ＦＲＢ出口戦略 市場の混乱防ぐ舵取りが要る

The Yomiuri Shimbun June 22, 2013
Fed needed to steer policy for preventing market turmoil
ＦＲＢ出口戦略　市場の混乱防ぐ舵取りが要る（6月21日付・読売社説）

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board is poised to begin scaling back by the end of the year its third round of quantitative monetary easing, a huge stimulus program known as QE3 that has helped shore up the U.S. economy.
　米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が、米国景気を下支えしてきた異例の規模の量的緩和策第３弾（ＱＥ３）を、年内に縮小し始める見通しだ。

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a press conference Wednesday following a two-day meeting of the bank's monetary policy panel, the Federal Open Market Committee, revealed for the first time the central bank's “exit strategy” for normalizing its ultra-easy monetary policy.
　バーナンキＦＲＢ議長は１９日、連邦公開市場委員会（ＦＯＭＣ）後に記者会見し、金融政策を正常に戻す「出口戦略」を初めて明らかにした。

Regarding QE3, under which the the Fed purchases Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds at a monthly pace of $85 billion (about 8.2 trillion yen), Bernanke said it would be “appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year...and we will continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around mid-year,” as long as the country sustains its economic recovery.
　景気回復が順調に進めば、米国債などを毎月８５０億ドル（約８・２兆円）買い入れているＱＥ３について、「年後半にペースを縮小し、来年半ばに購入を終了するのが適切」と述べた。

Sign of confidence

The Fed's announcement of a policy shift toward reducing QE3 and clearly stating a goal for ending it, while predicated on the condition that the U.S. economy continues to grow as expected, received attention worldwide and is certain to have wide-ranging effects.
　条件付きながら、焦点だったＱＥ３の縮小と終了時期を表明した影響は大きい。

Ever since the financial crisis that erupted following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the U.S. central bank has carried out quantitative easing three times to end the crisis and prop up business activity.
　２００８年のリーマン・ショック後、ＦＲＢは、金融危機を収束させるとともに、景気テコ入れのため、量的緩和策を３回にわたって実施してきた。

The long-awaited launch of an exit strategy signals the central bank is ready to make a major change to policies that were aimed at coping with an emergency situation.
いよいよ出口戦略に動き出すことは、非常時に対応した政策の転換を意味する。

Bernanke’s bold remarks appear to be backed by confidence in the fundamentals of the U.S. economy, which have indicated recovery recently. He may also have thought it necessary to dispel a sense of uncertainty in the market over the future of U.S. monetary policy.
　議長の踏み込んだ発言には、最近の米国の景気回復基調に自信を深めていることがうかがえる。金融政策の先行き不透明感を払拭したい狙いもあるのだろう。

Stock prices in New York, however, tumbled on Wednesday with the Dow Jones industrial average closing more than 200 points lower than the previous day, while prices on the Tokyo Stock Exchange also dropped sharply on Thursday.
　しかし、１９日のニューヨーク株式市場の株価は、前日比２００ドル以上も値下がりし、２０日の東京市場の株価も大幅に下落した。

These declines were largely due to a surge in investors selling shares out of fears that cash flowing into the market may dwindle.
　株式市場への資金流入が減少するとの懸念から、日米とも売りが膨らんだのが主因だ。

In the wake of Bernanke’s statement, concerns will likely persist over erratic fluctuations in stock prices and foreign exchange rates in the world's markets, which will present the Fed with the knotty task of preventing market confusion.
　今後も、世界の株価や為替相場の乱高下を招く恐れがある。市場の混乱防止へ、ＦＲＢは難しい舵(かじ)取りを迫られる。

Toward the end of last year, the Fed said it would not lift short-term interest rates from zero until the unemployment rate shrinks to 6.5 percent, while also keeping an eye on inflation. The easy-money measure has been in place since December 2008.
　ＦＲＢは昨年末、異例策の一環として０８年１２月から続けるゼロ金利政策の解除については、インフレ率を見ながら、「失業率が６・５％に下がるまで続ける」という方針を示している。

It is widely believed, however, that the U.S. jobless rate will not move from the current 7.6 percent to the Fed's target until 2014 at the earliest. Improvement in the U.S. employment situation has remained slow, making a full-fledged economic recovery uncertain.
　ただし、現在７・６％の失業率が６・５％に低下するのは早くても１４年とみられる。雇用情勢の改善は緩慢で、本格的な景気回復は不透明だ。

Learn from U.S. challenges

Moreover, possible adverse impacts on business activities of fiscal belt-tightening by the administration of President Barack Obama cannot be underestimated.
オバマ政権の財政引き締めの悪影響も軽視できない。

Will the Fed be able to lift its zero interest rate policy after bringing QE3 to an end without causing market tumult? In this respect, we urge the central bank to use all the tools at its disposal to maintain a “dialogue with the market.”
　混乱なくＱＥ３を終了させ、それに続いて、ゼロ金利政策解除にいつ踏み切るか。ＦＲＢは、「市場との対話」をさらに工夫することが求められよう。

The Bank of Japan, which has also implemented an extraordinary monetary easing policy, should learn from challenges the Fed is now addressing.
　異次元の量的緩和策を続ける日本銀行にとっても、ＦＲＢの課題は「他山の石」と言える。

The BOJ needs to maintain its focus on ending deflation and resuscitating the national economy to maximize the effects of its monetary policy. But sooner or later, the central bank will need to seriously examine how it will dial back these policies.
　当面は、デフレ脱却や日本経済再生を最優先し、緩和効果の最大化を図るべきだが、将来の出口戦略に向け、いずれ本格的に検討を進める必要がある。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 21, 2013)
（2013年6月21日01時20分 読売新聞）