景気後退

(Aug. 16, 2008) The Yomiuri Shimbun
Negative GDP growth a setback for business
ＧＤＰ速報　景気後退示すマイナス成長（8月16日付・読売社説）

The economy has shrunk for the first time in 12 months, according to a preliminary report issued by the Cabinet Office on the nation's gross domestic product.
経済成長率が１年ぶりにマイナスとなった。

The government had already in effect admitted in its August monthly economic report that the economy is in a contraction phase. The latest figures provide concrete evidence for that assertion.
政府が８月の月例経済報告で事実上認めた景気後退が、数字でも裏付けられた。
contraction＝縮小、収縮

The government must draw up stimulus measures to enhance growth minimize the depth and length of the economic downturn.
景気悪化の「深さ」と「長さ」を最小限にとどめるため、成長力強化の取り組みが必要だ。

GDP slumped 2.4 percent in the April-June period from the previous quarter on an annualized basis. The margin of decrease was as large as that for the July-September quarter of 2001, during the last period of economic doldrums.
４～６月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）実質成長率は、年率換算の前期比でマイナス２・４％だった。落ち込み幅は、前回の景気後退期だった２００１年７～９月期以来の大きさとなった。
doldrums＝景気の不振、沈滞

The economy contracted because individual consumption, the main pillar for domestic demand, fell for the first time in almost two years, and the nation's exports, which had been supporting the business boom, also lost momentum.
マイナスに転落したのは、内需の柱である個人消費がほぼ２年ぶりに減少に転じ、景気を支えてきた輸出も失速したためだ。
contracted＝景気が失速する momentum＝勢い

Despite the fact that incomes have not risen, import prices of crude oil and grains have surged, causing spikes in the price of food products and daily necessities that have dampened household spending.
収入が増えないのに、原油や穀物の輸入価格高騰で食品や日用品が値上がりし、家計が消費を手控えた。

As a result of the slowdown in the U.S. economy due to the subprime loan problem, exports also fell sharply. The framework under which external demand compensated for weak domestic demand has collapsed.
サブプライムローン問題で米国経済が減速した影響で、輸出にも急ブレーキがかかった。ふらつく内需を外需がカバーしてきた構図が崩れてしまった。

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No positive factors in sight
（見通しは暗い）

Since factors other than consumption give little cause for optimism, there is no locomotive for boosting the economy.
消費以外も低調で、景気の牽引役は見当たらない。
locomotive＝機関車、ここでは景気を牽引する要素

Housing starts have declined for the first time in two quarters, directly affected by a jump in the cost of construction materials.
住宅投資は、建設資材の高騰が響いて２期ぶりのマイナスだった。

Spending on public works also has dipped substantially, the first such decline in two years.
公共投資も２年ぶりの大きな落ち込み幅となった。

This came largely as a result of the move by many local governments to freeze construction orders after the suspension for the month of April of the provisionally higher tax on gasoline and other provisional taxes that provide fiscal resources for road construction and maintenance.
４月に道路財源であるガソリン税などの暫定税率が期限切れとなり、多くの地方自治体が工事の発注などを一時的に抑えた影響が大きい。

Fearing a decline in sales, companies cannot pass on to consumers the rise in prices of raw materials to the extent they would like to.
企業は原材料が上がっても売れ行きの減少が心配で、思ったように販売価格に転嫁できない。

This squeezes their profits. It is expected that companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's First Section will see decreases in profits--the first in seven years--for the business year ending March 2009.
利益は圧縮され、東証１部上場企業の来年３月期決算は、７年ぶりに減益に転じる見込みだ。

Recently, signs that unfavorable factors are receding can be seen, as crude oil prices have fallen and the yen has stopped appreciating against the dollar. However, financial markets are still facing uncertainty, so there is no ground for complacency.
このところ、原油高や急速な円高に一服感が出るなど、悪材料に解消の兆しも見える。しかし、マーケットの先行きは不透明で、油断はできない。
receding＝後退する complacency＝安心感

Many economists predict the economy will recover in the July-September quarter, posting modest growth. A rapid deterioration in the economy may be avoidable for now, but we have to be prepared for low growth to continue for the foreseeable future.
エコノミストの多くは、７～９月期は小幅なプラス成長に回復すると予想する。今のところ、加速度的な景気の悪化は回避できそうだが、しばらくは低成長が続くと覚悟した方がいい。
deterioration＝悪化

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Quick fiscal fixes not answer
（こてさきの景気浮揚策はやめたほうが良い）

The government is expected to map out a comprehensive economic pump-priming package within this month. Members of the ruling parties have increasingly been calling for stimulus measures, such as an income tax cut, and for the government to put back its deadlines for realizing fiscal health.
政府は月内にも総合経済対策をまとめる。与党内では、所得税減税などの景気てこ入れ策や、財政健全化目標の先送りを求める声が強まっている。

Economic stimulus measures such as tax cuts and additional public works projects may work as temporary remedies, but they will do little to strengthen the economy's fundamentals and boost growth in the long term.
だが、減税や公共事業の追加などの景気浮揚策は、一時的なカンフル剤とはなっても、日本経済の体質を強化し、成長力を高める効果は期待しにくい。

The government should focus on measures to ameliorate the effects of high raw materials prices that have aggravated the economic situation and on assistance to help industry carry out structural reforms. It should not resort to quick-fix fiscal measures.
景気悪化を招いた原材料高ショックを和らげる緊急措置や、産業構造の転換支援などに絞り、安易な財政出動は避けるべきだ。
ameliorate＝改善する resort＝～にたよる、～に訴える

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Aug. 16, 2008)
（2008年8月16日01時59分 読売新聞）