社説:日銀の追加緩和 泥沼化のリスク高まる

November 01, 2014(Mainichi Japan)
Editorial: More monetary easing at BOJ risks slide into economic chaos
社説:日銀の追加緩和　泥沼化のリスク高まる

The Bank of Japan (BOJ), the country' central bank, has further eased its monetary grip. The move comes 18 months after the BOJ took unprecedentedly large-scale monetary easing steps as the "first arrow" of Abenomics, an economic policy mix promoted by the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Moreover, the latest round of monetary easing coincided with end of the U.S.'s own quantitative relaxation program.
　日銀が量的緩和を一段と強化した。アベノミクスの「第一の矢」として異例の大規模緩和が登場し１年半。米国が量的緩和を終了したタイミングでの日本の追加緩和だ。

Financial markets reacted sharply to the move, with the yen diving and share prices spiking.
　驚いた市場は反応し、円安、株高が大幅に進んだ。

However, the BOJ was pressured to implement additional monetary easing steps because its ultra-easy money policy, adopted in April 2013 by newly appointed BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, had not proven sufficiently effective. One cannot help but doubt whether the reinforcement of measures that had not produced the desired results the first time round will brighten prospects for steady economic growth. Moreover, the central bank's latest round of monetary relaxation is, so to speak, a dangerous drug that could produce serious side-effects.
　しかし、である。ここで追加緩和に踏み切らざるを得なくなったのは、昨年４月に黒田東彦新総裁の下、導入した「異次元緩和」が十分効果を上げていないことの裏返しと言える。うまくいっていないものを一段と強化した先に果たして展望は開けるのだろうか。しかも副作用の多い、劇薬なのである。

Under the scenario of the "first arrow," the government and the BOJ projected that their goal of 2 percent annual inflation would be achieved and the economy pulled out of its slump if the money supply from the central bank doubled over a two-year period. In other words, the government and the BOJ attempted to convince the public that consumer prices would rise by dramatically increasing the money supply.
　「物価の年間上昇率２％」を明確な目標として宣言し、お金の量を２年で２倍に増やせば、目標が達成でき、経済も復活する−−。第一の矢のシナリオだった。衝撃的な量の資金供給を行うことで人々に「物価上昇の時が来た」と信じこませる効果を狙った。

True, consumer prices gradually increased, but the rise has slowed down because the fall in the yen's value has not produced sufficient results and oil prices have declined. The first arrow has not led to a virtuous cycle in which higher spending on factories, equipment and consumer goods increases corporate profits and wages, which in turn expand consumption.
　確かに物価は徐々に上昇基調に転じたものの、円安による効果が抜け落ち、原油価格の下落も手伝って、このところ上昇幅は縮む一方である。設備投資や消費が活発化し、企業収益が増え、賃金が上昇し、さらに消費が増える、といった望ましい循環が起きているとは言い難い。

The BOJ ended up implementing additional monetary easing steps on a step-by-step basis. This is very much like the central bank's policy under the governorship of Masaaki Shirakawa, though Kuroda had criticized his predecessor's measures as ineffective in overcoming deflation.
　結局、あれほど「デフレ脱却の効果はない」と批判していた白川方明前総裁時代の段階的な追加緩和の手法を取らざるを得なくなった。

In the meantime, the BOJ's massive purchases of government bonds as part of its ultra-easy money policy have adversely affected the domestic bond market. Especially bonds that are due to mature shortly are in extremely short supply, causing abnormal situations such as negative interest.
　一方、量的緩和により日銀が国債を大量に買い占めている影響で、国債市場のゆがみも目立ってきた。満期までの期間が短いものを中心に極端な品薄状態となり、マイナス金利という異常事態も起きている。

Despite these circumstances, the BOJ further eased its monetary grip. If the yen becomes weaker -- aided partly by the end of U.S. quantitative relaxation -- the prices of imported goods will rise, which would squeeze household budgets further.
　そうした中にあって、さらにアクセルを踏むという。ドル高に作用する米国の量的緩和終了も相まって、円安が一層進めば、輸入品の値段が上がる。物価上昇には役立っても、家計を圧迫するだけだ。国債市場のゆがみも一段と深刻化するだろう。

Through the latest monetary easing steps, the BOJ will increase the amount of long-term government bonds the central bank buys annually by 30 trillion yen to some 80 trillion yen. If investors were to believe that the BOJ accepts a huge amount of the government's debts, international confidence in Japan would be lost, causing the market prices of government bonds to plummet and rates of long-term interest on such bonds to rise, which could throw Japan's economy into chaos.
　今回の追加緩和により、日銀が年間に買い増す長期国債の額は３０兆円拡大し、約８０兆円に達する。日銀が政府の借金を丸抱えしていると市場からみなされれば、国の信用が疑われ、国債価格が急落（長期金利は急騰）する恐れがある。経済の大混乱は避けられまい。

Despite the latest additional monetary easing steps, the BOJ predicts that next fiscal year's inflation rate will be 1.7 percent, falling short of the 2 percent target. As the BOJ has repeatedly eased its monetary grip, the central bank could find it increasingly difficult to find an exit ramp out of the policy, as the U.S. has just done. Moreover, concerns have been raised that the implementation of such abnormal monetary policy measures could be prolonged.
　今回の追加緩和をもってしても、日銀の予測では、目標となる来年度の物価上昇率が１．７％と２％に満たない。追加緩和を繰り返し、出口がますます遠のきはしないか。異例の政策が長期化することによる弊害が心配だ。

The BOJ has ventured deeply into a dangerous area that it should not, as the central bank, have entered in the first place.
　中央銀行として踏み込むべきではない領域にまた深く、日銀は足を進めてしまった。

毎日新聞　2014年11月01日　02時33分