日銀短観悪化 景気下支えに重要なＧ７協調

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Cooperation of G-7 nations crucial in order to prop up global economy
日銀短観悪化　景気下支えに重要なＧ７協調

Economic prospects are becoming increasingly uncertain.
　景気の先行き不透明感が強まっている。

The headline diffusion index for business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers stood at plus six, according to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey for March, down six points from the previous survey for December.
　３月の日銀企業短期経済観測調査（短観）は、企業の景況感を示す業況判断指数が大企業・製造業で６となり、昨年１２月の前回調査から６ポイント低下した。

The index for large nonmanufacturers declined by three points to 22, the first decline in 18 months. The sentiment index for small and medium-size firms fell in both the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors.
　大企業・非製造業は、３ポイント低い２２で、１年半ぶりに悪化した。中小企業も、製造業と非製造業の指数がそろって下がった。

Due to the business slowdown in emerging economies, plus the yen’s appreciation and drops in stock prices since the turn of the year, pessimism has been growing stronger over business prospects. Slackening domestic consumption is also behind the weak index reading. It is no wonder that the current business sentiment showed a retreat.
　新興国経済の減速や、年初からの円高・株安を受けて、今後の業績を不安視する見方が強まっている。国内消費が力強さを欠いていることも響いた。足元の景況感が後退するのも、無理はない。

It is a matter of concern that the index looking three months ahead shows a further deterioration in business sentiment.
　問題は、３か月後を予想した先行きの指数が、景況感の一段の悪化を示していることである。

The assumed exchange rate on which this forecast is based is ¥117.00-99 to the U.S. dollar, about ¥5 weaker than the current level. If the current strength of the yen continues, corporate performance will further deteriorate.
　この予想の前提となる想定為替レートは、現在より５円ほど円安の１ドル＝１１７円台だ。現在の円高水準が続けば、企業業績はさらに厳しくなろう。

To prevent an economic downturn, the government and the Bank of Japan must make all-out efforts to ensure economy-first policy management.
　景気の下振れを回避するため、政府・日銀は、経済最優先の政策運営に万全を期すべきだ。

It is worrying that no growth engine can be found to drive the global economy following the slowdown of the Chinese economy.
　中国経済が減速したため、世界経済の成長エンジンが見当たらないのは心配である。

Abe’s leadership tested

During a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington on Thursday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that the Group of Seven major countries “must lead the global economy for a certain period of time.”
　安倍首相は日米首脳会談で、「しばらくはＧ７（先進７か国）が世界経済を牽引けんいんしていかなければならない」と指摘した。

It is essential for Japan, the United States and Europe to pull together and mobilize all possible policy tools such as structural reform and fiscal stimulus measures.
　日米欧が連携し、構造改革や財政出動などの政策手段を総動員することが欠かせない。

At the Ise-Shima G-7 summit in Mie Prefecture set for May, Abe will be required as chair of the meeting to take the leadership in coming up with practical cooperative policies.
　首相には、議長を務める５月の主要国首脳会議（伊勢志摩サミット）で、実効性のある協調政策の取りまとめに、指導力を発揮することが求められる。

It is also necessary to deal with the capital flight back to developed countries, which is a factor behind the turmoil in emerging economies. A common understanding must be forged so that a hasty hike in U.S. interest rates will not cause further damage to emerging economies.
　新興国経済の混乱要因である先進国への資金逆流にも、目配りが要る。米国の性急な利上げが新興国に追い打ちをかけないよう、認識をしっかり共有したい。

The latest Tankan survey shows that plant and equipment investments by major firms likely grew considerably in fiscal 2015, which ended on March 31. This is a favorable factor for realizing growth led by the private sector.
　今回の短観では、２０１５年度の大企業の設備投資が、大幅に伸びる見通しとなった。民需主導の成長実現へ、明るい材料だ。

However, ordinary corporate profits are expected to decline in fiscal 2016. Amid the likely prospect that corporate achievements will hit a ceiling, businesses will be put to the test as to whether they can maintain their willingness to invest.
　ただし、１６年度の経常利益は減益の予想だ。業績頭打ちが見込まれる中、企業が投資意欲を持続できるかどうかが問われる。

Firms continue to face a serious lack of manpower, so it is important for them to achieve labor saving and enhance productivity. Top corporate executives should not hesitate to make advance investments to realize new growth.
　企業の「人手不足感」は引き続き強く、省力化や生産性向上の重要性は大きい。経営者は、新たな成長への先行投資を、ためらわないでもらいたい。

Policy assistance is also important to give forward-looking firms a supportive push. The government must expedite efforts to ramp up growth strategies by more quickly lowering the effective corporate tax rates and abolishing regulations hindering the market participation of new corporate entrants.
　政策的な支援で、前向きな企業の背中を押すことも大事だ。政府は、法人税実効税率の引き下げペースの加速や、企業の新規参入を阻む規制の撤廃など、成長戦略の強化を急がねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, April 2, 2016)