative money flooded into the oil market, leading to a steep price increase.
原油価格は、２０００年代の初めごろは２０ドル台だった。だが、中国やインドなどの経済発展で原油需給が引き締まり、先行き値上がりすると読んだ投機マネーが流入したことで、一気に高騰した。

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Speculation driving increase
（見通しは暗い）

In its 2008 white paper on international trade and economy issued in July, the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry estimated that 50 dollars of the 125 dollars-per-barrel price of crude oil in May was the result of speculation rather than the actual supply-demand situation.
７月に公表された経済産業省の通商白書は、今年５月時点の原油価格１バレル＝１２５ドルのうち、実需に基づかない投機マネーによる上乗せ分が５０ドルあると分析した。

With global criticism against excessive actions by investment funds, the United States, which had been cautious about tightening regulations on investment funds, finally took action, helping to change the trend in crude oil prices.
投資ファンドの行き過ぎた行動に対する国際的な批判が高まり、規制に慎重だった米国が、重い腰を上げたことが流れを変えた。

Late last month, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged one investment fund saying it gained illicit profits by manipulating crude oil and other markets. Bills to tighten controls on futures trading have been circulating in Congress.
商品先物取引に関する米国の規制当局が７月下旬、原油市場などで不正な利益をあげたとして、投資ファンドの一つを摘発した。

With such moves to rein in investment funds, speculative money seems to have started to exit from the markets.
米議会には、先物取引の規制を強化する法案も提出された。こうした“包囲網”で、投機マネーが市場から逃避し始めたようだ。

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Slowing demand
（景気の悪化）

In addition, as the global economy has become bearish, views have emerged that crude oil demand will not increase as fast as it has been, leading to drops in crude oil prices.
このほか、世界的に景気が弱含みとなり、原油需要が伸び悩むとの見方が浮上してきたことも、原油価格の下落につながった。
bearish＝相場が下がり気味の

However, it remains uncertain whether crude oil prices will continue their downward trend.
ただし、今後も一本調子で原油価格が値下がりするかどうかは不透明だ。

There are signs that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce oil production. In addition, if the Iran situations grows strained, crude oil prices will certainly rise again.
石油輸出国機構（ＯＰＥＣ）には、減産の動きも見られる。イラン情勢などが緊迫すれば、再上昇は必至とされる。

Promotion of energy-saving measures and development of alternative energy sources must not be slowed down.
省エネルギーの推進や、代替エネルギーの開発などの手をゆるめてはなるまい。

In Japan, which suffered from high fuel costs recently, lower-priced crude oil soon will arrive from the Middle East and other locations. The reduced crude oil prices must be translated into retail prices of oil products immediately.
燃料費の高騰に苦しんできた日本にも、いずれ値下がりした原油が中東などから到着する。その値下がり分を、速やかに小売価格に反映させるべきだ。

A decline in the prices of gasoline and heating oil should help to warm up cooled consumer sentiment.
ガソリンや灯油などの価格が下がれば、冷え込んだ消費心理も、少しはやわらぐのではないか。
heating oil＝灯油

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Aug. 19, 2008)
（2008年8月19日02時12分 読売新聞）