自民党総裁選

(Sep. 8, 2008) The Yomiuri Shimbun
A prime opportunity to debate economic issues
自民党総裁選　経済論議を深める好機だ（9月8日付・読売社説）

The Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be held on Sept. 22 as the nation faces a myriad of thorny economic issues.
難しい経済課題が山積する中で自民党総裁選が行われる。

We hope the LDP lawmakers that plan to throw their hats into the ring will engage in in-depth discussions on economic policies to kick-start Japan's economy, attain robust economic growth and dispel public anxiety over the nation's future.
日本経済の閉塞感を打ち破り、望ましい経済成長と将来不安の解消を実現するにはどうすればいいのか。経済政策について、突っ込んだ論戦を展開してもらいたい。

First of all, candidates will have to address the question of how they intend to resuscitate the economy, which is believed to have entered a recession although the government has yet to make an official declaration.
まず、後退局面入りが確実となった景気の立て直しにどう取り組むかが問われよう。

Although the government and ruling parties have announced an 11.7 trillion yen economic stimulus package, the country's economic condition hardly allows any room for optimism. Household finances are increasingly feeling the pinch as prices of vehicles and home appliances are increasing following spikes in the cost of foods and other daily necessities. The number of bankruptcies is on the rise, and banks are becoming reluctant to lend.
政府・与党は１１・７兆円の総合経済対策を決めたが、食品や日用品に続いて、自動車や家電製品などにも値上げが広がり、家計はますます苦しい。倒産も増え、銀行は融資に慎重になっている。

Japan has little leeway to cut interest rates, and its fiscal condition is in dire straits. We hope candidates in the LDP election will present and discuss a raft of proposals for invigorating corporate activities by easing the credit crunch and revamping regulations, in addition to suggestions for overhauling the corporate tax system with the aim of boosting the international competitive edge of Japanese corporations.
金利引き下げの余地は乏しく、財政事情も厳しい。貸し渋り対策や規制改革による企業活動の活性化、国際競争力の向上を目指した法人税改革など、さまざまなアイデアを出して論じてほしい。

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Money doesn't grow on trees

The candidates also will need to come up with answers to challenges left unaddressed by the administration of outgoing Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda.
福田政権が積み残した宿題への回答も必要だ。

The government has no viable plan on the table to finance a 1.8 trillion yen fiscal 2008 supplementary budget it plans to submit to the Diet to boost the economy. The government has decided to provide fixed-amount cuts in income and resident taxes within this fiscal year, but has postponed discussions on the scale of the tax cuts and financial resources for the measure.
経済対策に使う補正予算１・８兆円の財源は、まだ手当てがついていない。所得税・住民税の定額減税は今年度中に実施する方針だけが決まり、減税の規模や財源の論議は先送りされている。

The government has yet to figure out how to rustle up the 2.3 trillion yen it will need in next fiscal year's budget to finance a rise in the state burden of the costs for paying out the basic pension. Candidates must show how they plan to deal with these looming fiscal headaches.
来年度予算では、基礎年金の国庫負担割合の引き上げに必要な２・３兆円を確保するメドが立っていない。こうした問題への解決策を示さねばなるまい。

The candidates' differing takes on how to restore the nation's fiscal health are likely be major points of contention during the upcoming presidential election.
今回の総裁選では、財政健全化に対する姿勢の違いが、大きな争点となりそうだ。

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Differing policies

LDP Secretary General Taro Aso, who has expressed his intention to enter the race, is a proponent of economic recovery through robust fiscal spending. He has even stated that the nation's goal of turning the primary balance to the black in fiscal 2011--a step to improve the nation's fiscal health--might have to be postponed.
「ポスト福田」に名乗りを上げた麻生幹事長は、景気回復を優先し、積極的な財政出動に前向きな考えを示している。２０１１年度に基礎的財政収支を黒字化する財政健全化目標について、先送りもあり得るとしている。

One of Aso's rivals, Kaoru Yosano, state minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy, is opposed to large-scale pump-priming measures by the government.
一方、対抗馬の一人である与謝野経済財政相は、大規模な財政出動に反対している。

He advocates securing stable financial resources by, among other methods, raising the consumption tax rate. He also calls for maintaining the fiscal reconstruction goal.
消費税率の引き上げなどで安定した財源を確保し、健全化目標を堅持すべきだと主張してきた。

Some LDP members assert that Japan can attain the 2011 goal without tax increases if it can attain a high economic growth rate through structural reforms. The LDP presidential race thus will provide a prime opportunity to delve into those issues.
このほか自民党内には、構造改革で高い成長率を実現すれば、増税しなくても健全化目標は達成可能とする意見もある。議論を大いに深めるチャンスだろう。

Furthermore, we urge candidates to present their blueprints for reforming the social security system, including the pension programs.
さらに、年金をはじめとした社会保障制度の改革について青写真を示すよう求めたい。

Resorting to tapping the so-called buried gold--a huge amount of surplus or accumulated money in the nation's special accounts--to finance the social security and other programs would be no more than a stop-gap measure.
特別会計にある「埋蔵金」を取り崩して財源にあてるのでは、単なる一時しのぎだ。

The consumption tax rate must be raised to secure a stable financial resource for the nation. No other measure seems viable. Candidates in the LDP race should clearly explain when the consumption tax rate should be increased.
安定的な財源を確保するには消費税率を引き上げるしかない。それをどのタイミングで具体化するか、明快に論じるべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 8, 2008)
（2008年9月8日01時41分 読売新聞）